Ok so I've thought a lot about when we will get our next mainstream Mario Kart game, and I realized it will probably not be for a very long time. Let me explain why.
Since the Game Boy Color, there has been one Mario Kart game per system. A lot of people think that this is a sign that Nintendo will release Mario Kart 9 for the Nintendo Switch, but I think Nintendo considers Mario Kart 8 Deluxe to be the Switch's Mario Kart game. Here's why. When Nintendo first released Mario Kart 8 for the Wii U, almost everyone who played it loved it, but not many people actually played it. It only, as of now, has sold 8.6 million units. Nintendo probably felt it would be a waste if they had a good game that almost no one got to play. This is likely why they decided to port it to the Switch. Since so few people played it on the Wii U, it would be like a new game to a lot of people. I'm sure they knew that porting a Mario Kart game instead of releasing a new one would make a lot of people angry, so they decided to release DLC for Mario Kart 8. This way, people may feel better because while it was true that they were missing out on a Mario Kart game for the Switch, they had gotten a much bigger game than usual on the Wii U. They had gotten 16 additional tracks, so Mario Kart 8 had 1.5 times as many tracks as what usually appear in a Mario Kart game.
Nintendo's plan worked. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe sold 26.5 millions units, which is about 3 times what Mario Kart 8 sold, and Mario Kart 8 Deluxe is still selling units. Therefore, at the very least, Mario Kart 8 Deluxe was a new game to 16 million people, and probably much more. Additionally, Mario Kart 8 Deluxe did offer A LITTLE new content that was not present in Mario Kart 8, which was the new battle mode. It's big enough the some Super hardcore Mario Kart fans might get Mario Kart 8 Deluxe despite having the Wii U version. I fall into this category, I own both games. So yea, since most people consider Mario Kart 8 Deluxe to be a new game, Nintendo probably won't release an additional Mario Kart game for the Switch.
I think Mario Kart 9 will probably be a launch title for the Nintendo Switch's successor. I assume that will come out around late 2023 to early 2024. The Nintendo Switch's momentum is showing no current signs of slowing down, so I think it is safe to assume its successor won't be out for another three years at least. Its true that that will create a 7 year gap between Mario Kat 8 Deluxe and Mario Kart 9, and almost a 10 year gap between Mario Kart 8 and Mario Kart 9, but unfortunately I think this will be the case. Keep in mind that the Mario Kart series won't have been completely dormant during that time. Nintendo did release Mario Kart Tour, which I very much enjoy and still play, despite some people not liking it. I think the release of this game, and the fact that Nintendo still releases updates for it regularly, just further proves it will be a pretty long time until we next get a Mario Kart game. I think it will not be until the new system is released.
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