Diablo 3

The first white whale – caught!

diablo19 - The first white whale - caught!
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Well, I guess you could make a claim for Liv Moore to be a white whale as well, but she was comparatively easy to pick up.

Still, after 149 runs through Whimsyshire, over the course of eight days or so, a goal was achieved:

Many unicorns died to bring me this frame…

I posted some stats a few days ago as to how things looked after 100 days, and said I'd come back with an update at 200 – well, 149 will have to do, though I am considering going back to Whimsyshire at some stage to increase my run count and get a better feel for some of the statistical questions out there. After all, most of the information on spawn rates, etc, seems to be quite old. Not sure how many runs I'll need to get solid data, but I assume 1k+. That's a topic for another day, though.

Unique Enemies, by frequency

  • Super Awesome Sparkle Cake (76 runs)
  • Evil Oliver (73 runs)
  • Maisie the Daisy, Nightmarity (5 runs)
  • Midnight Sparkle (4 runs)
  • Tubbers (3 runs)
  • Creampuff (2 runs)
  • Princess Stardust, Team Unicorn, Sir William (1 run)

There was a big swing here between EO and SASC over these extra 49 runs – SASC appeared 30 times, to EO's 19 appearances. They are now closer to in parity over the 149 runs than they were at 100, but I wonder how close they'd be after 200. Creampuff also showed up, so once Sir William appeared we'd had the whole set.

In terms of who spawns with which of EO and SASC, I don't think we've got enough data for this to be meaningful, but it is still interesting:

Evil OliverSuper Awesome Sparkle Cake
Creampuff2
Maisie the Daisy41
Midnight Sparkle31
Nightmarity32
Princess Stardust1
Team Unicorn1
Tubbers12
Sir William1

Everyone has shown up alongside SASC, but we've got four gaps alongside EO. With enough runs, I don't think this would remain the case, but I'd want more data to be sure.

In terms of an overall spawn rate for the non-boss Uniques, I saw 23 spawns on 149 runs – that's a little over 15% chance of one of those Uniques to spawn on a given run, but it currently looks like some spawns are rarer than others.

Expected number of Champion and Elite mobs

The previously-established pattern of two or three spawns each for Champion and Elite mobs has continued – I don't see that changing without a patch, to be honest with you. As before, the more interesting data is in whether Evil Oliver or Super Awesome Sparkle Cake influence how many of each there are.

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No. of mobsEvil OliverSuper Awesome Sparkle Cake
Champion23842
33534
Elite23541
33836

I would still say that, overall, there doesn't appear to be any bias at work here. For the 30 additional times that SASC appeared, though, it felt like there was a bit of a bias in the number of Elite spawns, as that was a 20/10 split in favour of two groups of elites. It might have swung back had I reached the full 200 runs, though.

MobsEvil OliverSuper Awesome Sparkle Cake
2 Champion, 2 Elite1922
2 Champion, 3 Elite1920
3 Champion, 2 Elite1619
3 Champion, 3 Elite1715

Evil Oliver seems to have a fairly even distribution of the Champion/Elite combinations – Super Awesome Sparkle Cake appears to be a little low in terms of 3/3 pairs, but I don't think it is significant yet. More data is definitely required here.

Transmogrification Weapon Spawns

I didn't actually get any more Spectrum or Horaldric Hamburger drops during these last 49 runs. Given I wasn't clicking on Happy Clouds – well, not on purpose, anyway – I'm not too surprised by the lack of an additional Hamburger, though I might've expected an additional Spectrum by this point.

Cursed Chests and Pinatas

I said at the end of the last post that I'd be looking at spawn rates for these – and in the case of the Cursed Chests, I'd guess my mind was playing tricks on me before. I'd thought I'd seen a chest in each of the first 100 runs, but that now seems unlikely. Of these last 49 runs, a Cursed Chest appeared only 25 times, while a Pinata appeared in 12 runs. Interestingly, in 9 of those 12 cases, they were both in the same map.

That would appear to give us around a 50% chance of a Chest appearing, and a 25% chance of a Pinata appearing. We need more data to make this conclusive, though.

Other questions

Are there other questions which have occurred to me as I've been doing these runs? Absolutely.

  • Do Cursed Chests and Pinatas appearing affect the number of Pots of Gold on a map?
  • Does the side of an island you encounter a "boss" unique on affect the odds of which one it is?
  • Why is the background music so annoying in Whimsyshire?

I might try to answer two of these if (or when) I revisit this data collection exercise, but for now I'm taking a break from it…

…in order to hunt down Rainbow Goblins for a chance at the Cosmic Wings. I'm following an approach set out by a poster called ReachTheSky three years or so ago, and I'm interested to see if the odds that were claimed for Goblin spawns hold up. I did 12 full runs before the start of the season, and I'll be returning to that quest today. 100 Goblins have already been exterminated on that question, with only one Rainbow Goblin amongst them – how many more will it take?

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