Recently, I created a
The loot drop rules in the game prevent certain items from dropping with certain properties, such as Black Powder guns with Quad, Energy weapons as Explosive, Launchers as Explosive or Wood armor as 2-3*. In addition, 0-star Drills and Syringes can drop which also take away chances from other kinds of drops.
Seeing the numbers, such as 1 in 6.25 million chance for a god-tier AAE Handmade, makes me wish for a preferential drop system.
I did a couple of experiments with different enemy-drop star setups to see how certain effects and items would drop. All experiments were run with 100,000,000 rounds.
- Default enemy-drop stars: the site's default enemy distribution and item star distribution
- Max star drops only: each enemy drops only max star items, enemy distribution default
- 90-9-1% rule + max star drops: enemy star distribution as the numbers, max item star drops only
- My loot drops: based on this table.
|Property||Default enemy-drop stars||Max star drops only||90-9-1% rule + max star drops||My loot drops|
|Faster fire rate drops||0.530% ~ 1:189||0.930% ~ 1:108||0.372%||0.49%|
|Explosive drops||0.320% ~ 1:313||0.559% ~ 1:179||0.224%||0.16%|
|2-3* Anti-armor /FFR||0.024197% ~ 1:4,133||0.042617% ~ 1:2,346||0.017146% ~ 1:5,832||0.11% (AA-Limb)|
|2-3* Anti-armor/Explosive||0.014881% ~ 1:6,720||0.025274% ~ 1:3,957||0.010373% ~ 1:9,640||0.054% (Assassin's/E)|
|3* Anti-armor/FFR/Reduced weight||0.000979% ~ 1:102,145||0.003817% ~ 1:26,199||0.000208% ~ 1:48,077||0.054% (Exterminator's/FFR/AGI)|
|3* Anti-armor/Explosive/Reduced weight||0.000557% ~ 1:179,533||0.002277% ~ 1:43,917||0.000101% ~ 1:990,099||0.054% (Junkie's/E/DR)|
|2-3* Bloodied/Swing speed||0.041032% ~ 1:2,437||0.072469% ~ 1:1,379||0.028704% ~ 1:3,483||0.110% (Bloodied/PowerAttack)|
|3* Bloodied/Swing speed/+Strength||0.002399% ~ 1:41,684||0.009691% ~ 1:10,319||0.000431% ~ 1:232,019||0.110% (Bloodied/PowerAttack/Blocking)|
|3* Assassin's/*/Sentinel||0.011616% ~ 1:8,609||0.046309% ~ 1:2,159||0.002422% ~ 1:41,288||0.054% (Weightless/Per/Sentinel)|
|2-3* AAE Handmade||0.000501% ~ 1:199,601||0.000813% ~ 1:123,001||0.000343% ~ 1:291,545||0.054% (Assassin's/E)|
|2-3* AA FFR Handmade||0.000489% ~ 1:204,499||0.000863% ~ 1:115,875||0.000337% ~ 1:296,736||0.054% (Vampire's/VATS hit)|
|3* AAE Reduced weight Handmade||0.000016% ~ 1:6,250,000||0.000070% ~ 1:1,428,571||0.000005% ~ 1:20,000,000||0.054% (PA shotgun: Junkie's/E/DR)|
|3* AA FFR Reduced weight Handmade||0.000025% ~ 1:4,000,000||0.000080% ~ 1:1,250,000||0.000004% ~ 1:25,000,000||0.054% (Executioner's/VATS Dmg/VATS crit)|
|2-3* Bloodied/Swing speed Deathclaw Gauntlet||0.000489% ~ 1:204,499||0.001699% ~ 1:58,858||0.000665% ~ 1:150,375||0.054% (Assassin's/Speed)|
|3* Bloodied/Swing speed/Strength Deathclaw Gauntlet||0.000064% ~ 1:1,562,500||0.000228% ~ 1:347,222||0.000009% ~ 1:11,111,111||0.054% (Mutant's/Power attack/AGI)|
|3* Assassin's/*/Sentinel Marine Armor||0.000612% ~ 1:163,399||0.002497% ~ 1:40,048||0.000143% ~ 1:699,301||0.054% (Nocturnal/Int/Sneak)|
Note most effect combinations would look like the same. For example, a BE Handmade and AAE Handmade would have the same chances as AA and B have the same chances. Similarly, an AAE Handmade and an AAE Gatling gun would have the same chances. Similarly, an AAFFR and a BFFR would have the same chances as both can drop unconditionally.
If initial conditions or the number of drops evaluated are not satisfactory , please use the simulator and search for items/effects as you want. Note that the loot pool is generally too large and most enemies can drop any kind of loot. Therefore, if you find missing items from the simulator, thus questioning the numbers, consider that a larger pool will just reduce the individual chances even further.
Note also that my own loot drop statistics is for 1,824 drops only, nowhere near 100 million, thus a 1-1 comparison on the very rare occurrences would be foolish. Also in many cases, I did not get that specific effect/item so I picked the closest individual item stats I had. If that's not enough, please play the game for 3,000 years and report your results back.
Source: Original link
© Post "Evaluating loot drops outcome from my simulator" for game Fallout.
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