Evaluating loot drops outcome from my simulator

fallout 6 - Evaluating loot drops outcome from my simulator

Recently, I created a
dropsim - Evaluating loot drops outcome from my simulator

loot drop simulator and evaluator website to evaluate how non-biased loot drop statistics profile would look like. Non-biased means that each item and each legendary effect has equal chance to show up on their own and there is no preferentiality based on previous drops. However, there are game drop rules that have to be considered.

The loot drop rules in the game prevent certain items from dropping with certain properties, such as Black Powder guns with Quad, Energy weapons as Explosive, Launchers as Explosive or Wood armor as 2-3*. In addition, 0-star Drills and Syringes can drop which also take away chances from other kinds of drops.


Seeing the numbers, such as 1 in 6.25 million chance for a god-tier AAE Handmade, makes me wish for a preferential drop system.


I did a couple of experiments with different enemy-drop star setups to see how certain effects and items would drop. All experiments were run with 100,000,000 rounds.

  • Default enemy-drop stars: the site's default enemy distribution and item star distribution
  • Max star drops only: each enemy drops only max star items, enemy distribution default
  • 90-9-1% rule + max star drops: enemy star distribution as the numbers, max item star drops only
  • My loot drops: based on this table.

PropertyDefault enemy-drop starsMax star drops only90-9-1% rule + max star dropsMy loot drops
0* drops1.046%1.046%1.045%0.603%
1* drops85.221%74.848%89.322%85.41%
2* drops8.911%4.814%8.669%9.16%
3* drops4.882%19.262%0.964%4.82%
Wood drops2.618%2.622%2.620%5.59%
Leather drops7.849%7.854%7.859%11.95%
Anti-armor drops3.330%3.324%3.325%2.03%
Quad drops2.068%2.068%2.069%0.66%
Faster fire rate drops0.530% ~ 1:1890.930% ~ 1:1080.372%0.49%
Explosive drops0.320% ~ 1:3130.559% ~ 1:1790.224%0.16%
2-3* Anti-armor /FFR0.024197% ~ 1:4,1330.042617% ~ 1:2,3460.017146% ~ 1:5,8320.11% (AA-Limb)
2-3* Anti-armor/Explosive0.014881% ~ 1:6,7200.025274% ~ 1:3,9570.010373% ~ 1:9,6400.054% (Assassin's/E)
3* Anti-armor/FFR/Reduced weight0.000979% ~ 1:102,1450.003817% ~ 1:26,1990.000208% ~ 1:48,0770.054% (Exterminator's/FFR/AGI)
3* Anti-armor/Explosive/Reduced weight0.000557% ~ 1:179,5330.002277% ~ 1:43,9170.000101% ~ 1:990,0990.054% (Junkie's/E/DR)
2-3* Bloodied/Swing speed0.041032% ~ 1:2,4370.072469% ~ 1:1,3790.028704% ~ 1:3,4830.110% (Bloodied/PowerAttack)
3* Bloodied/Swing speed/+Strength0.002399% ~ 1:41,6840.009691% ~ 1:10,3190.000431% ~ 1:232,0190.110% (Bloodied/PowerAttack/Blocking)
3* Assassin's/*/Sentinel0.011616% ~ 1:8,6090.046309% ~ 1:2,1590.002422% ~ 1:41,2880.054% (Weightless/Per/Sentinel)
2-3* AAE Handmade0.000501% ~ 1:199,6010.000813% ~ 1:123,0010.000343% ~ 1:291,5450.054% (Assassin's/E)
2-3* AA FFR Handmade0.000489% ~ 1:204,4990.000863% ~ 1:115,8750.000337% ~ 1:296,7360.054% (Vampire's/VATS hit)
3* AAE Reduced weight Handmade0.000016% ~ 1:6,250,0000.000070% ~ 1:1,428,5710.000005% ~ 1:20,000,0000.054% (PA shotgun: Junkie's/E/DR)
3* AA FFR Reduced weight Handmade0.000025% ~ 1:4,000,0000.000080% ~ 1:1,250,0000.000004% ~ 1:25,000,0000.054% (Executioner's/VATS Dmg/VATS crit)
2-3* Bloodied/Swing speed Deathclaw Gauntlet0.000489% ~ 1:204,4990.001699% ~ 1:58,8580.000665% ~ 1:150,3750.054% (Assassin's/Speed)
3* Bloodied/Swing speed/Strength Deathclaw Gauntlet0.000064% ~ 1:1,562,5000.000228% ~ 1:347,2220.000009% ~ 1:11,111,1110.054% (Mutant's/Power attack/AGI)
3* Assassin's/*/Sentinel Marine Armor0.000612% ~ 1:163,3990.002497% ~ 1:40,0480.000143% ~ 1:699,3010.054% (Nocturnal/Int/Sneak)

Note most effect combinations would look like the same. For example, a BE Handmade and AAE Handmade would have the same chances as AA and B have the same chances. Similarly, an AAE Handmade and an AAE Gatling gun would have the same chances. Similarly, an AAFFR and a BFFR would have the same chances as both can drop unconditionally.

If initial conditions or the number of drops evaluated are not satisfactory , please use the simulator and search for items/effects as you want. Note that the loot pool is generally too large and most enemies can drop any kind of loot. Therefore, if you find missing items from the simulator, thus questioning the numbers, consider that a larger pool will just reduce the individual chances even further.

Note also that my own loot drop statistics is for 1,824 drops only, nowhere near 100 million, thus a 1-1 comparison on the very rare occurrences would be foolish. Also in many cases, I did not get that specific effect/item so I picked the closest individual item stats I had. If that's not enough, please play the game for 3,000 years and report your results back.

Source: Original link

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