Fallout

I crafted 300 pieces of SS armor and recorded some data points. I think there is a pattern we can leverage.

fallout 8 - I crafted 300 pieces of SS armor and recorded some data points. I think there is a pattern we can leverage.
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TLDR; This is mostly speculated theory with some strong correlated data to support it. Time your rolls based on "Pools" and roll in rapid succession during a favorable pool member for the gear prefix you want. See pool Table (still in the works) for which pieces are relatively likely to roll in the same time-frame as another. For example, if you want to get UNY gear, and your first roll is troubleshooter, come back later or jumps servers can you can try that again.Tested so far on PS4 (300+ rolls) and PC (74 rolls)

My observed "prefix pools"

  • Pool 1
    • Unyielding
    • Bolstering
    • Ghoul Slayer
    • Mutant Slayer
    • Zealot's
  • Pool 2
    • Troubleshooter
    • Cloaking
    • Vanguard
    • Weightless
    • Regenerating
  • Pool 3 (Incomplete)
    • Assassin's
    • Exterminators

The Long Story

Some background, I'm a software developer. I know a few things about calculation of RNG in software, artificial intelligence, etc. The short of it is, I know there is no true RNG in coding. Its close, but it can't be for many reasons I don't know all of but know enough about to say I believe its not here yet. With that, I also noticed, with some help of friends, and some claims in some F76 communities, that legendary rolls (starting back with purveyor's release) that there were "favorable" times for rolling gear. I think they had something here. I'd like to share what I have tested, and hopefully pick up a few others to help me out on it.

Disclaimer

This isn't 100% for sure. As funny as it sounds, with the amount of data we've plotted, we're still subject to some "coincidence" but I'm fine with publishing this now after some debate. You won't be guaranteed the roll you want, and I'll get into that later. This has stood pretty firm for patches 20-21 which is when we did the bulk of the testing. I'm sorry, if you find that these did not work for you. We've also seen about 20% of the time, you get the item in the pool you are in. Some of my friends had worse odds, and didn't see it at all.

About my claimed "prefix pools"

I didn't know what else to call them, but Basically the just is, during a certain amount of time (which we haven't come close to knowing yet) you are subject to a "weighting" in a particular pool. I'm guessing its based on time and changes as time goes on, but there are other factors which I'll note later. The just of it is, if you want to roll gear, you need to first, sample a few rolls, to have an idea of which "pool" you are in. I usually roll 10 times when i get a favorable pool member.

RNG Points

This is by far the biggest guess for me. But I think certain factors like time, location data, server, etc. effect the pool timings. If you are in a bad pool time. You need to wait. Like really wait. I tried in an hour and couldn't get anything outside of a pool once. Just wait, or change the type of server. I haven't seen much difference in public servers, but one thing I've noticed is private servers, tend to have some additional factor that may effect the loot pools. So change up some points if you need to try a different pool. Jump to a buddies private (or yours), or back to public, wait an hour or so, wait a day, Change what you want to craft (weapon craft vs purveyor roll weapon vs purveyor roll melee vs SS armor craft). Let me know if you want to share your rolls (see below).

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Real example

My 6th character (I play PS4 and PC) I was finishing a UNY SS set. I got 4/5 UNY pieces in about 40 rolls. So based on my either extreme luck, or theory being accurate, I'm willing to go on a limb and say this works most of the time. I started rolling a pool and hit Troubleshooter. I then noted this, and rolled 15 times. I received 3 troubleshooter, 3 vanguard, 4 cloaking, 1 weightless, and 4 Regenerating prefixed SS Left legs with varying major/minor effects.

I rolled again for Left Arm, similar results, 10 times. No new prefix was created. I stopped. Jumped to a friends private server, and tried again.

First roll was a Bolstering piece. I liked that prefix so i went to town. I resulted in 11 rolls with these prefix spreads:

Bolstering: 3, Unyielding: 1, Ghoul Slayer: 2, Mutant Slayer: 2, Zealot's: 3

Unfortunately, the major/minor seem to be another "level" of RNG on top of prefix but for me its as humanly close I would say to guessing when to roll. There is just no way you can guys any more closely than that without some kind of machine assistance which is cheating so no thanks.

Hey it didn't work!!!!

Ok, so those pools are NOT an exact science. But its pretty close from what we're seeing. The pool members may not be exact, so you may need to tweak your rolls accordingly. If you see Unyielding first and that's what you want, probably a good idea to keep going if you are looking to upgrade the UNY gear. (PLEASE share your rolls on this desired items pool). Experiment a little on your own because you may have a different pool based on your RNG points.

Conclusion

This should help you save some grind/modules. I also believe this is true for weapon rolling but haven't tested it. I also think the purveyor is subject to this but those pools would be massive, and my guess is they are also weighted terribly out of your favor. I'll probably never have time to test it enough to draw any conclusions.

My ask of you if willing

If you are in the business of crafting SS gear, please, try this out and record or report back here. I'm curious to see what other factors could effect the correlation of the rolls, and if you guys think I'm just out of my mind. Thanks.

Format for sharing your data:

  • Server type (public/private)
  • Location (country) from server perspective if you know it. Joining a buddy in UK would be UK server
  • Type of roll (craft/purveyor and ranged/melee weapon or armor)
  • Number of rolls and what they were
    • Screenshots of rolls if possible
    • Recording if possible I'll analyze the footage for you

Send these to me in message, comment here, or find me on discord from this subreddit.

I hope to make a video of what I'm talking about here and hopefully it doesn't fall flat on my face. Thanks.

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