Fallout

Loot drop chances roundup (February 27)

fallout 3 - Loot drop chances roundup (February 27)
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I've been logging my loot drops in the past two weeks to get a better understanding of the RNG/loot table in the game. There were some interesting patterns emerging after just 143 items, but after 413 items, its definitely something going on. My character is a Vampiric Heavy Gunner build in Excavator Power Armor with 4 luck. I sold most 1* and 2* drops, gifted a few 3* to other players.

TL;DR

More apparently than before, I get a bias towards certain item types and prefix legendary effects. There could also be a feedback loop that affects subsequent loot drops based on items sold to vendor bots.


3* Loot locations

By far, the Whitesprings circle is the best location to get legendary enemies in an unit of time. 68% of the drop log reflects this location.

Arrival-based:

West Tec (0.97% of data) – 25% chance for a 3* drop

Harper's Ferry (5.81% of data) – 12.5% chance for a 3* drop

Steakhouse (1.94% of data) – 12.5% chance for a 3* drop

Watoga (8.96% of data) – 5.41% chance for a 3* drop

Whitesprings (68% of data) – 2.87% chance for a 3* drop

Event-based:

Blackwater Mine (0.73% of data) – 66.6% chance for a 3* drop (requires Event: Uranium Fewer)

RobCo Research Center (1.21% of data) – 60% chance for a 3* drop (requires Event: AWOL Armaments)

Fissure Prime (1.45% of data) – 33.3% chance for a 3* drop (requires Event: Scorched Earth)

(Note that even though West Tec has a high chance for a 3* drop, I found a low chance, about 1:6, that there will be at least a legendary enemy there. Note also that AWOL is also rare and Uranium Fewer drops up to lvl 40 items. You can get a couple of legendaries from Fissure Prime mobs if you are not preoccupied shooting the Queen.)

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Enemy – Drop star distribution

Enemies are still not guaranteed to drop as many stars as they have. Enemies having no stars in their name but dropping legendary item are considered 1* for simplicity. Not sure if this is a naming bug or deliberate drop on normal enemies.

1* Enemy: 81.6% of all

2* Enemy: 5.33% of all, 50% 2* drop

3* Enemy: 13.08% of all, 24% 2* drop, 47.3% 3* drop

The overal star-drop chances are: 1*88.14%, 2*5.81%, 3*6.05%.


Item type distribution

Those of us playing in power armor may find it disappointing that the loot table is more than 50% armor and the drop chances are stacked against ranged:

Armor: 52.78%

Melee: 27.6%

Ranged: 19.61%


Legendary prefix distribution – Armor

There seems to be a considerable bias towards Weightless and Assassin's legendary modifiers:

Weightless: 9.17%

Assassin's: 7.80%

Bolstering: 7.34%

Auto-stim: 6.42%

Ghoul slayer's: 5.96%

Chameleon: 5.96%

Regenerating: 5.50%

Exterminator's: 5.50%


Legendary prefix distribution – Melee

Melee prefers Bloodied and Nocturnal:

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Bloodied: 8.77%

Nocturnal: 7.89%

Furious: 7.89%

Mutant's: 7.02%

Zealot's: 6.14%

Stalker's: 6.14%

Instigating: 6.14%

Berserker's: 6.14%

Anti-armor: 6.14%


Legendary prefix distribution – Ranged

Furious is pretty outstanding, Two-shot is rare; I haven't found Double or Quad since the log started.

Furious: 13.58%

Hunter's: 8.64%

Vampire's: 7.41%

Troubleshooter's: 7.41%

Ghoul slayer's: 7.41%

Suppressor's: 6.17%

Junkie's: 6.17%

Zealot's: 4.94%

Two-shot: 3.70%

Bloodied: 3.70%

Anti-armor: 3.70%

Instigating: 1.23%


Armor types and parts

Leather is predominant among the drops, followed by the legenary slot wasting Wood:

Leather: 22.48%

Wood: 13.76%

Trapper: 12.39%

Combat: 12.39%

Raider: 11.93%

Metal: 10.09%

Robot: 9.63%

Marine: 7.34%

(Remark: I wear mostly Leather armor parts under the PA.)

The part distribution should be roughly equal, but the Chest Piece and Left Leg drop more:

Chest Piece: 21.10%

Left Arm: 18.81%

Left Leg: 22.02%

Right Arm: 19.72%

Right Leg: 18.35%

Interestingly, Leather Left Arm drops only 8.16% among Leather drops. Wood Right Leg drops only 3.3% among Wood drops.

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Interesting Item drops

There are almost 200 items in the game that can drop, here are a few of them with drop chances:

Leather Right Arm: 3.39%

Leather Left Leg: 3.15%

Wood Left Arm: 2.18%

Leather Chest Piece: 2.18%

Wood Left Leg: 1.94%

Wood Chest Piece: 1.94%

Ski Sword: 1.69%

Mr. Handy Buzz Blade: 1.69%

Western Revolver: 1.45%

Auto Grenade Launcher: 0.97%

Gatling Gun: 0.73%

The Dragon: 0.48%

Hunting Rifle: 0.48%

Handmade: 0.24%


Conclusion

It seems the drops are biased towards on-foot Weightless, Leather armor wearing, PvP fugitive, Bloodied/Furious builds wielding Ski Swords and Western Revolvers.

There seems to be an effect from selling the useless drops as it appears to reinforce the chances of getting that legendary effect again. Not sure if this is a bug or a remedy implemented for accidentally sold legendaries.

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