Fallout

Sony may have shed a light on 76’s launch sales

fallout 4 - Sony may have shed a light on 76's launch sales
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Disclaimer: Apparently this is data from the end of November to the start of December, which means that this covers launch but not patches and sales. It also only covers PS4.

A post over on r/PS4 (all credit to them for the main figures) just outlined how a new feature on PlayStation may have shown total player counts for many games, 76 being one of them.

It shows how many players achieved a trophy as a percentage of the total owners, allowing people to work backwards to figure it out.

The achievement Photo Bomber has 33,000 unlocks (or 8% of the total). Extrapolate that and we see 400,000 PS4 players. This is anybody who has the game activated on their PSN account – not counting anyone who might not have installed or are planning to play at Christmas.

What this means is reports of low sales might have been accurate. There were claims that it was down 80% on UK sales from 4, and that it had only 29% the active players as the previous game.

Fallout 4 sold 12,000,000 copies on launch. On launch week it sold 1,200,000 on Steam and had 470,000 concurrent players on day one. This means that each console might have had 4,800,000-5,500,000 sales on day one.

Compare that to the 400,000 we're seeing from PSN. Total players for nearly two weeks after launch is less than concurrent players on PC for Fallout 4's launch day on the smallest platform.

Other games that have not done well have also got low statistics in this data. It suggests BFV has 200,000 on PlayStation.

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Conversely, Spyro Remastered outsold 76 in the UK charts that spawned the 80% stat and we see that the third game in the bundle had 183,000 people registered during the same period. We don't know for the first two games yet. The third game in a PS1 remastered trilogy has nearly half the players of 76. And this is considering that you can buy and play Spyro without going online, without contributing to these trophy statistics; 76 is always online and tracks only those who have played and those who haven't.

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I mean, I'm terrible at statistics and game industry figures, but am I seeing this correctly that we might be looking at around 3,000,000 sales or fewer for 76 total so far? PS4 is the bigger console, but XB had more beta, which might had evened out sales. And PC seems to be the smallest platform. Even if they all sold equally well, that means 1,200,000 at launch.

Optimistically, it's 25% of 4 (consistent with the 82% drop from 4 that was reported). At worst, 10%.

Right? Wrong? Your thoughts?

TL;DR: 400,000 people own PS4 76 by the start of December. Fallout 4 potentially had 10x the sales on PS4 alone on launch. Even if XB sold more than PS4, we're still perhaps looking at 3 million total sales (sales only – not active players). Even optimistically that's 1/4 of 4's day one sales after 2 weeks of being released.

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