The new BoS armor that’s in the PTS does not have the option to craft legendary variations, and it also untradable.
Let’s assume that you have already learned the plan, and that the RNG is not skewed against you because Todd hates your guts. We will also assume that you haven’t learnt any of the secret service armor plans to keep your loot pool as fresh as possible, and since the Purveyor has a smaller loot pool we shall use that to help you get your gear as quickly as possible. Your goal is to get a specific armor piece. An assassin’s powered sentinel’s BoS chest piece to replace the leather chest piece you lost from the vendor/stash steal glitch (remember, this is hypothetical. Don’t even start with the “I don’t PvP crap”, this is hypothetical.)
There are currently 22 armors in your loot pool (including light, sturdy and heavy variants, and assumes the new BoS armor will not come in the heavy/sturdy/light subcategories.)
This puts your odds of getting a BoS armor piece at 1/22. That doesn’t seem so bad, does it? Its the same as rolling a 20 in D&D. Well now you have to get a chest piece.
There are five potential outcomes for the armor piece – right leg, left leg, chest, right arm, left arm. 1/5 of getting a chest, right? So now it’s a 1/110 chance of getting a BoS chest piece. Ok, you’ve faced worse odds, the chances of getting 7 heads in a row coin tossing are 1/128, and you won that bet with your friend despite the odds. And this is a multiplayer game that you need to have some sort of sense of progression in, rather than having it all handed to you on a plate.
Here’s where the numbers start to really stack up against you. There are 18 different potential prefixes for the first star, so if you wanted a 1* assassins BoS chest piece you’re dealing with 1/22 for BoS, 1/5 for the chest and then 1/18 for assassin’s. You got odds of 1/1980 to get a 1* Assassin’s BoS chest piece. You know what you’re more likely to do? Four times more likely, for that matter? Die of food poisoning. In 2009, roughly 1/500 US deaths were caused by food poisoning
Here’s another layer of RNG for you! You want powered on your chest piece, right? Well there’s a 1/11 chance of the second star being powered. So you rolled a 2* armor piece from the Purveyor, and you’re facing 1/22 for BoS, 1/5 for the desired part, 1/18 for the first star and now you’re piling another layer on top. The odds of all the criteria being met are a whopping 1/21780. Yep, one in twenty one thousand, seven hundred and eighty. You are roughly twice as likely to be injured by a toilet, according to CDC study
So far, the odds here make me want to cry. And knowing I’m more likely to get injured by a toilet than roll a 2* ass/AP BoS chest is quite frankly depressing. But I’m not done yet! Remember what I said earlier? You’re an avid PvPer who lost his PSA heavy leather chest to a glitch and you want to replace it! The odds of rolling sentinel as the third star? One in thirteen. So, with 1/22 odds of getting BoS, 1/5 chance of a chest piece, 1/18 chance of getting assassin’s, 1/11 of getting powered, and 1/13 to get sentinel’s, you’re looking at 1/65340 odds of getting the exact chest piece you want, with an optimised loot pool, from the Purveyor. Similar odds to dying in a tornado, as a matter of fact.This article places the odds of tornado death in the US at roughly 1/60,000. I don’t know about you, but I don’t think I can roll over sixty three thousand armor pieces in my lifetime.
Don’t you think dying in a tornado being more likely than getting your perfect armor piece from the smallest possible loot pool is just a tad excessive when there is literally no other way to get it? Are you going to let a small minority of the playbase ruin it for the hardworking and honest players that have put up with two years of bullshit from you Bethesda? Come on, at least allow us to craft legendary variations if you insist on keeping it untradable.
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