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Let’s calculate the only one thing worst than RNG: llama’s tendency to give you DUPLICATE items

index - Let's calculate the only one thing worst than RNG: llama's tendency to give you DUPLICATE items
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Talking about the troll trucks. Are they really random? Or, even if they are random, I suspect there are some sort of system bugs/flaws that will result you in getting duplicate items.

Spent my $25 and opened two last night. Of all the useless legendaries, I got the f*cking Bear shotgun and the Bandit shotgun AGAIN for the second or third time. I got both of these as trash-rolled legendaries from weapon llama/upgrade llamas before, and yet they still showed up last night. Not to mention, having played so far (PL 48), I haven't opened a single legendary super shredder, seige breaker (scar), razor blade, or death stalker.

So let's do some math (maybe not accurate, just my rough estimation). Say, there are 100 legendaries available for rolling in a troll truck llama, including survivors, heroes, guns, traps, etc. This is probably an underestimated number, but to make the math easier let's just say 100 Now assume we can get five legendaries from the troll truck. Then, the chance for a specific weapon (such as a super sredder) to show up in one troll truck llama is <1-(0.99*5)>=4.9%. So that means:

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  1. let's say there is a 40% chance that the weapon is decent rolled. So each of the five legendary spots has a 2% chance to give you a decent-rolled weapon. Then, opening the troll truck llama has (1-(0.98*5))=9.6% chance of giving you at least one decent rolled legendary. That's not bad, minus how accurate that 40% estimation is, and the weapon can be a melee.

  2. a specific legendary has about 1% chance to show up in regular llamas, so the chance for getting a specific duplicate in a troll truck should be 1%*4.9%=0.049% (~1/2000 chance). (edited) The estimation will be complicated in counting more than one specific weapon's duplication, so I will just stop here…

  3. If the available pool is larger than the estimated 100, then the chances in #1 and #2 would be considerably smaller.

Read:  Why nobody plays STW and how it could get more players.

…Guess I will just stop spending money on llamas.


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