PSA/Guide – The Math Behind Expeditions

FortniteBattleRoyale1 - PSA/Guide - The Math Behind Expeditions


  • It's worth it to level enough heroes to keep your expeditions running full out and as close to full time as possible
  • All the wooden box missions and red box missions are more or less equivalent if you are able to trade materials at e.g. Fortnite Flea Market rates. If you do not trade, you'll end up swimming in Obsidian, Malachite, Char Black & Sleek but still need to farm herbs, bacon, planks rough ore etc.
  • The trap missions are less bad after the introduction of enhanced demolition, but they are still far behind the wood box and red toolbox missions (e.g. War Craft, Get It!, Freighter Raid & Cliffhanger). If Epic wants to balance this they need to be putting 4 star and 3 star traps, and ~4 times as many traps into the high level trap missions (e.g. Yeah, It's totally a trap").
  • There's really no difference among the land/sea/air expeditions except that the air missions don't have red toolbox options. What matters is the slots available … so the dirt bike prop plane the least valuable vehicles, but at least the dirt bike can do lower difficulty red toolbox expeditions.
  • Fortnite Flea Market does have some demand for < T4 materials, but not much. T3 and below materials are pretty much for your personal use.
  • After the XP increase in 8.0, I can't think of any good reason to send any of the survivor missions (unless you just need epic or lower survivors). For end game players at least, that class of missions probably should be replaced with either other resource missions, or a class of missions that yield evo or perk resources.

This analysis is based on 50 expeditions

  • 10 Yeah, It's totally a trap
  • 9 War craft
  • 13 Freighter raid!
  • 11 Cliffhanger
  • 4 Get it!
  • 3 Lightning and plunder

The value of the expedition is calculated using the Fortnite Flea Market ( "Recommended Market Values" spreadsheet (

My approach was to try to keep as many expeditions in flight as possible. Generally I'd send one if I could get at least a 70% chance of success. I had as many 130 heroes as needed to fill out the expeditions and match the class bonuses.

The Expected Value of each Expedition is:

  • Yeah, It's totally a trap: 600, or 24/hour after adjusting for and average success rate of 89%
  • War craft: 2890, or 116/hour after adjusting for and average success rate of 88%
  • Freighter raid!: 3416, or 140/hour after adjusting for and average success rate of 90%
  • Cliffhanger: 3406 or 115/hour after adjusting for and average success rate of 75% (the prop plane …)
  • Get it!: 3810 or149/hour after adjusting for and average success rate of 86%
  • Lightning and plunder 706, or 44/hour after adjusting for a 100% success rate

For reference, a single sunbeam crystal is "worth" 120

A useful bit of additional data for comparison would be to see how much value can be obtained per hour by skilled farming (e.g. with Archaelo Jess) in L94 or 100 zones. I may try that at some point.

If you want the raw data & calculations, DM me.

Source: Original link

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