Fortnite

The Math behind 3.5

Fortnite Battle Royale Halloween 1024x576 - The Math behind 3.5
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Hey guys, Whitesushi here. I'm not sure if any of you guys remember but I used to do math posts revolving around specific patches like the ones I did for patch 1.8 and patch 1.7. The main reason why they aren't as common is because

  1. Patches lately don't impact core mechanics much
  2. Other members in the community have covered the gaps (i.e in this post)

Essentially, there hasn't been much to write about. That said, I feel that this patch in particular is worth discussing because save the world got more lines in the patch notes than battle royale. Kidding, it's really because farming StS event is a thing, there are some new and noteworthy heroes as well as the fact that you guys seem to enjoy my previous breakdown of the event store so I thought I would do it again.

Either way if you are new to my guides or just interested in understanding the game better, I will leave a few links here for you guys to check out

  • My Fortnite Spreadsheet
  • My recent guide to perk rolls (3rd April 2018)
  • My slightly less recent guide to survivors (advanced)> (2nd April 2018)
  • My guide to skill points (27th March 2018)
  • My guide on Shadowshard vs Obsidian (14th March 2018)

Last but not least I am a Twitch partner but I have since stopped streaming since a year ago. That said, I still actively hang out in other Fortnite Stw streams. If you're the type who enjoys watching streams and having that background noise while you play or simply want to watch some informative end game gameplay, here's a few I would personally recommend

Slygumbi AlluraSC Sylon Tomithan TcThief


Into the Storm Tickets

Alright so this event gives some nice heroes, some nice energy based weapons and all that good stuff. But what does the process look like if I'm trying to farm these tickets? What's the most efficient way to go about doing this? So let me just leave you guys with a table <– This image is taken from my spreadsheet while the table below is just a condensed version of it.

Mission Level In-game days Tickets Tckets/Hr Spring It On! Spring/Hr
15 3 30+300 790 55 132
15 7 60+750 831 145 149
40 3 45+450 1186 80 192
40 7 90+1125 1247 205 210
70 3 60+600 1581 100 240
70 7 120+1500 1663 260 267

This is assuming the player only takes 8.35 minutes per day (skipping as soon as the day comes up). Clearly we can't get a good read on how efficient this is just looking at the StS rewards. We want to compare it to the mission rewards which I found to be

Mission Level Tickets Tickets/Hr
15 100 300
40 145 435
70 205 615

For the mission rewards, we of course assuming the mission takes 20 minutes (as with all radars/encampments/survivors) and the tickets/hr is derived as such. At a glance, farming StS is definitely more efficient than farming regular missions for survivor tickets. However, there are some limits to these rewards being every 24 hours,

  • 3 days Into the Storm – 3 times
  • 7 days Into the Storm – 1 time
  • Regular mission tickets – 10 times

I have also conveniently left Spring It On gold out of this analysis because I don't have the numbers for those this analysis is meant to revolve around Into the Storm tickets

So going by these 2 tables, the maximum amount of tickets you can farm per day would be 5650. However, if you are farming PL100 missions instead for that 240 tickets/ mission, the total tickets per day would come out to exactly 6000 tickets (6 Into the Storm llamas). To farm that much, the player would need to spend 334 minutes per day which translates to 5.56 hours of farming. I mean that's assuming you are super efficient with 0 downtime so realistically, the hours should be closer to 6 hours which means that for this event, the end Twine player obtains 1 llama / hour

Now before I get called out for this, you can definitely continue farming Survive the Storm for more tickets but that's like 60/3 days at best (which is really inefficient) so I'm not really factoring that in. It is also worth noting that buying llamas and completing event questline gives Into the Storm tickets as well but I'm not concerned with that method since it isn't repeatable


The Possibilities

So what if we want to obtain a specific hero from this event? How many llamas am I looking to open to have an almost guaranteed chance? Unfortunately, we don't know how long this event is going to last and exactly like my past analyses, we will work backwards. There is a total of 20 possible event rewards

  • Assuming their chances are equal

In the past, the chances of obtaining any specific hero is 10% (since Epic/Legendary both give the same hero). But now that we have deep choice, it basically means that as long as we land on "hero", we have a 50% chance of getting the hero we want. (All possible combinations are 1-2,1-3,1-4,2-3,2-4,3-4 and any number shows up 3/6 times). That means the chances of obtaining any specific hero now is 20%. Using the probability formula

Probability = 1 - (1 - x)^y 

where x is 20% and y is an unknown, the number of llamas you have to open. Since we want guaranteed, the probability needs to be at least 95% and that is achieved when number of llamas opened is equivalent to 14 which gives us a 95.6% probability of getting the hero we want.

The Scenarios

Assuming that the event lasts 2 months (60 days) which is pretty typical of the more recent events

  • The super casual player needs to play at least 1 hour per day for 9 of the days if he's farming 7 days survive the storm (most efficient). In total, that's only 9 hours over 2 months to have a pretty good shot at getting the hero he wants. Alternatively if he's only farming regular missions, he needs to complete a total of 68 missions which translates to 22.8 hours over 2 months, 1.13 missions of 20 minutes per day

In fact he doesn't even have to play that much since the quest line gives tickets as well which shortens the grind on regular missions significantly.

But for the rest trying to grind out llamas

  • The regular player playing an hour a day for 60 days (doing 7 days StS because that's the most efficient) would be able to obtain at least 97200 tickets that translates into 92 llamas (That's honestly pretty good)

Not to mention the additional rewards in the form of 60 legendary schematics/ transforms, 1182000 xp spread across the various different types and like 15600 Spring It On gold

  • If the player invests an additional 1.5 hours per day (2.5 hours total) farming out his 3 days StS as well, he would get an additional 1980 tickets per day which puts him at 216000 tickets, 216 llamas (Insane)

Same amount of legendary schematics/transforms as above but 2304000 XP spread out and 33600 Spring It On Gold

  • Lastly if the player goes all the way and farms out his 10 regular missions as well, that will put him at 6 hours of playtime per day but yielding 6000 tickets per day. Over 60 days, he obtains a total of 360000 tickets translating into 360 llamas.

  • However if the same player spends 6 hours farming out 7 day StS for the other rewards instead of regular missions for tickets. He will only obtain 3960 tickets per day. Over 60 days, he obtains a total of 237600 tickets translating to 237 llamas. Despite this however, the player would have farmed 3 additional legendary transform/schematic per day which adds up to 180 in 60 days (That's insane).

Read:  /r/Fortnite Best Of 2018 Contest

Summary

In terms of efficiency ticket wise, farming out the daily limits for StS and then transition to regular missions would be the most optimal way to go. However, it is found that even though you earn ~50% more tickets spending the extra hours farming regular missions as opposed to farming StS beyond the daily limit, the alternative gives you 400% more legendary schematics/transforms. In this case, the later is undoubtedly the "superior choice". In essence

  • For ticket farming, you should prioritize <1> 7 days > <3> 3 days > <10> Regular missions
  • For legendary rewards farming, you should do <1> 7 days > 7 days
  • For overall efficiency, you should do <1> 7 days > <3> 3 days > 7 days

Is it worth it?

So is farming Survive the Storm worth it? Just imagine yourself buying a Super X llama. This llama guarantees 1 legendary which is pretty similar to doing 1 survive the storm 7 days event at PL 70. However in terms of time spent,

  • Super X llama costs 1000 V-Bucks which takes a cumulative 20 dailies that could potentially take up to 3 games per daily. In other words, we're looking at 1200 minutes of farming per Legendary + 1000 Into the Storm tickets

  • Survive the Storm takes an hour (60 minutes) so we're looking at 60 minutes of farming per Legendary + 1620 tickets

In fact, 20 daily missions would span over a period of 20 days during which you can easily farm 20 legendaries doing survive the storm for an hour a day. That is easily 20 times the efficiency. No matter how you look at it, farming survive the storm 7 days is extremely worth it as long as you want those shiny legendary stuff.

and of course if you have the time

and maybe a dedicated group to ease the pain of playing with randoms


The New Heroes

I also want to take this opportunity to talk about the new heroes a bit. A lot of you guys have been prompting me to update the tier list on my spreadsheet but I really want to take more time to understand, try out the heroes and also gather more feedback so that will have to wait. That said, from a strictly numbers perspective as in the case of this post, here's my thoughts on them

–Bullet Storm–

Let's compare him to some of the other staple Soldiers being Special Forces and Urban Assault. If we put their noteworthy weapon perks in a table, it would look something like

Perk Bullet Storm Special Forces Urban Assault
Assault Damage 10% 34% 10%
Fire Rate 48% 0% 50%
Magazine 40% 40% 0%
Deb Shots 25% 15% 45%
Reload 35% 30% 0%

In terms of DPS with a Gravedigger for example, the table looks something like this. The DPS of Bullet Storm actually beats out Urban Assault by 12.55%. However, it is a lot harder for the wind up mechanic of Bullet Storm to kick in as opposed to Urban Assault's make it rain. If we were to factor out that perk altogether, the new numbers look like this (Special Forces beats out Bullet Storm by 14.26% DPS). So at this point, we need to ask ourselves… at what % of fire rate does Bullet Storm beat out these 2 other Soldiers? Luckily, that's what I'm here for

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  • to beat Special Forces, Bullet Storm comes out on top at 19.2% fire rate which is 8 shots taken
  • to beat Urban Assault, Bullet Storm comes out on top at 26.4% fire rate which is 11 shots taken

Of course these numbers are underestimations since it assumes you have the specified fire rate from the first shot which isn't the case. Furthermore we need to consider the capabilities of the other abilities which Bullet Storm loses out to both

  • Special Forces has a much stronger War Cry
  • Urban Assault has Keep Out!!! grenades which are amazing

On paper, he's basically a Special Forces that fires faster as he goes and with better debilitating shots. Personally I'd say he's an absolutely worse Urban Assault but almost on par with Special Forces (better against tankier targets)

–Heavy Base–

Heavy Base brings a new mechanic to the table being that his BASE explodes after every 30 kills. In order to understand the potency of this ability, I went ahead to reverse calculate the base damage and found it to be 45. For reference, Frag Grenades are 101, Dragon Slash is 95 and Bull Rush is 60. In other words everytime this ability triggers, it's akin to throwing 1/2 a Soldier's grenade in a large area.

Next we consider the uptime on this ability. In most scenarios I don't think a player's funnel is going to get 30 kills per wave so we're realistically looking at 1 trigger every 2 waves (50% uptime) or 1 trigger every 3 waves (33% uptime). If we take the better number and compare this to Frag Grenades which have a 4% uptime, this is actually pretty amazing in terms of overall damage where the explosions are expected to do 5.569 times the damage of Frag Grenades overall. That's not all. This constructor also possess Machinist perk which boosts your traps as well as Mega BASE that expands the reach of BASE. In comparison

Capabilities Heavy BASE Machinist Mega BASE
Reach 6 4 7
Damage 30%-
Reload 30% 30%
Building Health 15% 15%
Electrified Floors Yes Yes Yes
Noteworthies BASE Explosions Recycling 50% more Reflect

On paper, Heavy BASE is absolutely insane because compared to the other top tier constructors. Compared to the Machinist, we're really only looking at 30% damage versus 2 additional reach. The exploding base should theoretically make up for the loss of trap damage in which case the additional reach comes in huge. Against the MEGA BASE, the loss of 1 tile of reach and a couple of other non consequential effects easily puts Heavy BASE ahead for his reload. That is not to mention his BASE explosions is likely the "strongest" ability in the game in terms of damage dealt * uptime.

–Harvester–

Harvester is a Ninja that specializes in using Scythes and has several perks buffing her melee damage. In this regard, the most reasonable comparison would be to Swordmaster Ken. Placing both of them in a table, we see that

Ability Harvester Swordmaster
Damage 72% 119%
Crit% 20%
Others Snare & Dim Mak Movement Speed

In terms of raw damage, if we were to compare both the energy weapons being Reaper Scythe vs Stormblade, the numbers look like this. The sword setup results in a 31.72% greater DPS. In other words, the real difference between the two which we are interested in would be

  • Swordmaster : 31.72% DPS & Movement Speed
  • Harvester : Snare & Dim Mak

Personally, I would say Swordmaster still comes out ahead because attack speed is important on melee weapons and movement speed indirectly translates into more DPS as you move faster between targets. However, Harvester definitely has greater potential given her crit chance perk which could be insane with proper crit damage stacking. Dim Mak also makes her pretty much un-killable and with some thunderstrike shenanigans could be awesome.

–T.E.D.D Shot–

Last but not least, we have our Sniper outlander. In her case, we compare her abilities with the Urban Assault because technically, the Urban Assault gets her fire rate perk on Snipers as well

Ability TEDD Shot Urban Assault
Damage 0% 10%
Fire Rate 35% 50%
Magazine 35% 0%
Deb Shots 0% 45%

If we punch both their numbers into my calculator, you will see that on Sniper Rifles like the Super Shredder, the Urban Assault setup ends up doing 14.66% more DPS seen here. The actual DPS would be slightly closer since debilitating shots aren't instantly applied but you guys get the idea. So T.E.D.D Shot is already behind in damage so we turn to the next point of comparison being their abilities. We struggled to compare the differences between T.E.D.D.Y and Keep Out!!! grenades… Lol like we actually need to. In other words, Urban Assault is the superior sniper hero.

Summary

Heavy Base has be potential of toppling the current top tier Constructor being MEGA BASE while Bullet Storm is closely on par with Special Forces. Melee damage remains lacking even in the case of Harvester so it's unlikely that Dragon Scorch/Shuriken Master (our king and queen of Ninja abilities) will get overtaken. Lastly in the case of T.E.D.D Shot, she doesn't do any "Outlander things" (A.K.A farming) and doesn't bring enough damage to the table either. Good meme though.

Let me know what you guys think about the new heroes in the comments, whether you agree/ disagree with the paper analyses. It will definitely help me in understanding their capabilities and placing them within the tier lists.


Event Store

Before I close the post out, I will just briefly touch on the event store for this week.

Event Items

Priority Item Description
1 Survivor Don't have to explain, survivors are always good
2 Wall Darts Having Wall Darts can be amazing especially for SSD and certain funnels. If you already have a good one, then don't bother
3 Neon Sniper Rifle Neat gun with fixed perks which makes it decent. Also worth collecting
3 Reaper Scythe Only if you want to play the Scythe ninja, otherwise bump this down to 4
3 Centurion I don't like her, she's not top tier. More of a support class but no one plays support in Fortnite. Still good to have nonetheless
4 Ranger Not actually a great gun but could be amazing depending on the perks. If you don't care about collecting stuff and just want to try your luck at a good AR, you can push this up to 2
5 Sniper Defender Sniper defenders are actually one of the best defenders. Defenders are definitely "OK" in StS and especially if Horde Bash comes back. If you think you will use him, then bump him up to 3
6 Rare Schematic Lol no

Personally, my order based on my current progression into the game would be

Survivor > Neon Sniper Rifle > Sniper Defender > Centurion > Ranger > Reaper Scythe > Wall Darts

Weekly Items

Priority Item Description
1 Legendary Flux No arguments here, pick this up first
2 Armory Slot This is one of those things you don't really need but great to hoard
3 Rare Materials You know those drops of rain stuff. Pick all of them up if possible
4 Trailblaster Buzz "OK" to hold onto. Bump her up to 2 if you use Pistols with Ranger

Personally, my order would be

Legendary Flux > Armory Slot > Rare Materials > Trailblaster > I don't think I will have enough Gold for the rest

If you want some maths on how Spring It On Gold! farm looks like and how much the different players can farm depending on their hours played, you might want to check out my other post here. The TL;DR from that post is

TL;DR It would take 21 games a day to unlock everything in both stores and you can half this by actively completing the repeatable quest and increasing mission difficulty. If you are playing casually, you can still pick up the items that matter if you prioritize your purchases


Conclusion

Into the Storm is undoubtedly super rewarding given how an hour a day over the course of 2 months would be able to net you 60 legendary schematics/transforms on top of a variety of other rewards. Unfortunately since the event is "time capped", players who can't afford an hour of playtime in a single seating does not benefit from this at all. Despite so, the average player should easily achieve 22.8 hours of playtime over 2 months which almost guarantees them a hero they want from the llamas.

As for the heroes and strictly looking at paper numbers, Heavy BASE is amazing and potentially top tier while Bullet Storm is closely on par with Special Forces. Harvest Sarah is closely tied with Swordmaster Ken but her survivability could pull her ahead and T.E.D.D Shot just falls short (hah get it..?) in her primary role while not offering much on the side.

Once again, thanks for reading through my post. Feel free to let me know in the comments whether you agree, disagree or just share any thoughts you have regarding the event in general. You can also ask me for my thoughts on specific event related matters and I will try my best to answer (possibly when I wake up tomorrow since it's already 1AM as I am writing this paragraph).

TL;DR Ticket efficiency is capped at 6000 tickets over 6 hours/day although you can go higher. Farming StS for legendary schematics/transforms is super worth it. Most of the new heroes are great on paper except for TEDD Shot.


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