Fortnite

The Math behind 7.1

FortniteBattleRoyale1 - The Math behind 7.1

The content of the article

Hey guys, Whitesushi here with a math post covering this winter season! I know I haven't been posting much but it's largely due to exams spanning almost the entirety of November and also just the fact that there wasn't much to cover. That being said, in this post, we want to cover the following topics (and they are order as they are listed below so feel free to skip around)

  • Forstnite
  • New Weapons
  • Armour Calculations

Now before we dive in, a little plug for my Fortnite Spreadsheet which has received some amazing updates thanks to my editor u/mbit90. One of the coolest features added was a revamp of my old perk calculator that now includes

  • Auto perk selection for most weapons (not all of them are supported yet)
  • The ability to specify conditional uptime for deeper customization
  • More convenient weapon selection through drop-down menus rather than manual name entries

Forstnite

In order to properly evaluate this mode, we need to assess it's implications on two groups of players, those who wish to push as far as possible for that sense of pride and accomplishment as well as the others looking for a mode to farm. Of course, there are also the third group of players who are just looking to have some fun but that's a little hard to qualify so we will stick with the former two. To get things going, here are some interesting tidbits of knowledge regarding the mode

  • The initial PL of the mission is dependent on how far you have progressed in your stormshield defense. A lot of players may find themselves looking at PL88 Forstnite and that's because they are sitting on Twine SSD5 (which is just enough to unlock the entire Fortnite map normally)

  • Each wave takes 1 minute 45 seconds to complete while the waiting time between waves is 2 minutes. The timer also gets pushed back a little due to those voices cutting in which is pretty random with some being longer than others but overall it's approximately 15s per wave. Oh and the first wave starts only after 3 minutes.

  • There are a few signs pointing towards the fact the highest wave is 30. If you load into a Forstnite mission, hit I, go to objectives and press badges, you will see that the highest badge you can obtain is at "all waves complete" which is likely wave 30. It is also worth noting that the choice of words here being "all waves" rather than "wave 30" seem to suggest that 30 is indeed the last wave.

Next, I want to share this table which is relevant to both groups of player. It is taken assuming a base mission power level of 100 with some extrapolated values when it comes to ticket rewards and husk power levels. Don't worry too much though, the numbers aren't that far from what you will actually receive

Table (I was initially planning to include the table itself on reddit but theres a lot of rows so just pasting an image was more convenient)

Pushers

For those looking to push, you will quickly notice that this event might not be like Horde Bash where you can go infinitely. While this hasn't been confirmed, the power level tapering off close to what seems to be 220 (nice number) as well as what I mentioned above regarding badges seem to suggest that. Unfortunately, I use the term "seems" because I'm not aware of anyone who has been able to complete wave 30 with the furthest being JoxterTheMighty at 28.

However, that doesn't mean the process isn't challenging. Horde Bash challenge 50 was a pretty big hurdle for anyone who wasn't using mass decoys and that featured husks which weren't even PL 200 so wave 30 here is essentially challenge 50 HB slapped on with a few more husk levels, no decoys and greater need for smart resource management.

Although HB50 does have like some modifiers which was pretty challenging depending on the combination

Farmers

Alright for the rest of you, farming gold through this is terrible since you get like almost 1 mission's worth of gold regardless of how far you go (and I know you guys rather farm Storm King anyway for that). That said though, what about the tickets? If you again refer to the table, you will see that I have listed out the ticket rewards at each wave. Do note that the numbers aren't perfect but any inaccuracies seem to fall within a +-15 tickets range. My guesses behind this fluctuations is that either

  1. The rewards aren't solely based off waves completed but rather increased a little depending on how close you are into completing the next wave

  2. The rewards has something to do with chest rarity (I accounted for this but it seems to be a little weird at times)

Read:  Realistic comparison between the level 20 & 25 perks

If you know exactly how it works, please do let me know in the comments below. Back to our ticket table, you will see a ticket/minutes on the right side. Apparently the further you went, the more tickets/minute but it's, for the most part, somewhere between 9 to 10 tickets per minute. Doing a regular PL100 mission yields the player 120 tickets in approximately 10 minutes making that 12 tickets per minute. In fact, any player completing a regular mission under 12 minutes would be more efficient doing that than Forstnite. Of course, that's not to mention the fact that it is obviously a lot easier doing a PL100 mission than a scaling Forstnite one that goes all the way up to 220.


New Weapons

This event has introduced a total of 3 new weapons through the winter llamas namely

  • Hemlock (Assault Rifle)
  • Basilisk (Pistol)
  • Stalwart Squire (Shotgun)

Since we are covering multiple weapons here, I wouldn't go into as much depth as I usually do and would simply just offer some perk recommendations as well as my personal opinions on whether or not the weapons are worth using.

Hemlock

Perks Available

1 2 3 4 5 6
Damage Magazine Size Physical Magazine Size Damage Shield Stack
Critical Rating Reload Speed Energy Critical Rating Damage to Mist/Boss
Critical Damage Weapon Stability Fire Weapon Stability Critical Damage
Fire Rate Durability Nature Headshot Damage Headshot Damage
Reload Speed Water

Here's what the results look based off my calculator assuming 60% headshots and no hero equipped. Honestly, there isn't really much debate for this weapon and you should just go critical setup especially considering that it not only has a nice 15/75 CR/CD ratio, it's headshot multiplier is ridiculously low at 1.25 times. As such, recommended perks will be

  • Critical Damage (don't get CR on this slot because the 4th slot doesn't let you roll critical damage so you rather get it there)
  • Magazine/Reload
  • Energy/Element
  • Critical Rating
  • Critical Damage
  • Master Grenadier / Wukong in support

Personally, I wouldn't use this since it loses out to most of the other ARs even without factoring in a damage perk in 6th slot but if you don't have the Silenced Specter, Wraith, Bundlebuss and Bobcat, then this might be worth looking into

Basilisk

Perks Available

1 2 3 4 5 6
Damage Magazine Size Physical Magazine Size Damage Shield Stack
Critical Rating Reload Speed Energy Critical Rating Damage to Mist/Boss
Critical Damage Weapon Stability Fire Weapon Stability Critical Damage
Fire Rate Durability Nature Headshot Damage Headshot Damage
Reload Speed Water

Again, here's the table from my calculator assuming 60% headshots once again and no heroes. The rank 1 result doesn't change at all even with ranger equipped. As you can see, the crit setup is ideal once again similar to reasons given above. The recommended perks in this case are

  • Critical Damage (don't get CR on this slot because the 4th slot doesn't let you roll critical damage so you rather get it there)
  • Magazine/Reload
  • Energy/Element
  • Critical Rating
  • Critical Damage
  • Ranger in support

Whisper .45 does ~12% more damage than this weapon assuming a similar critical damage setup and conditional damage so if you have that weapon, there's almost no reason to use this. However if you don't, this weapon is alright for a more DPS oriented pistol

Stalwart Squire

Perks Available

1 2 3 4 5 6
Damage Critical Damage Physical Critical Damage Damage Shield Stack
Critical Rating Reload Speed Energy Reload Speed Damage to Mist/Boss
Durability Damage Fire Damage Critical Damage
Reload Speed Impact Nature Impact Critical Rating
Water

Last but not least, we have our shotgun. Without much surprises, this is another critical build and we are looking at my calculator showing this. What's interesting is that it recommends conditional damage in the 5th slot but if you look closely, you quickly realize that the conditional's actual uptime would be really low due to it being limited to mist/boss. As such, the rank 2 setup should be what you would use being

  • Critical Rating
  • Critical Damage
  • Energy/Element
  • Critical Damage
  • Critical Damage
  • Raider in support

I can't really think of a weapon that's truly similar so this weapon is fairly unique. That's not to mention it has some of the highest critical damage numbers for a shotgun which makes it fairly worth using. If you really want to DPS things however, just note that the Tigerjaw does 2x+ this weapon's DPS (thus killing large targets 2 times faster assuming they don't die in 1 shot)


Armour

In the patch notes, Epic Games mentioned making adjustments to damage resistance (basically changing it to armour) and introducing some form of diminishing returns to prevent players from stacking too much of it. Well, what does all this mean from a numbers perspective? In order to understand this, we must first establish that

  • A player has 0 armour to begin with
Read:  The solution to AFKers and Leachers that we have all been looking for.

This means that unless you have any of those special perks equipped, the initial armour value is 0. Everytime you add armour to your player be it through a hero perk such as flak jacket or a support bonus such as that of survivalist's "armoured", this number increases by a flat value indicated by the perk (Note that diminishing returns doesn't kick it at this point). The game then converts this flat armour value into a % damage resistance similar to how critical rating gets converted to critical chance except the formula is different being

Damage Resistance = Armour/(Armour+100) 

According to my tests, there are some slight inaccuracies that my brain can't figure out at the moment since it's 5AM but it's very likely just rounding issues with how husk damage is handled in the first place. This change basically means 2 things

  • Having a single armour perk is pretty amazing
  • Intentionally stacking it is pretty terrible

Table (Gain simply refers to how much DR% the additional armour from either melee weapon/support bonus is giving you with reference to the left most item in the equation alone)

As you can see, there are some deeper implications to these changes being

  • Indirect buff to Constructors since now their B.A.S.E single-handedly reduces damage 26% or up to 33.33% with Safety Protocol (pretty amazing)
  • "Armored" as a support perk could be potentially decent as it now gives 20% damage reduction, potentially pushing players' effective HP enough to survive an additional hit
  • Shadow Stance (and thus most ninjas) gets a decent buff as well although I'm not sure if it's actually going to be enough to save those poor guys

Honestly, while we aren't gonna see anymore 84% damage resistance, you can still stack to around 70% with the same setup which honestly isn't terrible considering how the perk is immensely useful literally everywhere else. I feel that the changes were largely made in preparation for the new hero loadout system in order to avoid players potentially hitting 100% damage reduction (just like how people used to be able to get 100% durability reduction on launchers)


Conclusion

Firstly with regards to Forstnite, it's not exactly worth farming given the effort and reward-time ratio. I suppose if you are maxed out on your 10 alerts and want more tickets, you could obtain more doing the mode.

Secondly, amongst the 3 weapons, the shotgun is pretty solid and truly worth using just for its huge crit numbers. As for the other two, not really worth checking out unless you are missing the other event weapons I've listed above.

Lastly, the change to damage resistance would favour most players greatly, especially so if you play Constructors. The only players negatively affected would be those intentionally stacking more armour than they needed.

Once again, thanks for reading through my lengthy post and hopefully it has provided some additional insights into the changes introduced to the game in the latest patch. There were a few other things I wanted to cover initially such as Frostbite map and its potentially fixed spawn locations which can be easily mapped and farmed but that wouldn't be very time efficient. Perhaps someone already has it mapped out. Either way, if you wish to support me and what I do (write guides for Fortnite on Reddit basically), you can use my creator tag Whitesushi. Also, kudos if you can figure out why I mis-spelt Forstnite.

TL;DR Forstnite is not worth farming unless you are maxing out alerts on tickets already, new weapons are pretty solid but not too amazing and the armour changes are actually good unless you are intentionally stacking way too much

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