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The Math behind Fortnitemares

1516285594 8572 1024x576 - The Math behind Fortnitemares
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Hey guys, Whitesushi here. Yesterday, I did a post on some tips to get you guys through this event so feel free to check it out here if you haven't already. Today, I want to discuss the more theoretical side of things now that this new event has introduced a bunch of new stuff. Breaking them into categories as usual, we will be looking at stuff such as

  • Candy math
  • New ranged perks
  • New hero (Mythic Calamity)

Last but not least as a bonus since the 4x survivors category 4 atlas is on at the moment, I will touch a little on

  • Survivor XP farm

Before we jump in, just a quick plug for my Fortnite Spreadsheet which I will be using for majority of the math done within this post. I will be referencing the tabs I use throughout so you can play around with those and maybe calculate something that is of interest.


Candy Math

Math may be boring but candy math is delicious. I want to give you guys a rough idea of how many llamas you can farm and to start off, we will be looking at all the various sources of candy from this event

  1. Missions Alerts. These are the 10 per day alerts that you normally use for v-Bucks. If you are farming at PL100, you get 120 candy per mission meaning potentially 1200 per day

  2. Hexsylvania Alerts. These are the 10 per day event alerts that are only used on the Hexsylvania map. It is uniform at all power levels and only give 50 candies so high level players could technically join lower level friends for really easy mission. This adds up to potentially 500 per day

Beyond the per-day candies, there are 2 other sources being

  1. Main event quest line. I have yet to complete the entire event but from what I have seen so far, it is the same as last year except that they changed v-Buck rewards to gold (FeelsBadMan). Adding the numbers up quickly, we get a total of 2750 candies. (Note that this number may not be accurate but it should not be too far off)

  2. Side event quest line. Again, we just add the numbers up quickly to get 2000 candies.

Of course, buying regular llamas also give you candies but I can't simply predict how many llamas everyone is going to buy so we will just assume 0.

Alright so assuming you spend all your alerts on candies and finish the entirety of Fortnitemares. This will translate to about 35 days worth of alerts being used on candies. In total, that yields you 64250 candies which is about 128.5 llamas. Since there are a total of 30 items possible from the llama with 3 of them being legendary survivors, the chances of you getting a legendary survivor from any single llama would be 10%. Across that many llamas, you can expect 13 legendary survivors. Of course, not everyone is going to spend all their alerts on candies and not every is going to farm that many games per day. As such, I will have a table to give you guys an idea of what other scenarios entail

Scenario Candies Llamas Est. Survivors
10 Hex Alerts 22250 44.5 4.5
5 Hex Alerts 13500 27 2.7
2 Hex Alerts 8250 16.5 1.7

We automatically assume that the player is going to complete the quest-line because even at 1 mission per day with each quest taking approximately 2.5 missions, you will be able to knock out 14 missions over 35 days which is only 2 missions shy of the entire quest-line. Of course, we don't really know how many there are in the other sets since they might have changed those.

So as you can see, you need to play quite a lot to get the legendary survivors. What's more interesting is how unlikely you are going to end up with the Jack-O-Launcher since someone casually playing only 5 Hex Alerts a day will only end up with approximately 2.7 survivors which isn't even hitting the bare minimum of 3, let alone getting 3 unique ones. If you already got it, then you are pretty lucky. Honestly, I think the math reflects in-game experiences as well because even though it seems like the game gives you a lot of candies, when you actually sit down and grind for it, you don't end up with much unless you are spending your regular mission alerts on it (basically not progressing your hexsylvania quest line).


New Ranged Perks

I'm sure this is what you guys are mostly interested in and so was I. Before we jump in, here are the 3 new ranged perks that have been added into the game. (There are some melee ones as well but I haven't tested them so I can't give a definitely answer. Either way, I don't plan to which is why I'm not waiting on it before making this post)

  1. Each shot fired grants +1.8% Damage for 1 second. Stacks up to 15 times.
  2. Each shot fired grants +1.8% Critical Rating for 1 second. Stacks up to 15 times.
  3. Each shot fired grants +2.6% Fire Rate for 1 second. Stacks up to 15 times.

After some extensive testing, here's what I found out

  • The 1s duration only starts once you stop firing. This means that even for weapons that don't hit 15 fire rate, as long as you don't stop firing for more than 1s, you can eventually stack to full 15 times. In other words, if your weapon has < 1 fire rate, you are out of luck.

  • You don't need to hit a target to get it to stack. You can shoot 15 bullets into the air and your subsequent shots will benefit from the full buff.

  • For the stacks, unlike regular hero buffs such as UAH's fire rate, the numbers don't reflect on your user interface when you look at the weapon. (Trust me, it's not that I have slow fingers and can't open the UI fast enough :l)

  • Most importantly, Motomat from the Fortnite Reddit discord has kindly informed me that you can't get the new perks on older weapons from his experience of opening llamas after the patch while ArcLight shows that the sniper/shotgun both have standard perks meaning Swan is the only special weapon to have those 3 new perks.

So obviously when it comes to these perks, the more fire rate you got, the faster you get the stacks and thus the better your damage ramp up. But between these perks, which one actually has the highest damage potential? Well actually this varies quite a lot across weapons since you know, different weapons have different base stat values but let's just take the Swan for example. Here, I have a table set up for it. If you haven't picked some info out already, we are assuming

  • No hero in main
  • Element (20% damage)
  • 50% headshot accuracy
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This is what the results show for DPS and DMG/Shot respectively. As you notice, both setups are telling us to run the triple crit setup in main being CR/CD/CD and in the fifth slot either fire rate for DPS or damage for DMG/Shot. If we recall earlier, the fire rate setup is better since faster shots = faster stacks. Of course, the results change if we were to increase the headshot accuracy to 62%/66% for dps&dmg/shot respectively (breakpoint) and the tables change to look like this

Again, we see the same trend above where fire rate/damage in 5th slot is basically a choice between DPS or DMG/Shot. As for the standard perks, we are looking at DMG/HS/HS being triumphant. Honestly though, I don't feel that the weapon is accurate enough to go headshot so I would personally run crit (heard you can cap FPS at 30 and get decent results on it). Then again, I don't see a reason to run this weapon at all when others like the Wraith exists so my advice is to "play it for the sake of playing, not for the sake of doing the most damage". Anyway, we won't go further since I'm not here to evaluate the weapon, but rather to let you guys know about the perks.

Don't mess with the 5th column yourselves for the perk table, it doesn't work. This is on a private sheet that I have made adjustments for to accommodate those changes and not finalized. I will eventually update the main sheet once I figure out a way to bypass google's "Text result of REPT is longer than the limit of 32000 characters". That said though, if anyone has a solution for it, hit me up


Mythic Calamity

She looks awesome /end of story. Ok but seriously, how good is she? To find out, we need to compare her with some of the other heroes in the game, one of them being Ranger because we want to examine the effects of her perks on pistols. If we tabulate their pistol perks against each other, we get something that looks like this

Calamity Ranger
Advanced Tactics 10% DMG Eagle Eye 18 Crit Rating
Debilitating Shots 3 stacks of 5% DMG Make it Count 70% Crit Damage
Lingering Pain 5 stacks of 5% DMG Hipshot 24% DMG
Six Shooter 12% DMG
Six Shooter Ace 12% DMG
In a Pinch 35% Reload

We exclude utility skills since people value those differently and skills without 100% uptime (i.e War Cry). The weapon of choice for our comparison shall be the Duelist for a simple fact that it has exactly 6 shots and a really powerful pistol in general. Now that's out of the way, here's how I plan to do it

  1. Find the DMG/Shot and DPS for the Ranger
  2. Find the DMG/Shot and DPS for Calamity at each instance of debilitating shots
  3. Find the average DMG/Shot and DPS for Calamity overall

Here's a table for what it looks like assuming best perk setups and 70% headshot accuracy (reasonable since this is a pistol you aim the head with). The numbers themselves are linked to show the best perk setups so you can click those for the table

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Instance Damage/Second Damage/Shot
Ranger 1111.2 1738.2
Calamity 1st shot (0 debs) 1099.9 1630.9
Calamity 2nd shot (1 deb) 1154.9 1712.4
Calamity 3rd shot (2 debs) 1209.8 1794.0
Calamity 4th shot (3 debs) 1264.8 1875.5
Calamity 5th shot (4 debs) 1319.8 1957.0
Calamity 6th shot (5 debs) 1374.8 2038.6

On average over the course of an entire clip, Ranger basically does 1111.2 DPS and 1738.2 DMG/Shot while the Calamity does 1237.3 DPS and 1834.7 DMG/Shot. In both instances, damage of the Calamity overtakes Ranger by the 3rd shot (although for DPS it's at the 2nd). However, do note that this changes a lot based on your headshot accuracy and the following table reflects the changes at 50% headshot accuracy.

Instance Damage/Second Damage/Shot
Ranger 1039.6 1626.3
Calamity 1st shot (0 debs) 936.7 1388.9
Calamity 2nd shot (1 deb) 983.5 1458.3
Calamity 3rd shot (2 debs) 1030.3 1527.8
Calamity 4th shot (3 debs) 1077.2 1597.2
Calamity 5th shot (4 debs) 1124.0 1666.7
Calamity 6th shot (5 debs) 1170.8 1736.1

In this case, Ranger basically does 1039.6 DPS and 1626.2 DMG/Shot while the Calamity does 1053.8 DPS and 1562.5 DMG/Shot. In this second scenario, we also see that Calamity doesn't overtake Ranger in DPS until the 4th shot and in DMG/Shot until the 5th shot.

The result why they scale so differently is because at higher headshot accuracy, headshot triumphs while critical setups begin to shine as you go lower. On the Ranger, he has 2 critical perks that stack up nicely with the critical setups which is why he is technically stronger around that region

Ultimate I think there are 2 main points to take into consideration when deciding between raw damage in going for either weapon.

  1. Headshot builds are generally better with Calamity while critical builds with Ranger
  2. When using a weapon with super high damage, you usually don't go into the 3rd shot onwards. As such, Calamity potentially loses out in damage to the Ranger

I think Calamity does have a spot in the meta when it comes to dealing damage, especially when your weapon of choice is the Duelist and you are going for a more DPS oriented, headshot approach. This is further encouraged by the fact that she has War Cry which lets her deal with bosses more comfortably. That said though, that is a pretty niche set of rules she has to stick to in order to perform her best. Furthermore, DPS calculations are a little skewed due to her reload perk only triggering on empty magazine. I personally won't take her over the Ranger (Ranger has really good utility perks) but ultimately the ball is in your court.

Other uses

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Of course, Calamity isn't just about boosting damage output. She has a +48% impact bonus as well and can make the Zapp Zapp feel like a Jack-O-Launcher. Furthermore, she has some Lefty & Righty perks similar to those on Nevermore.


Survivor XP Farms

To end off the post and cool our brains down a little, I will share a little bit of calculations done on survivor squads. So obviously, we want the best possible survivor loadout in the long run. This means a combination of

  • 8 Mythic Leads, 1 in each squad
  • 54 Legendary survivors, 7 in 7 squads and 5 in 1 squad
  • 2 Mythic survivors, 2 in 1 squad

Using the experience/upgrade calculator located in the "Calc" tab of my spreadsheet, we can easily determine the amount of resources to get each of these guys from level 1 to level 50 being

  • Mythic Lead 527000 XP, 230 Rain, 42 Manuals, 72 Lightnings, 36 Storms, 12 Shards
  • Mythic Survivor 533500 XP, 120 Rain, 54 Manuals, 60 Lightnings, 50 Storms, 10 Shards
  • Legendary Survivor 400000 XP, 100 Rain, 42 Manuals, 48 Lightnings, 24 Storms, 8 Shards

We are only looking at experience here so we will ignore the resources but if you want to find out, you can do some easy math which doesn't really take very long. Anyway, all we got to do is to add all the experience up to get a final value of 26,883,000 experience. Now that we have this number, the next thing we need to know is how much experience we farm from the best possible mission in the game, PL100 Category 4 Atlas – 4 Players. I went ahead and did one and

  • Here's what I got image
  • Of course, the mission can crit as well as seen here

To understand a little about crit-ing, each "slot" has an individual chance to crit. When it crits, it gives double the normal experience so if you are really lucky, technically a mission that gives 100,000 experience can potentially give 200,000. Of course, that's quite unlikely and I doubt anyone has worked out the chances of getting these crits.

Either way, we shall low-ball this and assume no crits, just using my first screenshot of 127,500 experience per mission. Simply dividing our experience needed over the experience per mission, we easily figure out that we need to play ~211 missions to get every survivor from 1 to 50. Finally, we assume a set amount of time you take per mission. From experience

  • Top players with dedicated groups like Allura take <10 minutes per run. For simplicity, we assume 10 minutes.
  • Bunch of high level players playing with minimal funnels would take 15 minutes.
  • Slightly under leveled players relying on smart funnels to finish mission might take 20 minutes.

For the respective groups, this will translate to

Time per mission Total time taken (hrs) Missions per 6 hour cycles Cycles needed
10 35.2 36 5.86
15 52.8 24 8.79
20 70.3 18 11.7

As you can see, it really isn't hard to cap out survivors and anyone can knock it out pretty much under 2 months playing even as little as 2 hours a day or less (remember we excluded crit-ing altogether). You just got to pay attention to the god of all missions when they pop up.

On a side note, I suppose people might run out of other stuff like training manuals and materials. The best way to get manuals is to transform your other resources into survivors and then recycling your survivors


Conclusion

To quickly sum up what we discussed above…

  1. Players can earn Candies ranging from over 22,250 to only 8,250 over the entire event depending on how much time they are willing to commit per day. Ultimately, that translates to only a handful of llamas which makes getting survivors for the Jack-O-Launcher pretty hard

  2. The new perks only roll on the Swan and it's mostly down to the 5th slot where you want fire rate for DPS or damage for DMG/Shot. The weapon doesn't have enough base critical stats to make a diminishing, stacking critical rating perk work. Generally, the Swan is fairly underwhelming though.

  3. Calamity outdoes the Ranger when you play by a set of rules being headshot instead of critical build, using a weapon with specifically 6 bullets and taking on average >3 shots to kill a target. Otherwise, the Ranger is generally better.

  4. The player needs a total of 26,883,000 survivor experience to max out their squads from 1 to 50 and the fastest way to meet that goal is by farming PL100 Category 4 Atlas – 4 Players which would take you a total of 211 missions to get it done.

Personally, the event llama rates, new hero and new weapons all feel pretty underwhelming based on initial analysis and I'm probably not taking a second look at them unless something of interest pops up. I shall simply stick to using my dream loadout of Silenced Specter & Wraith on UAH for most things considered. As always, let me know in the replies if I missed something out and thanks for reading my lengthy posts.

TL;DR You won't get much event llamas casually grinding only Hex zones, the new perks are alright but stuck on an underwhelming weapon, new hero can potentially be good but you have to play by a specific set of rules and survivor experience farming to max out your loadout only takes 211 missions of Cat4 4X Atlas

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