HearthStone

A simulated look at the new value of pre-order bundles.

hearthstone 6 - A simulated look at the new value of pre-order bundles.
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So I made a post yesterday about using computer simulation and pack openings. I found a small bug in the code where it didn't properly do the second copy duplicates so i'm redoing it with more accurate information. I also added some extra features so it takes into account more factors.

Just a brief list of what the script does. It uses the latest available drop rates here which intrinsically take into account the 1 rare or above minimum per pack as well as the pity timer. If a simulation has not opened a legendary on pack 10, it will add a single legend to the next pack. If a pack contains a duplicate, it will change it to a random card of the same rarity not yet owned, this will scan golden's as well so 1 golden and 1 non-golden counts as a full set. All simulations for set number of packs will run for 10,000 simulations. They are also set to use the new expansion's distribution of cards.

Using my numbers from last time I did this, you get roughly 70 free packs per expansion and either 55, 90 or 145 from pre-orders. So i'm looking at those numbers specifically, and 30 for early collection guessing. These do not include the free bundle legends or the free set legend. For a full collection, the script runs 5,000 times until the amount of duplicates (golds first when possible) exceeds the remaining amount of cards to craft.

So without further delay, the data:

For a collection made from 30 packs opened

  • Average Common completion: 103.0 / 104
  • Average Rare completion: 34.1 / 70
  • Average Epic completion: 6.7 / 46
  • Average Legendary completion: 2.2 / 25
  • Average Dust in bank: 21.5

For a collection made from 55 packs opened (Pre-purchase)

  • Average Common completion: 104.0 / 104
  • Average Rare completion: 62.0 / 70
  • Average Epic completion: 12.2 / 46
  • Average Legendary completion: 3.6 / 25
  • Average Dust in bank: 478.9

For a collection made from 70 packs opened (F2P gold)

  • Average Common completion: 104.0 / 104
  • Average Rare completion: 69.6 / 70
  • Average Epic completion: 15.5 / 46
  • Average Legendary completion: 4.5 / 25
  • Average Dust in bank: 949.1

For a collection made from 90 packs opened (Mega bundle)

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  • Average Common completion: 104.0 / 104
  • Average Rare completion: 70.0 / 70
  • Average Epic completion: 19.9 / 46
  • Average Legendary completion: 6.6 / 25
  • Average Dust in bank: 1764.5

For a collection made from 125 packs opened (Pre-purchase + F2P gold)

  • Average Common completion: 104.0 / 104
  • Average Rare completion: 70.0 / 70
  • Average Epic completion: 27.7 / 46
  • Average Legendary completion: 7.5 / 25
  • Average Dust in bank: 3204.2

For a collection made from 145 packs opened (Both bundles)

  • Average Common completion: 104.0 / 104
  • Average Rare completion: 70.0 / 70
  • Average Epic completion: 32.2 / 46
  • Average Legendary completion: 8.5 / 25
  • Average Dust in bank: 4027.4

For a collection made from 160 packs opened (Mega Bundle + F2P gold)

  • Average Common completion: 104.0 / 104
  • Average Rare completion: 70.0 / 70
  • Average Epic completion: 35.4 / 46
  • Average Legendary completion: 9.3 / 25
  • Average Dust in bank: 4654.2

For a collection made from 215 packs opened (Both bundles + F2P gold)

  • Average Common completion: 104.0 / 104
  • Average Rare completion: 70.0 / 70
  • Average Epic completion: 44.1 / 46
  • Average Legendary completion: 12.3 / 25
  • Average Dust in bank: 7298.6

And lastly, for those whale looking for a full collection, the total number of packs with the new change is as following. This time around I went a little more realistic and assumed someone getting this would use both bundles and as such have 3 free legendaries.

  • Average Packs required: 273.1
  • Average Dust per pack: 39.3

For comparison with the old totals per rarity and no- dupes it required

  • Average Packs required: 264.8
  • Average Dust per pack: 50.9

The reason for the new system being higher is that the increased number of legends adds an extra 8-10 packs each which strongly counters the duplicates since at packs exceeding 250 or so, epics are maxed out anyway and only worth a quarter of a legendary.

Script is here if anyone wants to double check or improve it.

Source: Original link


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