Analysis of diminishing returns in pack-openings.

hearthstone 5 - Analysis of diminishing returns in pack-openings.

Made a post covering the value of a pre-order couple days ago but a few people wanted follow ups that were a bit too lengthy to reply to individually. So i thought i'd address them here.

The exact number for how much dust a pack contains varies from source to source, but it tends to be around 100-110 dust. In practice this just never happens, i can't remember opening a single pack and being 100 dust the richer that wasn't a golden epic or legend (In total I've acquired 2).

So using computer scripts i generated a couple million packs and looked at distributions, primarily focusing on duplicates and the impact they had. I generated a collection for every multiple of 10 until i got bored (got up to 140) and compared them in blocks of 10 to the previous amount in order to see exactly how much things changed. Distribution is massive on an individual basis, so take this with a grain of salt as its only an average.

Note for the table is that it is the absolute total for cards not the percents. For reference, there are 98 commons (49 with 2 copies), 72 rares, 54 epics and 23 legends. Golden's are disenchanted since the value allows you to craft it anyway, so it functions better as dust.

PacksCommonRareEpicLegendDustPack DustPack ValueTotal %

Some notes on the columns, I wanted to look specifically at diminishing returns, so the pack dust column has a consistent -25 applied to it, this is to factor out golden cards since they get dusted regardless of dupes. The Pack dust represents how much dust comes from duplicates specifically.


Pack Value looks at the increase in commons, rares, epics and legends and is the value of those cards at crafting value. A legend opened is 1600 dust saved from crafting in the context of building a collection. A fresh new pack contains no dupes so its value is 5 new cards, while a pack from a full set is pure dust, worth considerably less.

Using the latest pack statistics the average pack provides 108.9 pure dust assuming you always disenchant. 24.975 of this comes from golden cards, which have more or less no diminishing returns, legends never get disenchanted and epics at a nearly never although tiny frequency. The leftover dust responsible to commons and rares, adds up to 38.5 dust per pack. This is a decent breaking point in comparison and if we look at the table occurs around the 100 pack threshold. This is roughly the point where every common and rare is a duplicate, and a few of the epics are dupes as-well since the dust acquired is more then just rares and commons can account for. After this point, just regular dust tends to be better and comparing the value threshold, is less then half the packs at 20 were providing.

Naturally you should always open packs for the least complete set unless you want specific commons/rares so this post is more or less moot. But thought i'd show it since it was asked.

Edit: Missed a row

Source: Original link

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