Ashes of Outland: Pre-order Analysis ($0.79 per pack*) and How many packs you need to get all Epics/Rares/Full Set

hearthstone 4 - Ashes of Outland: Pre-order Analysis ($0.79 per pack*) and How many packs you need to get all Epics/Rares/Full Set

The Pre-order gives:


55 packs = 100% common completion, 93% rare completion, 24% epic completion, 19% legendary completion (4.6/24), 850 dust (.5 more legendaries)

($0.91 per pack not counting other bonuses ; )

($.795 per pack, counting the golden legendary as 8 packs)

Mega (counting the pack reward from arena, but not other rewards):

94 packs = 100% common completion, 100% rare completion, 41% epic completion, 28% legendary completion (6.6/24), 2614 dust (1.6 more legendaries)

($0.85 per pack, not counting other bonuses , BG pass, >)

($.785 per pack counting golden legendary as 8 packs, but not counting other bonuses)


Here is a breakdown of how many packs you need to open in order to get all the cards of a given rarity

Without Ranked Rewards:

For common completion: 30 packs.

For Rare Completion: 60 packs.

For Epic Completion: 235 Packs.

For Legendary Completion (DE duplicates and goldens): 291 Packs

If I just want all cards by the end of the expansion (4 months after launch) and get Diamond rank 5 each season?

For common completion: 8 packs (+20 from ranked rewards + 2 from free arena tickets).

For Rare Completion: 14 packs (+20 from ranked rewards + 2 from free arena tickets).

For Epic Completion: 188 Packs (+20 from ranked rewards + 2 from free arena tickets).

For Legendary Completion (DE duplicates and goldens): 263 Packs (+20 from ranked rewards + 2 from free arena tickets).


How much dust is a pack worth?

92 to 216 dust on average.

If you plan to complete commons and rares, but not epics and legendaries, a pack is worth about 216 dust (DE values of commons, rares and their golden counterparts along with 400 for epics and 1600 for legendaries). a fifth of the time you get an epic, which is worth 400 dust. 1/18 of the time you get a legendary which is worth 1600 dust . The dust equivalent is better, because it can be any card.

If you complete all the epics, commons and rares, then a pack is worth 156 dust on average.

If there was only 1 card you wanted and you were willing to dust everything else, a pack would be worth at least 92 dust (if you want 1 specific legendary and you are missing n legendaries, you should add (1600/18 )(1/n) to the dust value or about 9 dust more if you're missing 10 legendaries).



Now we can answer: how much is a golden legendary worth in terms of packs? To me? Since I value packs at a bit less than 215.72 dust and I value a golden legendary at its DE value/the enchant value of a regular legendary, 1600 dust, This means I think a random golden legendary is worth at least 1600/215.72=7.41 packs; let's say 8 packs.


Also, If we use the values given here, we can see gold to dust to dollar ratios. 100 gold = 1 pack = 215.72 dust = $1.17 (60 pack bundle) or $0.785 ( Mega Pre-order) or seomwhere in between, say $1. This dust value assume that commons and rares are opened, whereas epics and legendaries are crafted. (Adventure content must be valued differently, because it cannot be opened in the usual fashion, thus adventure commons and rares have a higher value.)

A common card is worth 5 dust = 1.9 cents. a rare card is worth 20 dust = 7.7 cents. An epic is worth 400 dust = $1.54 and a legendary is worth 1600 dust = $6.15.

So if you open up 90 packs for $90, you'll get about 5 legendaries ($30.78 value), 54 epics ( $41.55 value), 324 rares ($12.47 value) and 512 commons ($4.92 value). You can rescale all of these numbers, for example normally it would cost more than $90 to open that many packs, but it costs $80 right now with the bundle.

What is the cost of an expansion? If you get diamond 5 each season and use your 2 arena tickets and go about 3-3 each time, you need 262 more packs to complete your collection. You get 60 gold per day over the course of 4 months for 72 packs, reducing the cost of completion of set to 190 packs. If you buy both Pre-orders, you get 151 packs and reduce the number of packs needed to complete the set by about 20 more (since you get the 2 legendaries), so you only need 39 more packs. The cheapest way to get these is 40 packs for $50.

So if you want 2 copies of every card from an expansion and DE every golden (other than legendaries), it will cost $180. This assumes you complete all your 60 gold quests and buy both pre-orders and that you complete all of your 60g quests. (it does not count 10 gold earned for 3 wins or any extra stuff blizz gives away).

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