HearthStone2

Bobs Buddy- A Battlegrounds Calculator

hearthstone 1 - Bobs Buddy- A Battlegrounds Calculator

35iyma5s3cg41 - Bobs Buddy- A Battlegrounds Calculator

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Hi All,

For the past few months I’ve been working on an app for battlegrounds. The app automatically tells you how likely you are to win, lose, or tie each fight of battlegrounds based on the initial board state and any hero powers players use. The hope is that this enables better play over time as people realize whether or not they were legitimately stronger and got scammed, or are just playing a weak strategy relative to the rest of the lobby. It’s still in early alpha cuz it’s hella buggy and I’m making changes all the time, so it isn’t public yet. For now I’d love some feedback and to answer any questions y’all might have! If possible I’d like to keep this thread focused on the app/ the design process, but I’d be happy to do a more AMA style thread later.

Video of me using/ talking about the app:

The app on Purple’s stream from Sunday (we were talking around 1 hour 15 minutes): https://www.twitch.tv/videos/549538327

A much older version on Firebat’s stream from Saturday: https://www.twitch.tv/videos/548929839

Frequently asked questions that I’ll get out of the way now-

Q: How does it work?

A: Broad strokes, it gets the board state from a log generated by the hearthstone client, then runs thousands of simulations of that board to determine the stats mentioned above.

Q: How accurate is it?

A: Pretty? It’s hard to judge the accuracy of something like this because the only way to check it is reviewing the fights it produces and seeing if it misses/misunderstands something. Some known issues right now surround ordering of death rattles with other effects like soul juggler. Beyond that, the simulation is pretty holistic.

Q: What about infinite loops (eg ghastcoiler -> sneeds -> ghastcoiler)

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A: The devs made loops impossible in bg. Ghastcoiler can’t summon itself and sneeds can’t summon coiler bc coiler isn’t legendary.

Q: Will this help me improve, or is it just to help me get salty?

A: Yes to the first thing (and a lil’ bit to the second)!. I truly believe that being aware of how strong/weak you actually are helps you be a better battleground player, and improves the game as a whole.

Q: What are you thinking of adding in the future / have you thought of …

A: I have a few things I want to do that I’ll list here. 1) Being able to save fights to look at them after the run’s over. 2) Luckiness over the course of the run and over your time playing bg. 3) Being able to create your own custom boards to see stats on.

I’m also hoping to add a feature where you can see whether or not there existed a better ordering of your board for each fight you have. Similarly, a way to easily check counter-factuals (like what if I didn’t taunt the cobald guardian?) My worry is that this might violate Blizzard’s unfair advantage rules. You can imagine a 1v1 late game being very influenced such a feature if one player had the app and one didn’t. The solution there might be to delay information like that until the run’s over so it can’t influence a fight in the moment.

I have some more ideas floating around in my head, but if y’all have stuff you’d like to see absolutely let me know!

Finally, major thanks to Firebat and Purple for giving me feedback and showcasing the thing on stream. This also would not have been possible without the help of my friends Ben and Jake who spent a ton of time testing the product. Ben also made the design that took it from the ms paint looking nonsense to a more sleek, professional design. Their reddit usernames are u/jakeox13 and
u/hot_cross_bunzee, so if you see them in the comments talking about stuff they’re legit.

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Thanks so much for reading!

Jonathan Segal

Source: Original link


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2 Comments

  • Reply
    Goreflox
    Feb 22, 2020 1:05 pm

    Where do I download it?

  • Reply
    Bryan
    May 01, 2020 6:24 pm

    To test the accuracy, you can record the predicted probabilities for each match over a (very) large number of matches and then see how often your predictions are right. Your matches with a 60% predicted win chance should win about 60% of the time, etc.

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