It's my honor, at long last, to announce the results of the Official r/Hearthstone Rise of Shadows Prediction Contest!
Back before Rise of Shadows was released, in early April, over 1800 lackeys-in-training submitted their predictions. For every class, as well as every neutral rarity, E.V.I.L. aspirants strove to predict which cards would be most popular, and which card would be least popular.
The contest was so tight, we had to resort to tiebreaker rules in a few cases: First, drop the question(s) with the fewest options until a single winner emerges. If any ties remained (or if all questions had the same number of options, as in the Class Cards category), they were broken in favor of whoever submitted their entry first, according to the Google Forms timestamps. The complete rules are re-copied at the bottom of this post.
Now, without further ado…
Best Score in "Most Popular Card" Questions, and winner of the
#1 Fortune Tellerflair:
u/calitri-san, with a momentous 7 correct predictions out of 13!
Best Score in "Least Popular Card" Questions, and winner of the
Blastmaster of Disasterflair:
u/narvoxx, with a staggering 11 out of 13 correct predictions! This was the only category with a multi-point margin of victory.
Best Score in "Class Card" Questions, and winner of the
Swampqueen of the Metaflair:
u/EarthKwake, with a nefarious 11 out of 18 correct predictions.
Best Score in "Neutral Card" Questions, and winner of the
u/tynman35… AND u/izkatul! These two emerged from the ruckus of what was originally a five-way tie. But even the League couldn't pick just one, because the two winners had submitted identical correct answers! It's only fair that they share the title.
And finally, Best Overall Score, and Winner of
u/DipoTime, with an 14 out of 26 correct predictions! No ties here. Our uncontested overall victor was the only contestant to answer more than half of all questions correctly!
Congratulations to the winners, encouragement to the losers, and a big thanks to everyone for your patience while I put everything together.
The complete data is available here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15mV6R2E-HAA4DQ6MUpfxdTF3YVSKIWQt4W0BTYOHIhQ/edit?usp=sharing. The final tab labeled "Stats" contains playrates for all cards at the time judging began.
The contest was scored with HSReplay data, as described in the announcement post and survey intro (copied further down). The snapshot was taken 30 days post-release (the scheduled time), so it won't necessarily match the data on the site right now.
Bold answers received the majority or plurality of predictions in their category. If more than one card was counted correct, that means multiple cards were within the margin of error cutoff.
|Class/Rarity||Correct Answer(s) (Most)||% correct (Most)||Correct Answer(s) (Least)||% correct (Least)|
|Druid||Dreamway Guardians, Blessing of the Ancients, Acornbearer, The Forest's Aid||36%||Lifeweaver, Crystal Stag||13%|
|Mage||Conjurer's Calling||10%||Kirin Tor Tricaster||26%|
|Paladin||Mysterious Blade||48%||Dragon Speaker||9%|
|Priest||Forbidden Words||28%||Shadowy Figure||26%|
|Rogue||EVIL Miscreant||12%||Daring Escape||18%|
|Shaman||Hagatha's Scheme, Walking Fountain||14%||Mutate||40%|
|Warlock||EVIL Genius||14%||Darkest Hour||29%|
|Warrior||Omega Devastator||34%||Dr. Boom's Scheme, The Boom Reaver, Dimensional Ripper||76%|
|Neutral Common||EVIL Cable Rat||5%||Flight Master||8%|
|Neutral Rare||Hecklebot||31%||Spellward Jeweler||9%|
|Neutral Epic||Magic Carpet||11||Azerite Elemental, Whirlwind Tempest||44%|
|Neutral Legendary||Archivist Elysiana||9%||Barista Lynchen, Jepetto Joybuzz||31%|
The original Google forms survey was closed when the expansion released. I've reposted the introduction with the rules below:
Welcome, lackey, to your first League of E.V.I.L. mission!
The submission phase is currently open, and will remain open until the expansion drops. Entries submitted after release in any region will not be counted.
The contest will end on the 30th day after release, or upon the release of a balancing patch, whichever comes first.
Flair prizes will be awarded across five categories, as follows:
Highest Overall Score: "E.V.I.L. Arch-Prophet" (All 26 questions) Highest Score in Class Cards: "Swampqueen of the Meta" (18 questions) Highest Score in Neutral Cards: "Hunch-Clan Heistbaron" (8 questions) Highest Score in "Most Popular" Cards: "#1 Fortune Teller" (13 questions) Highest Score in "Least Popular" Cards: "Blastmaster of Disaster" (13 questions)
Note that each question will count towards multiple categories.
Each item is worth 1 Point, unless otherwise noted.
All predictions will be judged by a snapshot of HSRreplay data as of the end of the contest, set to Ranked Standard, Last 14 Days, and Legend through 25. Popularity is ranked according to "In % of decks", filtering by class where applicable.
Since judges are fallible, and might not be quick enough to grab the snapshot the exact instant the contest ends, some leeway will be built in. Predictions may count more than one correct answer, within a certain threshold:
Most Popular Whatever: Full credit within 0.95x of the top card. (e.g. if most is 20%, cutoff at 19% and up.) Least Popular Whatever: Full credit within 1.2x of bottom card. (e.g. if least is 2%, cutoff at 2.4% and down.)
In the event of a tie in any category, the questions with the fewest choices will be dropped until a winner emerges. If a tie still remains, the winner of the category will be whichever player submitted their form first, according to Google Forms timestamps.
Good luck! But not THAT kind of good.
Source: Original link
© Post "Results of the Official Rise of Shadows Prediction Contest" for game HearthStone.
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