HearthStone

Results of the Official Rise of Shadows Prediction Contest

hearthstone 9 - Results of the Official Rise of Shadows Prediction Contest
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It's my honor, at long last, to announce the results of the Official r/Hearthstone Rise of Shadows Prediction Contest!

Back before Rise of Shadows was released, in early April, over 1800 lackeys-in-training submitted their predictions. For every class, as well as every neutral rarity, E.V.I.L. aspirants strove to predict which cards would be most popular, and which card would be least popular.

The contest was so tight, we had to resort to tiebreaker rules in a few cases: First, drop the question(s) with the fewest options until a single winner emerges. If any ties remained (or if all questions had the same number of options, as in the Class Cards category), they were broken in favor of whoever submitted their entry first, according to the Google Forms timestamps. The complete rules are re-copied at the bottom of this post.

Now, without further ado…

THE WINNERS

Congratulations to the winners, encouragement to the losers, and a big thanks to everyone for your patience while I put everything together.

The complete data is available here:
edit?usp=sharing - Results of the Official Rise of Shadows Prediction Contest
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15mV6R2E-HAA4DQ6MUpfxdTF3YVSKIWQt4W0BTYOHIhQ/edit?usp=sharing. The final tab labeled "Stats" contains playrates for all cards at the time judging began.

THE ANSWERS

The contest was scored with HSReplay data, as described in the announcement post and survey intro (copied further down). The snapshot was taken 30 days post-release (the scheduled time), so it won't necessarily match the data on the site right now.

Bold answers received the majority or plurality of predictions in their category. If more than one card was counted correct, that means multiple cards were within the margin of error cutoff.

Загрузка...
Class/Rarity Correct Answer(s) (Most) % correct (Most) Correct Answer(s) (Least) % correct (Least)
Druid Dreamway Guardians, Blessing of the Ancients, Acornbearer, The Forest's Aid 36% Lifeweaver, Crystal Stag 13%
Hunter Ursatron 5% Arcane Fletcher 17%
Mage Conjurer's Calling 10% Kirin Tor Tricaster 26%
Paladin Mysterious Blade 48% Dragon Speaker 9%
Priest Forbidden Words 28% Shadowy Figure 26%
Rogue EVIL Miscreant 12% Daring Escape 18%
Shaman Hagatha's Scheme, Walking Fountain 14% Mutate 40%
Warlock EVIL Genius 14% Darkest Hour 29%
Warrior Omega Devastator 34% Dr. Boom's Scheme, The Boom Reaver, Dimensional Ripper 76%
Neutral Common EVIL Cable Rat 5% Flight Master 8%
Neutral Rare Hecklebot 31% Spellward Jeweler 9%
Neutral Epic Magic Carpet 11 Azerite Elemental, Whirlwind Tempest 44%
Neutral Legendary Archivist Elysiana 9% Barista Lynchen, Jepetto Joybuzz 31%

The original Google forms survey was closed when the expansion released. I've reposted the introduction with the rules below:

Welcome, lackey, to your first League of E.V.I.L. mission!

The submission phase is currently open, and will remain open until the expansion drops. Entries submitted after release in any region will not be counted.

The contest will end on the 30th day after release, or upon the release of a balancing patch, whichever comes first.

Flair prizes will be awarded across five categories, as follows:

Highest Overall Score: "E.V.I.L. Arch-Prophet" (All 26 questions) Highest Score in Class Cards: "Swampqueen of the Meta" (18 questions) Highest Score in Neutral Cards: "Hunch-Clan Heistbaron" (8 questions) Highest Score in "Most Popular" Cards: "#1 Fortune Teller" (13 questions) Highest Score in "Least Popular" Cards: "Blastmaster of Disaster" (13 questions)

Note that each question will count towards multiple categories.

SCORING:

Each item is worth 1 Point, unless otherwise noted.

All predictions will be judged by a snapshot of HSRreplay data as of the end of the contest, set to Ranked Standard, Last 14 Days, and Legend through 25. Popularity is ranked according to "In % of decks", filtering by class where applicable.

https://hsreplay.net/cards/#set=DALARAN&sortBy=includedPopularity

Since judges are fallible, and might not be quick enough to grab the snapshot the exact instant the contest ends, some leeway will be built in. Predictions may count more than one correct answer, within a certain threshold:

Most Popular Whatever: Full credit within 0.95x of the top card. (e.g. if most is 20%, cutoff at 19% and up.) Least Popular Whatever: Full credit within 1.2x of bottom card. (e.g. if least is 2%, cutoff at 2.4% and down.)

In the event of a tie in any category, the questions with the fewest choices will be dropped until a winner emerges. If a tie still remains, the winner of the category will be whichever player submitted their form first, according to Google Forms timestamps.

Good luck! But not THAT kind of good.

Source: Original link


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