Most of you will likely recognize me from tirelessly posting the weekly Free-to-Play Rotation posts and – until they ceased to be – the Heroic Deals. Readers of these will also know that I have worked on making a good overview available for when expect any given Hero to be on the Free-to-Play Hero Rotation and, as of very recently, Hero Sales as well.
If you want to skip all the detailed descriptions, here is the actual pages for it:
- Full Predictions:
- Individual Hero Predictions: https://nexuscompendium.com/hero.php?h=alarak#weekly (Alarak, to please the Highlord)
As can be seen, this is all part of my Nexus Compendium-project, which I started at the end of May, 2018, with the goal of showing the data from the game that wasn't otherwise available, and make connections where none were available previously. Playing with the data, basically – and something I lastly posted about here for… ages ago.
Basically, I trawl through all the existing data, which is currently:
- 215 Weekly Free-to-Play Rotations (where Heroes have been on rotation 2.447 times, since 2015-02-10)!
- 210 Sales and Heroic Deals (where Heroes have been on sale 357 times since 2015-01-13)!
It shouldn't come as a surprise that Rotation-data generally give better results, as there's much more data to work with, but it also has a fixed interval for the first rotation (5 weeks post release) – it's also something that I've been comparing for quite a while, as the Rotation data as been posted, with quite good results.
However, the interesting part has always been the Hero Sales, and looking at that – and while a prediction for this has been available on the individual Hero Pages for a while now, it's much more useful as a combined list.
How does the list work?
In short, the Predictions Overview shows the data for the next 3 (full) weeks. That is, if the current week has missing data for either Sales, the next 4 full weeks are shown for those, and 3 for Rotations – the opposite also applies, although it's very rare these days. All of these have their reasons for this date listed.
If no Heroes are predicted for one or more of those weeks, a text is shown to display it. This usually applies for Sales.
After that, the remaining Heroes are listed, along with their predicted date, and how many weeks there is until that date. To see the reasoning, simply click the Hero to see their individual page.
How is the predicted date determined?
In short, the predicted date is determined as such:
- All previous Rotations / Sales are run through.
- An average is calculated. Rotations count from the first instance, while Sales include the time since release (I'm probably adding medians as well soon).
- If the week-difference has been identical for a few instances, that number is used instead of the average.
- Placement on the list for a given week is based on the "shakiness" of the data, so stuff like a big spread in min- and maximum week-difference is a minus (something medians should fix), while consistency is a plus. Delays also causes a plus, as that increases the likeness of appearing.
And, of course, lots of other details.
As always, I'm open to all kinds of suggestions on how to improve it, making it look better and such. I'll refrain from getting into my planned features for the site, but it should be easy to figure that out by looking at the page's news-feed. Still, feel free to ask questions about things that isn't really shown in the site as well, I might be able to find it by looking into the data.
I hope you'll use it – that's why I made it in the first place!
Source: Original link
© Post "Full Rotation and Sale Predictions for all Heroes" for game Heroes of the Storm.
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