Individual Hero winrates can be misleading because of pepegas taking bad Talents and bringing down the Hero's overall winrate (e.g. Abathur Locust Build, Charizard Build Diablo).
Therefore, seeing that although it's easy to see the highest winrate Heroes on the online sites it's not easy to see not just the highest winrate Talent across Heroes but that adjusted for sample size, I made a simple scraping script in R that pulls this information.
I ranked, on the current game build and in Storm League across all ranks, >50% winrate Talents by lowest p-value with an exact binomial significance test of the difference vs. a 50% winrate. That is, Talents which are highly unlikely to be no better than chance, avoiding the problem of Talents only taken in a handful of games which happen to have unbelievably high Winrates.
Note that this has an inherent bias toward lvl 20 Talents, as not all games ever reach lvl 20 for either team, and especially a losing team, and higher talent tiers in general. To correct for this I would need to know the average winrate of teams reaching a given talent tier. If I knew that I could rank by p-value relative to the average for that tier, and therefore Talents could be compared across tiers as those that are especially strong relative to the average for that game state.
Even still I think this is useful information, as picking a Hero and building toward a particular strong lategame Talent, then putting an emphasis on soaking and actually reaching that point of the game, is still a good strategy in general (at least on maps not named Braxis Holdout).
It also wouldn't be too hard to construct a separate list by Map.
I could also break this out into "Talent Tiers," of Talents with overlapping 95% confidence intervals, or whatever confidence level makes sense (essentially indistinguishably strong from each other) and make a visual, potentially.
Anyway, results in crude form for now as R output:
Talent Winrate p_values > 64.06 5.257079e-194 > 61.66 1.003827e-146 > 61.81 2.543803e-141 > 64.29 4.991691e-134 > 61.85 5.075338e-118 > 62.40 1.004445e-113 > 61.82 4.637417e-108 > 67.57 9.657258e-108 > 63.82 1.946082e-103 > 59.76 5.189426e-91 > 64.06 8.544372e-88 > 63.03 3.949112e-81 > 61.64 6.323204e-77 > 61.76 2.084678e-76 > 60.52 2.080134e-67 > 62.74 3.431280e-66 > 66.20 6.113840e-66 > 57.15 1.859411e-62 > 57.43 3.777810e-61 > 62.96 4.040687e-58 > 58.28 4.366914e-58 > 59.13 6.970427e-58 > 62.43 7.756712e-58 > 65.14 6.509154e-57 > 59.73 1.125061e-55 > 62.20 2.269963e-55 > 63.10 1.471533e-54 > 56.83 1.579940e-54 > 69.11 1.062669e-53 > 65.99 1.774959e-53 > 62.17 7.943471e-53 > 67.53 2.997100e-52 > 57.08 2.255043e-51 > 62.61 1.269539e-50 > 58.79 1.933223e-50 > 61.27 2.669674e-50 > 59.12 5.217469e-50 > 61.24 3.845911e-49 > 60.89 1.943683e-48 > 64.45 1.690444e-47 > 58.09 1.106935e-46 > 61.64 1.630778e-46 > 70.02 1.333834e-45 > 62.56 3.479807e-45 > 57.63 5.275148e-45 > 66.13 1.537362e-44 > 56.68 1.723944e-44 > 63.93 1.908677e-44 > 66.01 3.220665e-43 > 57.86 3.754741e-43 > 65.40 4.394826e-43 > 59.83 5.808439e-43 > 64.36 9.688137e-42 > 60.23 1.047211e-41 > 63.13 2.367452e-41 > 63.22 1.799911e-40 > 55.83 3.264183e-39 > 62.98 8.907498e-39 > 55.85 9.856329e-39 > 57.94 1.066969e-38 > 68.05 4.333739e-38 > 59.84 4.512264e-38 > 56.23 8.156312e-37 > 63.61 1.203853e-36 > 61.28 2.577388e-36 > 61.16 1.079016e-35 > 61.85 1.112375e-35 > 63.87 2.060092e-35 > 59.24 1.319696e-34 > 54.98 1.446066e-34 > 63.52 1.713886e-34 > 64.73 2.246135e-34 > 60.00 6.472329e-34 > 66.62 9.437165e-34 > 61.79 2.559685e-33 > 58.62 2.888418e-33 > 60.71 3.959093e-33 > 56.44 5.791810e-33 > 54.13 3.291166e-32 > 58.22 3.298946e-32 > 62.03 6.414441e-32 > 60.50 8.664571e-32 > 59.38 9.747811e-32 > 59.95 1.578224e-31 > 58.64 3.036631e-31 > 60.61 1.098142e-30 > 62.21 2.163823e-30 > 58.52 2.743641e-30 > 62.43 5.524053e-30 > 64.39 9.172538e-30 > 58.22 9.652309e-30 > 55.71 1.295959e-29 > 57.85 2.963631e-29 > 65.45 7.005030e-29 > 55.33 8.591582e-29
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© Post "I wrote a web scraper to get the best single Talents from heroesprofile" for game Heroes of the Storm.
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