Heroes of the Storm

Quantifying hero difficulty using relative win rates

HeroesoftheStorm 7 - Quantifying hero difficulty using relative win rates
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Inspired by the Whitemane difficulty thread, I made
edit?usp=sharing - Quantifying hero difficulty using relative win rates
two tables estimating the relative difficulty of each hero by two different metrics – hero experience and overall player skill – using Storm League data from hotslogs from the past 7 days.

The first method compares each hero's win rate among players with hero level 2-9 against that hero's win rate at hero levels 10-20. The goal here is to base difficulty on how a hero's win rate changes with experience with that hero. I did not filter by league. I chose an arbitrary cutoff of level 10, based on my own experience learning heroes.

The second method compares each hero's Bronze-league win rate against its win rate in Diamond and Master leagues combined (hero level 5+ in both groups). This method tries to capture the difference between a hero's skill floor and skill ceiling.

The correlation between the level-based and league-based difficulty scores is 0.526, which is moderate. I'd be interested to see what people think about these metrics and any alternative methods for attempting to define and quantify hero difficulty.

Here are the results, sorted by decreasing estimated difficulty:

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Pre- vs. post-level 10

Hero Lvl. 2-9 WR Lvl. 10-20 WR Difference Percentile
Cho 32 50.2 18.2 100
Gall 35 52 17 100
Probius 46 54.9 8.9 95.7
Yrel 40.7 48.8 8.1 93.1
Chen 40.1 47.8 7.7 91.4
Valeera 42 49.6 7.6 90.9
The Lost Vikings 43.9 50.2 6.3 82.9
Samuro 47.5 53.8 6.3 82.9
Medivh 42.1 48.3 6.2 82.2
Maiev 46.9 53 6.1 81.4
Whitemane 42.2 48.3 6.1 81.4
Malthael 47.9 53.9 6 80.6
Alexstrasza 44.1 50 5.9 79.8
Nova 40.8 46.5 5.7 78
Tassadar 39.3 45 5.7 78
Arthas 47.8 53 5.2 73.4
D.Va 44.6 49.8 5.2 73.4
Mephisto 46.5 51.6 5.1 72.5
Ragnaros 47.2 52.2 5 71.5
Hanzo 42.8 47.8 5 71.5
Deckard 42.6 47.5 4.9 70.4
Kel'Thuzad 49.5 54.2 4.7 68.4
Sgt. Hammer 47.5 52.2 4.7 68.4
Auriel 45 49.6 4.6 67.3
Stukov 46.3 50.7 4.4 65.1
Tracer 44.7 49.1 4.4 65.1
Alarak 48.6 52.9 4.3 64
Abathur 47 51.3 4.3 64
Lucio 46.6 50.7 4.1 61.8
Garrosh 43.9 47.9 4 60.7
Kerrigan 50.7 54.6 3.9 59.5
Junkrat 47 50.8 3.8 58.4
Zarya 46.9 50.2 3.3 52.5
Ana 50 53.3 3.3 52.5
Orphea 48.5 51.7 3.2 51.4
Imperius 46.3 49.5 3.2 51.4
Fenix 51.4 54.5 3.1 50.2
Malfurion 46.9 49.9 3 49
Greymane 46.2 49.1 2.9 47.8
Anub'arak 53.9 56.7 2.8 46.6
Gazlowe 50.4 53.1 2.7 45.5
Kharazim 47.8 50.5 2.7 45.5
Mal'Ganis 46.3 49 2.7 45.5
Gul'dan 45.3 48 2.7 45.5
Leoric 49.4 51.9 2.5 43.1
Genji 41.7 44.2 2.5 43.1
Dehaka 47.1 49.5 2.4 42
Blaze 46 48.4 2.4 42
Brightwing 48.3 50.5 2.2 39.7
Murky 49.6 51.8 2.2 39.7
Zul'jin 50.2 52.3 2.1 38.5
Tyrael 49.2 51.3 2.1 38.5
Zagara 49.4 51.4 2 37.4
Rehgar 51.1 52.9 1.8 35.2
Chromie 46.2 47.8 1.6 33
Sonya 48.2 49.7 1.5 32
Stitches 47.4 48.9 1.5 32
Lunara 49.7 51.1 1.4 30.9
Tyrande 50.8 52.1 1.3 29.9
Lt. Morales 49.5 50.8 1.3 29.9
Varian 49.2 50.5 1.3 29.9
Tychus 48.5 49.8 1.3 29.9
Artanis 50.1 51.2 1.1 27.9
Cassia 47.2 48.2 1 26.9
Diablo 46.1 47.1 1 26.9
E.T.C. 50.8 51.7 0.9 25.9
Uther 51.4 52.3 0.9 25.9
Xul 49.6 50.4 0.8 25
Johanna 48.9 49.3 0.4 21.3
Illidan 49.1 49.4 0.3 20.5
Li Li 47.7 48 0.3 20.5
Kael'thas 50.8 51 0.2 19.7
Li-Ming 43.6 43.7 0.1 18.9
Rexxar 58.1 58.1 18.1
Thrall 50.8 50.8 18.1
Nazeebo 49.4 49 -0.4 15.1
The Butcher 49.6 49.1 -0.5 14.4
Zeratul 52.5 51.8 -0.7 13.1
Muradin 46.7 45.9 -0.8 12.5
Sylvanas 53.1 52.1 -1 11.3
Falstad 53.6 52.4 -1.2 10.2
Jaina 53.9 52.1 -1.8 7.4
Raynor 54.2 52.2 -2 6.6
Valla 50.3 48.2 -2.1 6.3
Azmodan 53.4 50.7 -2.7 4.3

Bronze vs. Diamond+

Hero Bronze WR Diamond+ WR Difference Percentile
Cho 24.1 68.6 44.5 100
Gall 28.9 70.7 41.8 100
Probius 18.4 57.6 39.2 99.9
Valeera 32.1 63.3 31.2 97.5
Zarya 36.1 67.1 31 97.3
Kerrigan 41.6 70.5 28.9 94.4
Illidan 36.4 61.9 25.5 85.1
Yrel 37.7 62 24.3 80.2
Lucio 38.7 62.5 23.8 77.8
Malfurion 36.1 59.9 23.8 77.8
Muradin 35.1 58.8 23.7 77.3
The Lost Vikings 34.7 58.3 23.6 76.9
Cassia 37 59.8 22.8 72.8
Mephisto 35.3 57.9 22.6 71.7
Alexstrasza 39.1 61.4 22.3 70
Samuro 43.5 65.6 22.1 68.9
Zeratul 36.2 58.3 22.1 68.9
Ana 39.6 61.5 21.9 67.7
Auriel 42.5 64.4 21.9 67.7
Stitches 38.9 60.8 21.9 67.7
Alarak 39.2 60.7 21.5 65.4
Xul 42.7 64 21.3 64.2
Nazeebo 40.8 62 21.2 63.6
The Butcher 42.7 63.8 21.1 63
Arthas 41.3 62.3 21 62.4
Sylvanas 40.6 61.3 20.7 60.5
Murky 38.7 59.3 20.6 59.9
Tracer 42.5 62.9 20.4 58.6
Sonya 38.6 58.5 19.9 55.5
Tyrael 42.6 62.5 19.9 55.5
Gazlowe 45.9 65.7 19.8 54.8
Valla 39.7 59.5 19.8 54.8
Falstad 41.7 61.2 19.5 52.9
Garrosh 35.9 55.3 19.4 52.3
Imperius 36.1 55.3 19.2 51
Fenix 41.2 60.3 19.1 50.4
Medivh 36 55 19 49.7
Dehaka 35.1 54 18.9 49.1
Anub'arak 45 63.8 18.8 48.4
Stukov 39.5 58.3 18.8 48.4
Hanzo 34.8 53.2 18.4 45.9
Rexxar 48.6 67 18.4 45.9
Zul'jin 44.3 62.6 18.3 45.2
Nova 39.7 57.9 18.2 44.6
Leoric 43 61.1 18.1 43.9
Li Li 39.7 57.8 18.1 43.9
Orphea 41.9 59.7 17.8 42
Artanis 43.5 61.1 17.6 40.8
Chromie 37.8 55.4 17.6 40.8
Varian 42.3 59.7 17.4 39.5
Genji 33 50.3 17.3 38.9
Thrall 41.9 59.2 17.3 38.9
Deckard 42.1 59.1 17 37.1
Jaina 43.6 60.6 17 37.1
Kael'thas 46.1 63.1 17 37.1
Johanna 42.5 59.1 16.6 34.7
Maiev 42.4 58.9 16.5 34.1
Brightwing 42 58.4 16.4 33.5
Abathur 45.1 61.4 16.3 32.9
Kel'Thuzad 44.9 61.2 16.3 32.9
E.T.C. 41.5 57.5 16 31.2
Junkrat 38.8 54.8 16 31.2
Lt. Morales 42.2 58.2 16 31.2
Diablo 38.9 54.6 15.7 29.5
Li-Ming 34.7 50.1 15.4 27.8
Malthael 42.9 58.1 15.2 26.8
Gul'dan 38.4 53 14.6 23.7
Greymane 39.5 54 14.5 23.2
Tyrande 44.5 58.8 14.3 22.2
Zagara 43.9 58.2 14.3 22.2
Azmodan 46.1 60.2 14.1 21.3
Chen 44 58.1 14.1 21.3
Lunara 45.5 59.3 13.8 19.9
Mal'Ganis 39.3 53 13.7 19.4
Raynor 42.9 55.7 12.8 15.7
Uther 46.4 59 12.6 14.9
Sgt. Hammer 45.1 57.6 12.5 14.6
Rehgar 45.7 58 12.3 13.8
Tychus 43.2 55.4 12.2 13.5
Whitemane 29.7 41.7 12 12.8
Ragnaros 39.9 51.5 11.6 11.5
Kharazim 41.3 52.7 11.4 10.9
D.Va 42.3 52.5 10.2 7.7
Blaze 45 54.3 9.3 5.8
Tassadar 40.5 48.3 7.8 3.5

Source: Original link


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