Heroes of the Storm

Quantifying hero difficulty using relative win rates

HeroesoftheStorm 7 - Quantifying hero difficulty using relative win rates
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Inspired by the Whitemane difficulty thread, I made
edit?usp=sharing - Quantifying hero difficulty using relative win rates


two tables estimating the relative difficulty of each hero by two different metrics – hero experience and overall player skill – using Storm League data from hotslogs from the past 7 days.

The first method compares each hero's win rate among players with hero level 2-9 against that hero's win rate at hero levels 10-20. The goal here is to base difficulty on how a hero's win rate changes with experience with that hero. I did not filter by league. I chose an arbitrary cutoff of level 10, based on my own experience learning heroes.

The second method compares each hero's Bronze-league win rate against its win rate in Diamond and Master leagues combined (hero level 5+ in both groups). This method tries to capture the difference between a hero's skill floor and skill ceiling.

The correlation between the level-based and league-based difficulty scores is 0.526, which is moderate. I'd be interested to see what people think about these metrics and any alternative methods for attempting to define and quantify hero difficulty.

Here are the results, sorted by decreasing estimated difficulty:

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Pre- vs. post-level 10

HeroLvl. 2-9 WRLvl. 10-20 WRDifferencePercentile
Cho3250.218.2100
Gall355217100
Probius4654.98.995.7
Yrel40.748.88.193.1
Chen40.147.87.791.4
Valeera4249.67.690.9
The Lost Vikings43.950.26.382.9
Samuro47.553.86.382.9
Medivh42.148.36.282.2
Maiev46.9536.181.4
Whitemane42.248.36.181.4
Malthael47.953.9680.6
Alexstrasza44.1505.979.8
Nova40.846.55.778
Tassadar39.3455.778
Arthas47.8535.273.4
D.Va44.649.85.273.4
Mephisto46.551.65.172.5
Ragnaros47.252.2571.5
Hanzo42.847.8571.5
Deckard42.647.54.970.4
Kel'Thuzad49.554.24.768.4
Sgt. Hammer47.552.24.768.4
Auriel4549.64.667.3
Stukov46.350.74.465.1
Tracer44.749.14.465.1
Alarak48.652.94.364
Abathur4751.34.364
Lucio46.650.74.161.8
Garrosh43.947.9460.7
Kerrigan50.754.63.959.5
Junkrat4750.83.858.4
Zarya46.950.23.352.5
Ana5053.33.352.5
Orphea48.551.73.251.4
Imperius46.349.53.251.4
Fenix51.454.53.150.2
Malfurion46.949.9349
Greymane46.249.12.947.8
Anub'arak53.956.72.846.6
Gazlowe50.453.12.745.5
Kharazim47.850.52.745.5
Mal'Ganis46.3492.745.5
Gul'dan45.3482.745.5
Leoric49.451.92.543.1
Genji41.744.22.543.1
Dehaka47.149.52.442
Blaze4648.42.442
Brightwing48.350.52.239.7
Murky49.651.82.239.7
Zul'jin50.252.32.138.5
Tyrael49.251.32.138.5
Zagara49.451.4237.4
Rehgar51.152.91.835.2
Chromie46.247.81.633
Sonya48.249.71.532
Stitches47.448.91.532
Lunara49.751.11.430.9
Tyrande50.852.11.329.9
Lt. Morales49.550.81.329.9
Varian49.250.51.329.9
Tychus48.549.81.329.9
Artanis50.151.21.127.9
Cassia47.248.2126.9
Diablo46.147.1126.9
E.T.C.50.851.70.925.9
Uther51.452.30.925.9
Xul49.650.40.825
Johanna48.949.30.421.3
Illidan49.149.40.320.5
Li Li47.7480.320.5
Kael'thas50.8510.219.7
Li-Ming43.643.70.118.9
Rexxar58.158.118.1
Thrall50.850.818.1
Nazeebo49.449-0.415.1
The Butcher49.649.1-0.514.4
Zeratul52.551.8-0.713.1
Muradin46.745.9-0.812.5
Sylvanas53.152.1-111.3
Falstad53.652.4-1.210.2
Jaina53.952.1-1.87.4
Raynor54.252.2-26.6
Valla50.348.2-2.16.3
Azmodan53.450.7-2.74.3

Bronze vs. Diamond+

HeroBronze WRDiamond+ WRDifferencePercentile
Cho24.168.644.5100
Gall28.970.741.8100
Probius18.457.639.299.9
Valeera32.163.331.297.5
Zarya36.167.13197.3
Kerrigan41.670.528.994.4
Illidan36.461.925.585.1
Yrel37.76224.380.2
Lucio38.762.523.877.8
Malfurion36.159.923.877.8
Muradin35.158.823.777.3
The Lost Vikings34.758.323.676.9
Cassia3759.822.872.8
Mephisto35.357.922.671.7
Alexstrasza39.161.422.370
Samuro43.565.622.168.9
Zeratul36.258.322.168.9
Ana39.661.521.967.7
Auriel42.564.421.967.7
Stitches38.960.821.967.7
Alarak39.260.721.565.4
Xul42.76421.364.2
Nazeebo40.86221.263.6
The Butcher42.763.821.163
Arthas41.362.32162.4
Sylvanas40.661.320.760.5
Murky38.759.320.659.9
Tracer42.562.920.458.6
Sonya38.658.519.955.5
Tyrael42.662.519.955.5
Gazlowe45.965.719.854.8
Valla39.759.519.854.8
Falstad41.761.219.552.9
Garrosh35.955.319.452.3
Imperius36.155.319.251
Fenix41.260.319.150.4
Medivh36551949.7
Dehaka35.15418.949.1
Anub'arak4563.818.848.4
Stukov39.558.318.848.4
Hanzo34.853.218.445.9
Rexxar48.66718.445.9
Zul'jin44.362.618.345.2
Nova39.757.918.244.6
Leoric4361.118.143.9
Li Li39.757.818.143.9
Orphea41.959.717.842
Artanis43.561.117.640.8
Chromie37.855.417.640.8
Varian42.359.717.439.5
Genji3350.317.338.9
Thrall41.959.217.338.9
Deckard42.159.11737.1
Jaina43.660.61737.1
Kael'thas46.163.11737.1
Johanna42.559.116.634.7
Maiev42.458.916.534.1
Brightwing4258.416.433.5
Abathur45.161.416.332.9
Kel'Thuzad44.961.216.332.9
E.T.C.41.557.51631.2
Junkrat38.854.81631.2
Lt. Morales42.258.21631.2
Diablo38.954.615.729.5
Li-Ming34.750.115.427.8
Malthael42.958.115.226.8
Gul'dan38.45314.623.7
Greymane39.55414.523.2
Tyrande44.558.814.322.2
Zagara43.958.214.322.2
Azmodan46.160.214.121.3
Chen4458.114.121.3
Lunara45.559.313.819.9
Mal'Ganis39.35313.719.4
Raynor42.955.712.815.7
Uther46.45912.614.9
Sgt. Hammer45.157.612.514.6
Rehgar45.75812.313.8
Tychus43.255.412.213.5
Whitemane29.741.71212.8
Ragnaros39.951.511.611.5
Kharazim41.352.711.410.9
D.Va42.352.510.27.7
Blaze4554.39.35.8
Tassadar40.548.37.83.5

Source: Original link


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