Ysera's Gift always sounded weak to me; Regrowth heals pretty slowly, how much of a difference would +60% on it really make? But I decided to actually run the numbers to compare the 3 talents, so here we go. (I'll be using baseline stats the whole time.)
Ysera's Gift increases Regrowth's healing by 60%, and Regrowth heals for 380 over 20 seconds. That means Regrowth heals for 19 per second, and Ysera's Gift heals for an additional 11.4 per second. (Already, that's not an impressive figure at all, but we'll continue calculating.) Moonfire heals for 130 per hero hit, which means Ysera's Gift is worth 1 additional Moonfire's worth of healing every 11.6 seconds. These 2 metrics will let us compare Ysera's gift to its competitors.
Moonlit Harmony is easier to calculate, so I'll cover it before Nature's Balance. Moonlit Harmony's Healing depends both on how many Regrowths you have active and how many Moonfires you hit. We can compare its healing to Ysera's Gift (11.4 per second) by looking at what it would take for them to be equal, which looks like this:
- 2 Regrowths: MH heals for 39 per Moonfire hit. Thus, 1 Moonfire every 3.4 seconds would equal 11.4 hps.
- 3 Regrowths: MH heals for 58.5 per Moonfire hit. Thus, 1 Moonfire every 5.1 seconds would equal 11.4 hps.
- 4 Regrowths: MH heals for 78 per Moonfire hit. Thus, 1 Moonfire every 6.8 seconds would equal 11.4 hps.
- 5 Regrowths: MH heals for 97.5 per Moonfire hit. Thus, 1 Moonfire every 8.6 seconds would equal 11.4 hps.
Now we just have to ask how realistic are these scenarios. Even with just 2 Regrowths, you can out-heal Ysera's Gift if you just hit Moonfire on cooldown (or get multi-hits). Now, that's not always doable, but you should have more than 2 Regrowths active in a fight or skirmish anyway. At 3 or 4 Regrowths it becomes pretty easy to out-heal Ysera's Gift, and it's not hard to get up that high, especially with Rejuvenation. 5 Regrowths is pretty hard, but if you get there, it becomes trivial to out-heal Ysera's Gift. Overall, so long as there are enemies around to Moonfire, it appears that Moonlit Harmony just outputs more healing than Ysera's Gift.
Nature's Balance gives almost no direct extra healing, but any good Malfurion player will tell you that the extra area on Moonfire equates to more healing in practice since it will give you more Moonfire hits overtime and make it harder to miss. The extra 3 seconds of Regrowth duration is also a nice bonus that has a lot of synergy with Malfurion's kit.
While it may seem daunting to calculate the extra healing provided by this talent, we know that Ysera's Gift is worth 1 extra Moonfire-heal every 11.6 seconds. That means if Nature's Balance lets us hit 1 additional Moonfire every 11-12 seconds on average, then by default it's already keeping pace with Ysera's Gift's healing. If we factor in the benefits of also having +3 seconds to Regrowth's duration, you could probably justify hitting one extra Moonfire every ~15 seconds, or perhaps longer, as being about equal value to Ysera's Gift. (Admittedly this figure is a bit handwave-y but it seems reasonable to me.) While I don't know how many extra Moonfire hits you should expect out of Nature's Balance, I think that if you can't expect even one extra hit in fifteen seconds during a fight or skirmish, then maybe we should stop picking the talent. I'm willing to go out on a limb and assume that it's not that hard to get extra Moonfire hits, which means Nature's Balance would, on average, out-heal Ysera's Gift in most fights and skirmishes.
Before concluding, it is important to ask if there's any situational factors to consider besides just the raw healing. Fortunately, there aren't any significant ones in this case. Ysera's Gift, unlike its competitors, does not require hitting Moonfires to work, however this is only useful outside of combat. While Ysera's Gift is pretty good at healing out of combat, that's not very significant at level 16. Ysera's Gift can also help you conserve mana by just relying on your Q for healing, but this is also not very significant at level 16. Ysera's Gift could be more useful than the others against heavy poke, like a Chromie, but only if you're also zoned out from hitting Moonfires, in which case it will be very difficult to heal large amounts of poke regardless of your talents.
And of course, Ysera's Gift has the condition that you must be above 75% health for it to work at all. This means the talent is basically useless for healing yourself, and if you ever drop to 50% health or less for whatever reason, you just won't have a level 16 talent at all for a while. The other talents have no such restriction.
Conclusion: After going through this exercise, I must conclude that Ysera's Gift is just worse than both Nature's Balance and Moonlit Harmony. It is easy to out-heal Ysera's Gift with either of the alternatives and Ysera's Gift has an annoying condition that the others don't. There's no situations where Ysera's Gift becomes much more practical than the alternatives either. I don't see why I would ever pick Ysera's Gift over the alternatives. It seem like the healing needs to be bumped up to be competitive.
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