Heroes of the Storm

The statistically most OP Talents/Builds by map in the game as of this patch (by web-scraping and analyzing Heroesprofile data)

HeroesoftheStorm 10 - The statistically most OP Talents/Builds by map in the game as of this patch (by web-scraping and analyzing Heroesprofile data)
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(Re-posting since I've significantly re-worked the analysis in response to some serious limitations in the original posting)

Individual Hero Winrates can be misleading because of pepegas taking bad Talents and dragging down the average performance on the Hero (e.g. Abathur Locust Build, Charizard Build Diablo, Black Hole Tassadar, Headhunter Zul'jin this patch). It's decent information for determining ban priority (along with Popularity) in the absence of specific targeted knowledge about your opponents, but on its own not the optimal information for determing Hero strength with best possible build, for what's OP that you can exploit for climbing.

Therefore, seeing that although it's easy to see the highest winrate Heroes on the online sites it's not easy to see not just the highest winrate Talent across all Heroes but also regressed toward the mean according for sample size, I made a simple scraping and analysis script in R that pulls this information.

I ranked, on the current game build and in Storm League across all ranks, > baseline winrate (baseline is the average winrate of Talents by tier across all Heroes) Talents by lowest p-value with an exact binomial significance test of the difference. That is, Talents which are highly unlikely to be no better than chance, avoiding the problem of Talents only taken in a handful of games which happen to have unbelievably high Winrates.

This also accounts for the variance in the estimates of baseline winrates at each Tier; the level 20 Talent winrate baseline has the highest variance, since not all games reach lvl 20 for either Team (let alone both).

Baseline lvl 20 talent Winrate as of this writing is 60.5087% (that's the average winrate of all lvl 20 Talents, showing a significant percent of games where one team reaches lvl 20 end before the other team reaches 20, and of course very often in the first team's favor).

For lvl 16 it's 53.09802%, for lvl 13 it's 50.52292%, and for lvl 10 and lower it's extremely close to 50% (very rare for a game to end before both teams reach level 10, even on Braxis Holdout).

Note that although the ranking is by highest confidence of being better than baseline for that Tier (most proven game winning Talents) and these all have extremely high evidence of being strong, the exact ranking/differences from each other in most cases are not significant; these are all very strong Talents/Builds.

tl;dr Sonya W build OP is the most consistent, grossly OP on every map. But there are a lot of other finds here as well, with Recklessness Zul'jin being very strong, W build Uther, Rexxar Q build, Lucio Up the Frequency, Mura, Anub beetle build, Cassia, etc. having extraordinarily high winrate Talent options.

Overall:

 Talent Wins Games baseline Tier wins_by_tier games_by_tier p_values Winrate No Escape 8197 14326 0.5052484 13 523743 1036605 3.336632e-57 0.5721765 Shattered Ground 6872 12029 0.4992837 4 525886 1053281 1.025932e-55 0.5712861 Furious Blow 6594 11635 0.4992535 1 525997 1053567 1.252323e-47 0.5667383 Battle Rage 4679 8083 0.4993461 7 525750 1052877 3.602813e-46 0.5788692 Giant Slammer 6762 11309 0.5310729 16 510711 961659 7.038105e-46 0.5979309 Recklessness 7461 13339 0.4992535 1 525997 1053567 2.548744e-43 0.5593373 Wrath of the Berserker 7223 12930 0.4998873 10 525479 1051195 2.757706e-40 0.5586234 Unleash the Boars 3079 5343 0.4998873 10 525479 1051195 6.590816e-29 0.5762680 Hunter-Gatherer 2575 4435 0.4992837 4 525886 1053281 2.562698e-27 0.5806088 Eye of Zul'jin 8730 15922 0.5052484 13 523743 1036605 3.936879e-27 0.5482980 Wave of Light 2742 4753 0.4992535 1 525997 1053567 1.113615e-26 0.5768988 Hand of Protection 5319 9601 0.4993461 7 525750 1052877 1.376704e-26 0.5540048 Benediction 4725 8003 0.5310729 16 510711 961659 2.185806e-26 0.5904036 Well Met 5688 10197 0.5052484 13 523743 1036605 4.164510e-26 0.5578111 War Traveler 6329 11417 0.5052484 13 523743 1036605 1.551548e-25 0.5543488 Bird of Prey 2457 4251 0.4992535 1 525997 1053567 1.111841e-24 0.5779817 Holy Fire 3387 6010 0.4992837 4 525886 1053281 2.581666e-23 0.5635607 Up the Frequency 4438 7549 0.5310729 16 510711 961659 4.805888e-23 0.5878924 Surge of Light 8926 16605 0.4993461 7 525750 1052877 1.470345e-22 0.5375489 Dwarf Launch 7350 12815 0.5310729 16 510711 961659 8.589463e-22 0.5735466 Divine Storm 5815 10644 0.4998873 10 525479 1051195 1.515257e-21 0.5463172 Legion of Beetles 3675 6591 0.4992535 1 525997 1053567 3.395804e-21 0.5575785 Divine Shield 3894 7005 0.4998873 10 525479 1051195 8.955840e-21 0.5558887 Rush-down 6506 12000 0.4992837 4 525886 1053281 9.449324e-21 0.5421667 Amani Hide 5354 9804 0.4992837 4 525886 1053281 2.720493e-20 0.5461036 Bronzebeard Rage 13182 24641 0.5052484 13 523743 1036605 2.956492e-20 0.5349621 Bomb Toss 2727 4040 0.6051684 20 383491 633693 5.445991e-20 0.6750000 Aspect of the Hawk 1886 3221 0.5052484 13 523743 1036605 8.380637e-20 0.5855324 Slip 4220 7568 0.5052484 13 523743 1036605 1.011645e-19 0.5576110 Full Metal 7215 13425 0.4992535 1 525997 1053567 1.449808e-18 0.5374302 Archon 7422 13807 0.4998873 10 525479 1051195 1.459504e-18 0.5375534 Taz'dingo!Taz'dingo! 10385 19545 0.4998873 10 525479 1051195 3.068174e-18 0.5313379 Leeching Scarabs 3437 6197 0.4993461 7 525750 1052877 3.813224e-18 0.5546232 Static Electricity 7682 13517 0.5310729 16 510711 961659 6.111177e-18 0.5683214 Ark Reaktor 5101 8845 0.5310729 16 510711 961659 9.598945e-18 0.5767100 Blessed Champion 3050 5412 0.5052484 13 523743 1036605 1.050938e-17 0.5635625 Beetle, Juiced 2722 4584 0.5310729 16 510711 961659 1.724038e-17 0.5938045 Play Again! 1976 3454 0.4998873 10 525479 1051195 2.174921e-17 0.5720903 High Five 1935 3381 0.4998873 10 525479 1051195 3.773255e-17 0.5723159 Timewalker's Pursuit 2675 4776 0.4992535 1 525997 1053567 4.761322e-17 0.5600921 A Proper Greeting 3601 6536 0.4993461 7 525750 1052877 8.796508e-17 0.5509486 Hyperfocus Coils 3993 7284 0.4992837 4 525886 1053281 8.888191e-17 0.5481878 Exterminator 4840 8916 0.4992535 1 525997 1053567 2.525739e-16 0.5428443 Let the Killing Begin 4057 6999 0.5310729 16 510711 961659 4.230026e-16 0.5796542 

Alterac Pass:

Talent Wins Games baseline Tier wins_by_tier games_by_tier p_values Winrate No Escape 645 1093 0.5005958 13 42430 84759 3.896120e-09 0.5901189 Furious Blow 540 912 0.4985967 1 42459 85157 2.048224e-08 0.5921053 Giant Slammer 548 905 0.5183859 16 42123 81258 1.701371e-07 0.6055249 Shattered Ground 541 926 0.4985967 4 42459 85157 2.391998e-07 0.5842333 Arc Discharge 419 709 0.4986084 7 42459 85155 1.073399e-06 0.5909732 Starfall 168 262 0.4987021 10 42458 85137 4.111184e-06 0.6412214 Hand of Protection 462 806 0.4986084 7 42459 85155 2.481374e-05 0.5732010 Leeching Scarabs 300 507 0.4986084 7 42459 85155 3.274782e-05 0.5917160 Holy Fire 303 513 0.4985967 4 42459 85157 3.643284e-05 0.5906433 Legion of Beetles 334 570 0.4985967 1 42459 85157 3.658417e-05 0.5859649 Hyperfocus Coils 363 625 0.4985967 4 42459 85157 4.842333e-05 0.5808000 Bomb Toss 276 400 0.5926275 20 35208 59410 6.545204e-05 0.6900000 

Towers of Doom:

Talent Wins Games baseline Tier wins_by_tier games_by_tier p_values Winrate Large and In Charge 214 317 0.5345606 16 41816 78225 4.430218e-07 0.6750789 Wave of Light 240 382 0.4995409 1 42432 84942 5.727269e-07 0.6282723 Well Met 492 835 0.5028004 13 42373 84274 7.423370e-07 0.5892216 Play Again! 250 402 0.4998939 10 42420 84858 1.108007e-06 0.6218905 Benediction 414 658 0.5345606 16 41816 78225 1.292653e-06 0.6291793 Erik the Swift 169 264 0.4995467 4 42430 84937 4.608366e-06 0.6401515 Divine Storm 491 851 0.4998939 10 42420 84858 8.498860e-06 0.5769683 Hand of Protection 460 795 0.4996114 7 42422 84910 9.598575e-06 0.5786164 Spin To Win! 180 290 0.4996114 7 42422 84910 4.561410e-05 0.6206897 Surge of Light 773 1396 0.4996114 7 42422 84910 6.419362e-05 0.5537249 Recklessness 580 1032 0.4995409 1 42432 84942 6.855368e-05 0.5620155 Master of Destruction 414 722 0.4996114 7 42422 84910 8.479581e-05 0.5734072 

Volskaya Foundry:

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Talent Wins Games baseline Tier wins_by_tier games_by_tier p_values Winrate Recklessness 776 1322 0.5000522 1 43147 86285 3.447478e-10 0.5869894 Arcanite Axes 761 1328 0.5000695 7 43146 86280 1.422361e-07 0.5730422 Eye of Zul'jin 928 1650 0.5008303 13 43130 86117 7.382384e-07 0.5624242 Legion of Beetles 322 534 0.5000522 1 43147 86285 2.085774e-06 0.6029963 Shattered Ground 515 891 0.5000579 4 43147 86284 3.814016e-06 0.5780022 Wrong Place Wrong Time 618 1068 0.5094058 16 43056 84522 6.738424e-06 0.5786517 Beetle, Juiced 247 397 0.5094058 16 43056 84522 7.030684e-06 0.6221662 Burning Beetles 414 707 0.5008303 13 43130 86117 7.975783e-06 0.5855728 Taz'dingo!Taz'dingo! 1074 1949 0.5001275 10 43146 86270 8.737350e-06 0.5510518 Leeching Scarabs 305 511 0.5000695 7 43146 86280 1.306680e-05 0.5968689 War Traveler 614 1082 0.5008303 13 43130 86117 1.366409e-05 0.5674677 No Escape 576 1011 0.5008303 13 43130 86117 1.424788e-05 0.5697329 

Braxis Holdout:

Talent Wins Games baseline Tier wins_by_tier games_by_tier p_values Winrate Recklessness 836 1359 0.4994786 1 43589 87269 2.200740e-17 0.6151582 Amani Hide 567 926 0.4995128 4 43577 87239 8.326866e-12 0.6123110 Eye of Zul'jin 868 1417 0.5220533 13 42705 81802 1.226856e-11 0.6125618 Taz'dingo!Taz'dingo! 1045 1808 0.5026750 10 43503 86543 2.420581e-10 0.5779867 Unleash the Boars 631 1055 0.5026750 10 43503 86543 6.449277e-10 0.5981043 Wrong Place Wrong Time 543 795 0.5825111 16 38317 65779 7.774437e-09 0.6830189 Wrath of the Berserker 762 1308 0.5026750 10 43503 86543 1.050483e-08 0.5825688 Arcanite Axes 758 1308 0.4997648 7 43565 87171 1.056192e-08 0.5795107 Bird of Prey 583 997 0.4994786 1 43589 87269 8.274770e-08 0.5847543 Hunter-Gatherer 518 878 0.4995128 4 43577 87239 9.439851e-08 0.5899772 Battle Rage 408 682 0.4997648 7 43565 87171 2.952728e-07 0.5982405 Ferocity 359 598 0.4997648 7 43565 87171 9.715930e-07 0.6003344 

Battlefield of Eternity:

 Talent Wins Games baseline Tier wins_by_tier games_by_tier p_values Winrate Shattered Ground 628 1073 0.4991086 4 43955 88067 2.112108e-08 0.5852749 Exterminator 1715 3119 0.4990746 1 43955 88073 2.678187e-08 0.5498557 Recklessness 688 1187 0.4990746 1 43955 88073 3.709433e-08 0.5796125 A Proper Greeting 342 563 0.4992560 7 43953 88037 2.884057e-07 0.6074600 Eye of Zul'jin 912 1587 0.5103365 13 43744 85716 3.891056e-07 0.5746692 Taz'dingo!Taz'dingo! 1075 1932 0.4995732 10 43899 87873 8.365480e-07 0.5564182 Giant Slammer 579 912 0.5574097 16 41420 74308 2.550971e-06 0.6348684 Slowing Sands 431 739 0.4995732 10 43899 87873 6.303965e-06 0.5832206 Biotic Armor 457 789 0.4991086 4 43955 88067 7.555682e-06 0.5792142 Accelerando 373 634 0.4990746 1 43955 88073 7.688640e-06 0.5883281 No Escape 700 1223 0.5103365 13 43744 85716 1.732784e-05 0.5723630 Unstable Compound 1378 2540 0.4992560 7 43953 88037 1.794394e-05 0.5425197 

Infernal Shrines:

Talent Wins Games baseline Tier wins_by_tier games_by_tier p_values Winrate Giant Slammer 663 1087 0.5174675 16 42541 82210 1.315390e-09 0.6099356 Shattered Ground 672 1142 0.4994846 4 43127 86343 2.350651e-09 0.5884413 Furious Blow 656 1118 0.4994673 1 43132 86356 6.922063e-09 0.5867621 No Escape 809 1402 0.5028012 13 43079 85678 3.753687e-08 0.5770328 Wrath of the Berserker 791 1381 0.4997797 10 43111 86260 7.500993e-08 0.5727734 Rush-down 693 1200 0.4994846 4 43127 86343 8.403935e-08 0.5775000 Full Metal 758 1327 0.4994673 1 43132 86356 2.213406e-07 0.5712133 Archon 780 1369 0.4997797 10 43111 86260 2.918269e-07 0.5697589 Diverting Power 267 429 0.5174675 16 42541 82210 1.522481e-05 0.6223776 Micro Missiles 684 1220 0.4997797 10 43111 86260 2.512945e-05 0.5606557 Static Charge 865 1564 0.4994673 1 43132 86356 2.817522e-05 0.5530691 Hit The Nitrous 634 1132 0.4995309 7 43123 86327 5.294647e-05 0.5600707 

Tomb of the Spider Queen:

Talent Wins Games baseline Tier wins_by_tier games_by_tier p_values Winrate Hand of Protection 484 800 0.4996765 7 42474 85003 3.274303e-09 0.6050000 Play Again! 225 345 0.5000353 10 42462 84918 1.592526e-08 0.6521739 Wave of Light 260 411 0.4996297 1 42505 85073 7.871329e-08 0.6326034 Large and In Charge 187 278 0.5158312 16 42179 81769 1.398646e-07 0.6726619 Erik the Swift 134 198 0.4996766 4 42493 85041 7.084164e-07 0.6767677 War Traveler 569 984 0.5014665 13 42402 84556 1.706617e-06 0.5782520 Furious Blow 519 896 0.4996297 1 42505 85073 2.108456e-06 0.5792411 Benediction 418 692 0.5158312 16 42179 81769 3.636759e-06 0.6040462 Pursuit of Justice 256 418 0.4996766 4 42493 85041 4.696885e-06 0.6124402 Shattered Ground 517 901 0.4996766 4 42493 85041 9.571977e-06 0.5738069 Bomb Toss 259 368 0.5920176 20 37409 63189 1.182201e-05 0.7038043 No Escape 667 1181 0.5014665 13 42402 84556 1.617173e-05 0.5647756 

Cursed Hollow:

Talent Wins Games baseline Tier wins_by_tier games_by_tier p_values Winrate Bronzebeard Rage 1233 2196 0.5060324 13 44837 88605 2.976983e-07 0.5614754 Furious Blow 559 963 0.4996221 1 44950 89968 5.821364e-07 0.5804777 Shattered Ground 577 999 0.4996387 4 44950 89965 9.286278e-07 0.5775776 Giant Slammer 558 916 0.5277259 16 43549 82522 9.485478e-07 0.6091703 Battle Rage 404 680 0.4996831 7 44945 89947 9.522114e-07 0.5941176 No Escape 674 1166 0.5060324 13 44837 88605 1.105135e-06 0.5780446 Up the Frequency 442 723 0.5277259 16 43549 82522 6.880074e-06 0.6113416 Dwarf Launch 663 1115 0.5277259 16 43549 82522 8.797417e-06 0.5946188 Hell Rift 297 472 0.5277259 16 43549 82522 1.054287e-05 0.6292373 A Proper Greeting 331 558 0.4996831 7 44945 89947 1.157965e-05 0.5931900 Sledgehammer 917 1657 0.4996387 4 44950 89965 1.578693e-05 0.5534098 Slip 439 751 0.5060324 13 44837 88605 1.760970e-05 0.5845539 

Hanamura Temple:

Talent Wins Games baseline Tier wins_by_tier games_by_tier p_values Winrate No Escape 763 1268 0.5109975 13 44188 86474 1.211592e-10 0.6017350 Leap 684 1171 0.5002142 10 44368 88698 1.273869e-08 0.5841161 Furious Blow 581 991 0.4990162 1 44384 88943 4.432575e-08 0.5862765 Shattered Ground 610 1047 0.4990499 4 44384 88937 8.395810e-08 0.5826170 Massive Shove 670 1160 0.5002142 10 44368 88698 1.613943e-07 0.5775862 Reactive Ballistospores 493 836 0.4990162 1 44384 88943 1.752941e-07 0.5897129 Battle Rage 441 741 0.4991620 7 44377 88903 1.854518e-07 0.5951417 Giant Slammer 619 958 0.5654093 16 42646 75425 4.922623e-07 0.6461378 Hit The Nitrous 557 975 0.4991620 7 44377 88903 7.421699e-06 0.5712821 Wrath of the Berserker 588 1033 0.5002142 10 44368 88698 1.146534e-05 0.5692159 Biotic Armor 448 776 0.4990499 4 44384 88937 1.466175e-05 0.5773196 

Garden of Terror:

Talent Wins Games baseline Tier wins_by_tier games_by_tier p_values Winrate No Escape 789 1352 0.5012944 13 44342 88455 1.824788e-09 0.5835799 Shattered Ground 676 1152 0.4987422 4 44409 89042 2.786325e-09 0.5868056 Furious Blow 642 1096 0.4987366 1 44409 89043 1.026277e-08 0.5857664 Giant Slammer 670 1118 0.5161533 16 43952 85153 3.315302e-08 0.5992844 Battle Rage 509 862 0.4987590 7 44409 89039 8.666699e-08 0.5904872 Up the Frequency 418 680 0.5161533 16 43952 85153 2.789617e-07 0.6147059 Holy Fire 300 497 0.4987422 4 44409 89042 3.343741e-06 0.6036217 Wave of Light 227 372 0.4987366 1 44409 89043 1.903693e-05 0.6102151 Hand of Protection 457 796 0.4987590 7 44409 89039 2.573184e-05 0.5741206 Wrath of the Berserker 637 1138 0.4990280 10 44409 88991 4.882369e-05 0.5597540 Exterminator 465 817 0.4987366 1 44409 89043 6.064950e-05 0.5691554 Divine Storm 506 894 0.4990280 10 44409 88991 7.151502e-05 0.5659955 

Sky Temple:

Talent Wins Games baseline Tier wins_by_tier games_by_tier p_values Winrate Battle Rage 463 766 0.4987541 7 44837 89898 5.697636e-09 0.6044386 No Escape 760 1327 0.5009851 13 44754 89332 2.226655e-07 0.5727204 Shattered Ground 638 1107 0.4986655 4 44841 89922 3.054724e-07 0.5763324 Furious Blow 623 1083 0.4986323 1 44842 89930 5.982307e-07 0.5752539 Bird of Prey 184 290 0.4986323 1 44842 89930 3.971938e-06 0.6344828 Ancestral Strength 522 912 0.4986323 1 44842 89930 9.339044e-06 0.5723684 Unleash the Boars 235 384 0.4989260 10 44831 89855 1.015110e-05 0.6119792 Surge of Light 829 1497 0.4987541 7 44837 89898 2.397775e-05 0.5537742 Icefury Wand 319 541 0.4987541 7 44837 89898 2.749568e-05 0.5896488 Full Metal 655 1172 0.4986323 1 44842 89930 4.306268e-05 0.5588737 Giant Slammer 633 1093 0.5181735 16 44280 85454 6.472399e-05 0.5791400 Micro Missiles 614 1098 0.4989260 10 44831 89855 7.773074e-05 0.5591985 

Source: Original link


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© Post "The statistically most OP Talents/Builds by map in the game as of this patch (by web-scraping and analyzing Heroesprofile data)" for game Heroes of the Storm.


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