So the burning question is: is there a double agent in the main Hitman four? (47, Diana, Lucas, Olivia). I've seen a lot of theories that I like and all have various degrees of plausibility, but I ultimately think that at the moment, we don't have enough information to totally reach a solid conclusion, so for now, we'll just have to speculate till Hitman 3. BUT, for the fun of speculating, here's some theories I've considered:
There is no double agent, and The Constant/Arthur Edwards is trying to seed doubt in everyone’s minds to drive them apart and keep them from working as a coherent team. There could even be secrets being kept among the team from each other which might make the rifts even worse, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re still on the same team and Edwards is trying to ruin it, simply so he can take over Providence for himself. It's plausible he's been wanting the power for awhile, and when Lucas started his attack, it only sped up Edwards' own plans to assume control (see his quote in the new trailer).
Lucas is the double agent, because…
– He’s not thinking clearly and blinded by his own goals and quest for revenge, and has decided that working with Edwards to end up as part of the “new providence” would be the best path, so that he can have the power and make sure something like what happened to him and 47 can never happen again. I find this one a little shakey right now looking at the evidence we have around his character, but it might have some stock to it.
– The Constant is holding him hostage in a way, using some sort of pressure point to make Lucas do his bidding, as eluded to by the cutscene after Sapienza when Lucas obtains the second Providence key when they threaten Lucas and his "family, if he has any". I'm not sure what specifically they could be using against Lucas in this case, nor when Edwards could've pulled it off and threatened Lucas however.
– When Lucas escaped the Institute back in the day, Edwards found him and helped him but pressures him to do his bidding. I find this one super intriguing, but flawed– why go through all the trouble to meet with 47 and eliminate Janus? Unless it's an even grander plan than we know, and Lucas tired of being under the Constant's control, rebelled by siding with 47? A bigger stretch, but interesting to think about .
– He doesn’t want 47 to be distracted by the fact that Edwards is missing and instead focus on destroying the partners, so he lied about whatever text he received. Unless Lucas is really that blindly driven to destroy the partners, he should know that Edwards has somehow stripped them of their money and identities, and would want to focus on taking him down instead, in theory.
Diana is the double agent, because…
– She’s on the rocks with the choices 47 is making, and we know she’s not afraid to make choices for him when she knows he won’t do it (see: the ending of blood money)– maybe she saw him deciding to work with Lucas as a poor choice and after talking with Edwards on the boat, felt swayed enough for some reason to let him go and frame Lucas? Intriguing as well, but I’m not sure Diana would make this brash a decision, and we don’t have enough information to clearly see motives she would even have to do this. I think she’s rather loyal to 47 as well, though her loyalty to him could be cause for a motivation to be a double agent, if she can manage to wrap her logic a certain way. But still, hard to picture as of now with the lore we have.
Bonus evidence about character motivations I just think is neat to consider:
– Lucas institutes a ‘no unnecessary deaths’ rule in the militia– one that goes so far that the Delgados go to insane lengths to release a man they got info from, which Lucas checks up on (you can hear this conversation by eavesdropping in the Delgado office– Lucas has voiced lines on a phone call with him), and one Alma openly complains about. She calls him ‘squeamish about collateral damage’. However, Lucas also admits to Diana he’s willing to work with shady people and criminals to reach his higher goal. He blows up the Ether lab by strapping a bomb to a scientist. Maybe he's decided since Ether is providence, he has no qualms killing higher ranked employees. Or maybe he tried to justify it to himself, because that scientist saw his face, and he needs to keep his identity/status a secret.Lucas also talks about the weight things have on his conscience, and seems genuinely taken aback/grieved when he realizes he and 47 had a hand in killing Diana’s parents. Unless this is all an elaborate act, I feel like this is evidence that Lucas is trying to justify and atone for his actions to take down Providence– and he’s willing to reach that goal however he can, which makes the idea of him working with Edwards shakey right now, with the lore we currently have. This could quickly change, of course.
– Edwards seems genuinely baffled by Lucas’ actions (unless this is a ruse, of course). You can overhear these conversations Edwards has with a Providence contact on the phone in Sgàil in his private area
– On that note, there are reoccurring characters via phone convos! We never hear them, but other characters talk to them. The only ones I’m certain of at the moment is that Yuki and Edwards both call the same Providence contact. I would not be surprised to see them later.
– I think this is mostly known, but Olivia met Lucas when she was 7. It was in Sierra Leonne– where Edwards mentions Lucas did mercenary work. Chances are high that they met during Civil War there. The canon aspects of this are that they were both there, and Olivia was 7. The rest is conjecture based upon the fact that child soldiers were unfortunately frequent, to my understanding, Olivia is the only militia member to have direct, frequent, and face to face contact with Lucas, as well as KNOWING HIS NAME, which no other militia member knows– she’s the only member of the militia to remain after it disbands, she has no fear whatsoever talking back to Lucas, and he seems to talk to her in a fatherly/parental way at times. She even has her own security detail– I think you can overhear this on Colorado.
– I have a sneaking suspicion there might be a level where Lucas ends up a target in some way, whether he's a villain or not. Should be very interesting.
Anyway! Apologies for the long post, I just love trying to pick apart the lore we have. The games are so rich with story lore, both easy to find and squirreled away across NPCs conversations and things on the map. I really think we won't fully reach a conclusion of what's happening till January, but I can't help but wonder and be excited about what it might be like. What do you think?
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