Tl,dr: No if you look at winrate, but it's way more likely for them to show up in patch notes.
Hello all. This post is inspired by
u/PriagDE's post found here which tried to answer whether Riot buffs champions which will get a new skin. It is a separate post as it has a completely different method and covers a wider array of questions.
To me as a person, I'm a data scientist working in the retail business with a low number of projects at the time so I used this opportunity to train a little my webscraping skills. I post the results here as I find them interesting and hope you do too.
You can find all the data, scripts and figures
here if you want to use the data for your own analysis or scrape something else from the patch notes.
Table of contents:
- Webscraping of data from leagueofgraphs and the official patch notes
- Overview on the number of champion changes per patch and skins released
- Relation between the number of champion changes and skins released
- Relationship between released skins and winrate changes
- Final words
Webscraping of data from leagueofgraphs and the official patch notes
The first part I needed to do was gather data. To decide whether a champion got buffed when he gets a new skin, I will take the difference between the winrate 20 days before and 20 days after the patch got released. The 20 days are chosen in order to let the winrate settle a bit after patch changes.
This means I need to gather the patch notes history as well as the winrate of all champions. As mentioned by
u/PriagDE, upcoming skins were only included from patch 4.8 on, so I gathered the patch notes starting from 4.8. This matches nicely the available history on the winrate on leagueofgraphs which starts at the moment approximately at the beginning of season 4. The script which I made to do so is this:
lol_skins_winrate.py. Feel free to use it if you want to do something else with it. It is by no means optimized, but works also behind a proxy. You will need to get a copy of geckodriver to use Firefox as is done in the script.
I also collected the data on popularity and banrate if someone is interested. The saved data files used in the second step are these: lol_champions_bannrate.csv, lol_champions_beliebtheit.csv, lol_champions_winrate.csv and lol_patch_daten.csv containing the ban rate, popularity, win rate and patch data (which patch was released when with which champion getting changes and which new skins).
Take note that I didn't include the champion changes in 8.23(?) where they changed the runes system and changed base values for all the champions. In addition, I make no difference between skins and chromas released as Riot has an incentive to sell both to you. The skin list should be complete with the exception of some Urgot chromas (I think).
Overview on the number of champion changes per patch and skins released
The complete analysis script can be found here: lol_skins_nach_patches.R. Again, feel free to use to change it to answer your own questions if you want. It is again not optimized for speed, but for quick development (to all R users, I know there are too many for loops, but they do the job and I wanted to get it done quickly).
So the first question I wanted to get an answer is how match each champion shows up in the patch notes. This is not completely fair of course as newer released champs have less chances to appear in them, so keep this in mind. The table looks like this:
We can see our favorite problem childs Azir and Ryze showing up in the patch notes a lot. Given that the total number of considered patches is 121, Azir shows up in more than a quarter of them. On the other end of the scale, with have champions like Diana, Blitzcrank or Nami which remain rather stable over the whole time.
The following two graphs show the number of champion changes over the patches as well as the number of skins/chromas released over the patches. The red line is calculated using a cubic spline smoother with the degrees of freedom determined by cross validation:
Number of champion changes per patch.
Number of skins/chromas released per patch.
In the upper plot, we can see that Riot actually slowed down a bit starting in season 7 and does less changes per patch. In the lower plot, we see that the number of released skins/chromas remained fairly constant for quite some time. One might argue that the second half of season 8 and season 9 so far is higher, but the evidence for this is weak.
One thing not considered here is the amount of work that was necessary when champion reworks were made. The data consideres this as one skin due to the way the data is scraped, but the effort which was necessary by the skin team could have been higher, resulting in less skins published as a result. But in reworks, the also don't need to find a theme for the skins, so they can also be faster than with other skins. Just wanted to mention this as it's a possible source of error.
In addition, I had a look at the cross correlation between the number of champion changes and the skins released. This comes about that I thought I could see some anticorrelation in the two lines in the graphs above. I will explain below what that exactly means. The cross correlation graph looks like this:
Cross correlation between the number of champion changes and the number of released skins.
The lag is the difference in number of patches considered for the correlation. E.g. the positive value at lag 7 means that if a high number of champion changes is present this patch, the is a tendence for a high number of released skins/chromas 7 patches later. There is also considerable anticorrelation for a lag -5 and -6 which means that if 6 patches ago there were a lot of skins released, this patch has a tendence to have little champion changes.
I have little explanation of these values, only maybe that there a less skins on season start/mid-season/end-of-season as manpower is needed to get mid season right or worlds ready. But it's also only a tendence, the correlations are significant but not too big.
Relation between the number of champion changes and skins released
Here I had a look whether champions who get a skin released also got champion changes within the last 1 to 3 patches. I remember some comment in Meddlers quick gameplay thoughts where some Rioter wrote that working on a skin puts attention on said champion, making it more likely to get some work (even if only quality of life changes) on them done. Here are the results:
Number of skins considered in yellow, number of skins with champion getting changes in the last few patches in blue. Considered are the last 1 to 3 patches as well as the patch a skin/chroma got released.
We can see that considering the patch a skin/chroma gets released as well as the last 3 patches, there is a 42% chance of a champion getting changes. This is way higher that the average which is somewhere around 10% if we would assume that the champions selected for changes would happen randomly.
So this is confirmation that getting a skin/chroma comes with a strong connection to being changed in the patch notes. Remember here that correlation does not imply causation, so we cannot say whether skins/chromas have a causal link to being changed in the patch notes. But there is a strong suggestion that it might be the case.
Relationship between released skins and winrate changes
And finally, we will have a look whether a champion receiving a skin/chroma gets buffed. I will define getting buffed not by appearance in the patch notes, but by comparing the winrate of the corresponding champion 20 days before and 20 days after the patch release for any given skin/chroma. We can debate whether 20 days is a good time period, and maybe I should also consider a longer window before, but I think we can get some good results with 20 days. I excluded release skins for this analysis.
I define getting buffed this way as it also consideres everything that happens in a patch which also includes item changes or systemic jungle changes, where it can be that a champion gets a (compensation) buff on paper, but actually drops in winrate due to core items being changed for example.
I made one boxplot combining all the data available and one separating by season:
Boxplot with the change in winrate when a champion gets a skin/chroma. We see that there is almost no median change in winrate for these champions.
Boxplots with the change in winrate when a champion gets a skin/chroma, separated by season.
We can clearly see that there is no significant change in winrate when a champion gets a skin/chroma. I also put the data in the following table:
|Minimum||25% Quantile||Median||75% Quantile||Maximum||Mean|
We also see in the second graph that this remains fairly constant over the seasons, with season 7 actually being that champions which got new skins decrease in winrate.
Thank you for reading until here. I hope this has been an interesting read as it was interesting for me to do the analysis. If you have other interesting questions that you think could be answered with this data, write it in the comments and I try to answer them with the data. I don't have too much spare time at the moment anymore, so my answer might be a bit delayed, but I will try to get to them.
Have a good day 🙂
Source: Original link
© Post "An analysis on the question whether Riot buffs champions which get a new skin (with quite some graphs, data available from webscraping patch notes and leagueofgraphs if you want to do your own analysis)" for game League of Legends.
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