League of Legends

[LCS] The Chances of Each Team Making Playoffs, and How Some Get There and How Some Don’t

LeagueofLegends4 - [LCS] The Chances of Each Team Making Playoffs, and How Some Get There and How Some Don't
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With 10 matches remaining in the LCS Spring 2020 Regular Season, there are 1024 remaining scenarios of how the matches could go.

As such, these are the number of scenarios where X team ends in Y place, or ends up playing a tiebreaker for Y place:

Team1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th
C91024
FLY54824017648102
EG39238814076262
TSM53624414050468
100T14814420028819648
IMT14015218829420248
TL226841142064809616
DIG2486200426288
GG1266222174550
CLG1024

Here are the chances that X team ends up locking playoffs OR locks playing a tiebreaker for playoffs:

Team% chance
C9100%
FLY99.805%
EG99.805%
TSM99.219%
100T95.313%
IMT95.313%
TL42.188%
DIG10.742%
GG7.617%
CLG0%

Cursed Runs


FlyQuest / Evil Geniuses (0.195% of ending below 6th)

FlyQuest and Evil Geniuses share the same chances of making it to playoffs. The only way they don't make it to playoffs require the following:

  • 100T wins vs TSM
  • C9 wins vs EG
  • TL wins vs FLY
  • CLG or GG can win in Game 4
  • IMT wins vs DIG
  • TSM wins vs DIG
  • TL wins vs C9
  • IMT wins vs EG
  • 100T wins vs CLG

The only difference between their scenarios is the outcome of GG vs FLY. If FLY lose, and the above outcomes turn out to be true, they are out of playoffs. If GG lose, EG are out of playoffs.

Загрузка...

TSM (0.781% chance of ending below 6th)

TSM only has 8 scenarios where they definitely don't make playoffs.

All scenarios depend on the following:

  • 100T wins vs TSM
  • TL wins vs FLY
  • CLG vs GG doesn't matter
  • FLY wins vs GG
  • DIG wins vs TSM
  • TL wins vs C9
  • 100T wins vs TSM

C9 vs EG effects which outcomes are desired for a TSM lockout:

  • If C9 wins vs EG

    • IMT must go 1-1
  • If EG wins vs C9

    • IMT must go 1-1 or 2-0

100 Thieves (4.687% chance of ending below 6th)

There are 48 scenarios where 100T doesn't make it to tiebreakers for playoffs

Each of those scenarios depend on the following:

  • TSM wins vs 100T
  • TL wins vs FLY
  • TL wins vs C9
  • CLG wins vs 100T

After that:

  • IMT must go 1-1 or 2-0

Immortals (4.687% chance of ending below 6th)

Just like 100T, there are 48 scenarios where IMT's Spring split stops next week.

Each of those scenarios depend on the following:

  • TL wins vs FLY
  • DIG wins vs IMT
  • TL wins vs C9
  • EG wins vs IMT

After that:

  • If TSM wins vs 100T

    • 100T must win vs CLG
  • If 100T wins vs TSM

    • It locks IMT out of playoffs

Miracle Runs


Golden Guardians (7.617% chance of tying for 5th or 6th)

GG has 78 scenarios where they make tiebreakers.

Every scenario needs GG to go 2-0

After that:

  • If 100T wins vs TSM

    • If FLY wins vs TL
      • DIG must win vs IMT
      • EG must win vs IMT
    • If TL wins vs FLY
      • DIG must win vs IMT
      • C9 must win vs TL
      • EG must win vs IMT
  • If TSM wins vs 100T

    • If TL wins vs FLY
      • If DIG win vs IMT
        • If C9 win vs TL
          • If EG wins vs IMT, GG are guaranteed tied for 5th or 6th.
          • If IMT wins vs EG, CLG must win vs 100T
        • If TL win vs C9
          • EG must win vs IMT
          • CLG must win vs 100T
      • If IMT win vs DIG
        • C9 must win vs TL
        • CLG must win vs 100T
    • If FLY wins vs TL
      • If DIG wins vs IMT
        • If DIG wins vs TSM
          • If EG wins vs IMT, GG are guaranteed tied for 5th or 6th
          • If IMT wins vs EG, CLG must win vs 100T
        • If TSM wins vs DIG
          • If TL wins vs C9
          • ……..If EG wins vs IMT, GG are guaranteed tied for 5th or 6th
          • ……..If IMT wins vs EG, CLG must win vs 100T
          • If C9 wins vs TL, EG must win vs IMT
      • If IMT wins vs DIG
        • TL must win vs C9
        • CLG must win vs 100T

Dignitas (10.742% chance of tying for 5th or 6th)

DIG has 110 scenarios where they make tiebreakers.

Every scenario needs DIG to go 2-0

After that:

  • If TSM wins vs 100T
    • If FLY wins vs TL
      • If GG wins vs CLG
        • If GG wins vs FLY
          • If EG wins vs IMT, DIG is guaranteed tied for 5th or 6th
          • If IMT wins vs EG, CLG must win vs 100T
        • If FLY wins vs GG
          • If TL wins vs C9
          • ………If EG wins vs IMT, DIG is guaranteed tied for 5th or 6th
          • ………If IMT wins vs EG, CLG must win vs 100T
      • IF CLG wins vs GG
        • If TL wins vs C9
          • If EG wins vs IMT, DIG is guaranteed tied for 5th or 6th
          • If IMT wins vs EG, CLG must win vs 100T
        • If C9 wins vs TL
          • CLG must win vs 100T
    • If TL wins vs FLY
      • If C9 wins vs TL
        • If EG wins vs IMT, DIG is guaranteed tied for 5th or 6th
        • If IMT wins vs EG, CLG must win vs 100T
      • If TL wins vs C9
        • EG must win vs IMT
        • CLG must win vs 100T
  • If 100T wins vs TSM
    • If FLY wins vs TL
      • If GG wins vs CLG
        • If GG wins vs FLY, EG must win vs IMT
        • If FLY wins vs GG, TL must win vs C9 and EG must win vs IMT
      • If CLG wins vs GG
        • TL must win vs C9
        • EG must win vs IMT
    • If TL wins vs FLY
      • C9 must win vs TL
      • EG must win vs IMT

If you believe there are any errors, please don't hesitate to let me know.

If you want to look at all of the remaining scenarios for both LEC and LCS, you can see them here:
edit?usp=sharing - [LCS] The Chances of Each Team Making Playoffs, and How Some Get There and How Some Don't


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1D_kAF992BpK7TfMqC1JbhUl5JodiAyMlpVS24NBlfsM/edit?usp=sharing

EDIT: I'm working on TL's paths to playoffs. Should be up soon!

Source: Original link


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