Alright, Week 7 is done and the dream is still alive. The number that sounded like destiny, Schalke 04 with 04% chances of reaching playoffs, has increased to almost 10% now.
But that math is based on the theory that every single game is a 50/50. Since that’s just theory, let’s take a look on what really needs to happen for the miracle to occur:
5/6: Excel 7-8 Fnatic 7-8
7/8/9: Origen 6-9 Misfits 6-9 Vitality 6-9
10: Schalke 5-10
Wins needed to make the cut
possibly 7 or 9, but most likely 8
7 wins: are only enough if Fnatic and Excel lose everything except their game against each other. Additionally Origen needs to lose their two games that are not vs Excel and Misfits and Vitality need to lose against everyone except their game against each other.
9 wins: are necessary if 2 of the 5 teams go either 2-1 ( Excel/Fnatic ) or 3-0 ( Origen/Misfits/Vitality ) and G2/SK go at least 1-2. There’s quite a number of ways that could happen, but based on recent performances I would argue none of them is very likely
8 wins: Everything else that not leads to 7 or 9 wins… so a lot.
Under the obvious condition that Schalke goes 3-0, really all that needs to happen is that the other games go as you'd expect based on the Standings. No further miracles needed!
Just the lack of upsets from the other contenders. Well, there even can be some, just not too many…
One last thing
Tiebreaker rules. Until now I assumed Schalke wins the potential tiebreaker, however it’s not necessarily that easy. For this split, a tiebreaker is resolved by head to head, if that is not possible it depends on who won the most games in the second half of the split.
That second criteria is like a miracle catalyst for an 8-10 Schalke since no team it could tie with can have 7 wins in that second half, otherwise they wouldn’t tie with the former 1-8 team to begin with. Therefore all that is needed is to be equal in head to head!
The head to head however is where it could get problematic. If Schalke goes 3-0 they will be tied head to head against almost everyone except Rogue ( 0-2 ) , which is irrelevant, and SK ( 0-2 ) , which has a chance of becoming relevant only if they go 0-3 to tie Schalke. That however could prove to be deadly in itself, although getting in reach of an extra playoffs spot seems great at first glance. Fortunately Schalke had a single good game in between the disastrous first half as well, meaning they can potentially win the head to head over Fnatic ( 1-0 ) of all teams.
So why is that stuff important and where is the problem? Multi ties
If Schalke goes 3-0 they automatically win any 6th place two way tiebreaker. In tiebreakers against more than one team however, that is not a guarantee anymore. With SK involved chances are as good as none, with Fnatic on the other sides it looks fantastic. If neither of those two are part of the tiebreaker Schalke will always be +/- 0. Then it fully depends on if the other teams are +/- 0 as well or not. If not, Schalke will only get a middle place in the tiebreaker and in most cases that would mean place 7.
Right now Excel, Fnatic, Origen, Misfits and Vitality have finished 7 of their 10 head to heads already. In 5 of those there is a winner, in 2 it is tied. With 3 more to go this seems to be bad news for Schalke. Fortunately if you take Vitality and Misfits out of the equation as most likely to miss playoffs, it turns out that the only worry remaining is Origen going 2-0 against Excel, but then Excel would need to beat both Fnatic and G2 to still make 8 wins which is a difficult task. Either way, multi ties definitively are a huge risk.
Schalke almost for sure needs to go 3-0
Not more then one team can go 2-1 ( Excel/Fnatic ) or 3-0 ( Origen/Misfits/Vitality )
Getting tied with one team is no problem at all
Getting tied with multiple teams can be problematic
The Odds are surprisingly decent, actually
Source: Original link
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