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NA and EU week 1 vs week 2 winrates in group stage: Data and Visualisation

LeagueofLegends11 - NA and EU week 1 vs week 2 winrates in group stage: Data and Visualisation
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MoZMQSO - NA and EU week 1 vs week 2 winrates in group stage: Data and Visualisation
Graph and data here

Since there is so much talk about EU surging and NA dropping off during week 2 of group stages, I wanted to look into it a little further. The starting year is 2015, since it is the first year using the current format. 2014 was the first with 16 teams/4 groups, but the dynamic was different because week week 1 had all games of groups A/B and week 2 all of C/D.


EU Details

  • EU averages a 42% winrate in week 1 and 65% in week 2.

  • 2015 was EU's only exception by winning 5/9 (55%) in both rounds. They improved every other year.

  • Individual EU teams had better week 2 performances 10/15 times.

  • Fnatic participated 4/5 times.
    They average 33% win rate week 1 (4/12) and 93% in week 2 (14/15).
    They improved for every week 2 and advanced from every group.

  • G2 also participated 4/5 times.
    They average 50% in both weeks (6/12 and 7/14).
    They improved 2/4 times (50%) during week 2, but advanced only when they had worse week 2 performances.

  • Splyce participated 2 times.
    Splyce won 1/6 (17%) in weeks 1 and 4/7 (57%) in weeks 2.
    They improved both times and advanced once.

  • H2K participated 2 times. H2K won 2/6 (33%) in weeks 1 and 5/7 (71%) in weeks 2 – an improvement owing entirely to their 2016 run when they went 4-0 in week 2.
    They advanced the only time they improved in 2016, which was a leap from 1-2 to 4-0.

  • OG, MSF, and VIT participated one time each.
    They won a combined 6/9 (67%) in weeks 1 and 5/5 (50%) in weeks 2.
    Only VIT improved in week 2, OG and MSF worsened but qualified.

  • The EU teams that improved their average winrates are Fnatic (4/4 times), Splyce (2/2), H2K (1/2), and VIT (1/1).

  • The EU teams that did not improve their average winrates are G2 (2/4 times), OG (0/1), MSF (0/1)

  • EU teams won all their week 2 matches in 4/15 cases: 2015 Fnatic, 2016 H2K, 2018 FNC, 2019 FNC.

  • No EU team lost all week 2 matches.


NA Details

  • NA averages 53.4% winrate in week 1 and 26.6% in week 2.

  • 2018 was NA's only exception when they improved from 3/9 (33%) to 6/10 (60%). They dropped off every other year.

  • Individual NA teams had worse week 2 performances 10/15 times.

  • Cloud 9 is the only western team that participated every year.
    They won 9/15 (60%) in weeks 1 and 5/17 (29%) in weeks 2.
    They only improved their second week a single time in 2018 (1-2 -> 3/1) and qualified for knockout stages 3 times (60%).
    They had the biggest possible drop in 2015, going 3-0 during the first week and 0-4 in the second.

  • TSM participated 3 times.
    They won 5/9 (55%) in weeks 1 and 2/10 (20%) in weeks 2.
    They never advanced from groups and always had a worse week 2.

  • TL participated 2 times.
    They won 3/6 (50%) each week. They never advanced from groups, worsening and improving their week 2 once each.

  • CLG participated 2 times.
    They won 4/6 (67%) in weeks 1 and 1/6 (17%) in weeks 2.
    They never advanced and worsened both times.

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  • IM, 100T, and CG participated one time each.
    They won a combined 3/9 (33%) in weeks 1 and 1/10 (10%) in weeks 2.
    None advanced. 100T and CG went the same in both weeks while IM worsened (2-1 -> 0-4).

  • The NA teams that have worse average week 2 winrates are C9 (3/5 times), TSM (3/3), CLG (2/2), IM (1/1)

  • The NA teams that had equal winrates in both weeks are TL (1/2) 100T (0/1) and CG (0/1).
    No NA team has a better average winrate in week 2, however C9 and TL did it in 2018.

  • NA teams lost all their week 2 matches in 5/15 cases: 2015 TSM/C9/CLG, 2017 Immortals, and 2019 Clutch.

  • No NA team won all week 2 matches.


Direct Comparisons

  • EU and NA met in 10 different groups, exactly 2 times every year. 67% of EU and NA teams share a group with the other region.

  • NA had a positive winrate against EU in both weeks until this year, when they went 0-2/0-2.

  • The winrate in direct comparisons is more balanced between the weeks than it is overall:
    Week 1 EU 60% – NA 40% (score 6-4) Week 2 EU 58% – NA 42% (score 7-5)

  • EU won 7/12 week 2 matches, being weaker than the overall week 2 trend of strong EU/weak NA (EU: 58% vs 65%, NA 42% vs 27%)

  • EU advanced from 70% groups they shared with NA, compared to 60% of non-NA groups.

  • NA advanced from 10% groups they shared with EU (C9 2:0 VIT in 2018), compared to 40% of non-EU groups.

  • All EU and NA teams that shared groups in 2016 got knocked out (G2/CLG, SPY/TSM) – the teams that didnt both advaned (H2k and C9).

  • EU and NA only met once in knockout stages when FNC defeated C9 3:0 in 2018.


Conclusion

  • The overall regional trends are indeed strong and occurred in 4/5 tournaments. I

  • Individual teams however only follow it 67% of times.

  • Many of the current top teams are not all that prone to this trend – C9 only follows it 60% of times, G2 and TL only 50%. This is pretty close to a tossup.

  • Fnatic however has followed it every single time.

  • Even though NA has a pretty good group match record against EU (at least before this year), shared groups are more likely to advance EU and kick out NA teams.


Reasons?

I don't feel confident in any definitive explanations, especially not based just on this data. However I suspect that NA teams alack depth and adaptability, leading to them getting beaten once their opponents have gotten used to their style a little. Whereas many EU teams, especially Fnatic, appear to thrive from adaptation and stress. They may however also occasionally benefit from other teams lacking strong motivation (SKT 2019, iG 2018) or having worse nerves (RNG 2019, iG 2015) during the second round.


Corrections

  • Fnatic went 4-1 in week 2 of 2017, not 3-2. (yet to be corrected in the graph)

  • MSF went 2-2 in week 2 of 2017, not 1-2. (yet to be corrected in the graph)

Source: Original link


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