League of Legends

What are your team’s chances at making it to Worlds? A comparison between 4 major leagues

LeagueofLegends3 - What are your team's chances at making it to Worlds? A comparison between 4 major leagues
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Hello, I'm bored as hell as of lately so I decided to gather all the information about each team's chances at getting to Worlds (except the teams that are already eliminated).

LPL:

LPL is probably the most interesting of all 4 big leagues sice there the most possibilities as 8 teams are still in contention for Worlds, only LCS has the same number of teams involved but it's hard to expect much from bottom tier teams. Note that one of TES and JDG will 100% make it to Worlds as in all but one scenario one of these teams automatically qualifies via points or by winning the split. The one scenario in which it doesn't happen has both teams starting the gauntlet as number 1 and 2 seeds, meaning they face each other in a bo5 for a direct qualification.

Before we start, here's the number of points each team earned in the spring split, and below is the number each place earns in summer playoffs:

JDG: 60

TES: 40

FPX: 30

IG: 20

WE: 10

Here are the points for the summer split:

2 – 90

3 – 70

4 – 40

5 – 20

6 – 10

But enough of that, let's go straight to the teams.

JDG:

Thanks to having 60 points from winning spring, JDG have the highest chances of making it to Worlds. They cannot end lower than 4th thanks to placing 2nd in the regular split, which means at worst they'll have 100 championship points. Here are all the scenarios in which JDG qualifiy to Worlds without having to play in the gauntlet:

1 – win the split

2 – place 2nd

3 – place 3rd, IG wins the split

4 – place 3rd, V5/SN wins the split, IG 2nd

5 – place 3rd, LGD/WE wins the split

6 – place 3rd, V5/SN wins the split, WE/LGD 2nd

7 – place 3rd, TES wins the split

8 – place 4th, TES wins the split, LGD 2nd

TES:

With 40 points from spring, TES is also very likely to make it to Worlds. Just like JDG, they will at worst finish at 4th place and have 80 points combined. Here's how they'll make it without going to the gauntlet:

1 – win the split

2 – place 2nd

3 – place 3rd, JDG wins the split

4 – place 3rd, V5/SN win the split, LGD/WE 2nd

5 – place 3rd, LGD/WE win the split, V5/SN 2nd

6 – place 3rd, IG wins the split

IG:

IG's chances are pretty decent despite having only 20 points from spring. V5 did them quite a favour by eliminating FPX today. Despite that, there are only 3 scenarios in which IG avoids the gauntlet:

1 – win the split

2 – place 2nd, TES wins the split, JDG 4th

3 – place 2nd, V5/SN win the split, TES 3rd, JDG 4th

WE:

Team WE would have a slightly more realistic shot at making it to Worlds directly if they were on V5's side of the bracket. The 10 points they have from spring would give them a small, but noticeable advantage over others. There are 2 possible scenarios for WE to qualify without the gauntlet:

1 – win the split

2 – place 2nd, TES wins the split, JDG 4th

V5/SN:

Both teams need the exact same things to happen in order to qualify directly:

1 – win the split

2 – place 2nd, JDG wins the split, TES 4th

LGD:

Sadly, for LGD the only way to avoid the gauntlet is to win the split because even if they beat JDG in semi finals and then JDG lose the 3rd place match, they'll have 10 points more than LGD.

Gauntlet:

Four teams (JDG, TES, IG, FPX) are guaranteed to have a spot here if they fail to qualify directly. As for others, the winner of V5 vs SN match is guaranteed a spot, while the loser has to hope for IG to beat WE or LGD (I think so, sadly there's no information how are 5th and 6th spot determined, so I assume it depends on a team's placement in the regular split. If someone has an info as to how these two places are determined, please let me know). WE and LGD need to make semis if they want to get there.

LEC:

In the LEC the situation is very simple. The championship points determined the seeding in summer playoffs, and it stands as follows:

RGE – #1 seeding

G2 – #2 seeding

MAD – #3 seeding

FNC – #4 seeding

SK – #5 seeding

S04 – #6 seeding

Because of how the brackets look like, Rogue is the first team to qualify for Worlds 2020 as they can't finish playoffs lower than 4th. How does it look like for other teams then?

G2:

Despite having a rather disappointing regular split and struggling for many weeks, G2 got 3rd place and thus they overtook MAD in championship points. In the end it doesn't matter as the two teams play each other in the first round anyways though. G2's path to Worlds is very easy, but it's not a given. The 3 scenarios in which G2 goes to Worlds are as follows:

1 – beat MAD in the first round

2 – lose to MAD but RGE wins vs FNC

3 – lose to MAD, FNC wins vs RGE, G2 beats the winner of S04 vs SK

MAD:

Mad Lions' scenarios are identical to G2, but in their case it's MAD that has to come out victorious.

FNC:

Even though they had an underwhelming split, Fnatic, partially thanks to MSF's horrible baron throws, managed to claw their way to 4th place and thus got a spot in the winner's bracket. If they beat Rogue, they are in. If they lose, they need to beat the winner of S04 vs SK match.

S04/SK:

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As simple as it gets: beat your round 1 and 2 opponents and you're in. Lose and you're out without a chance for a rematch. Both teams will most likely cheer for Rogue in their match against Fnatic, because FNC's victory means S04/SK will have to face G2 or MAD in round 2.

LCK:

The LCK scenarios are much more loose now since the regular split hasn't finished yet. We know the top 4 but we don't know the exact positions yet, and there's still a chance for SB and KT to overtake Afreeca as the number 5 team. Just like in the LPL, the championship points still matter a lot so here's how it looks like:

Points earned in spring:

T1 – 90

Gen.G – 70

DRX – 50

DWG – 30

KT – 10

Points available in summer:

2 – 90

3 – 70

4 – 40

5 – 20

T1:

Only a disaster could prevent T1 from making it to Worlds. There's even one scenario in which they end up 5th and still qualify. Here are all of them:

1 – win the split

2 – finish 2nd

3 – finish 3rd, Gen.G wins the split

4 – finish 3rd, DRX wins the split, Gen.G 4th, DWG 2nd

5 – finish 3rd, DWG wins the split, DRX 2nd

6 – finish 4th, Gen.G wins the split, DWG 2nd, DRX 3rd

7 – finish 4th, AFS/KT/SB win the split, DWG 2nd, DRX 3rd

8 – finish 5th, Gen.G wins the split, KT/AFS/SB 2nd, DWG 3rd, DRX 4th

9 – finish 3rd, AFS/KT/SB win the split, DRX/DWG 2nd

Gen.G:

The 70 points from spring put Gen.G in a great position to directly qualify. If one of the following things happen, Gen.G fans can celebrate:

1 – win the split

2 – finish 2nd

3 – finish 3rd, T1/DRX wins the split, DWG 2nd

4 – finish 3rd, DWG/DRX/T1 wins the split, SB/AFS/KT 2nd

5 – finish 3rd, SB/AFS/KT win the split, DWG 2nd

6 – finish 4th, T1 wins the split, SB/AFS/KT 2nd, DWG 3rd

7 – finish 4th, DRX wins the split, SB/AFS/KT 2nd, DWG 3rd, T1 5th

DRX:

Despite their dominant form in summer, DRX making Worlds is still a question mark. Their chances are high, but not as high as the two teams mentioned above. Here's what needs to happen for them to directly qualify:

1 – win the split

2 – finish 2nd, T1 4th/5th

3 – finish 3rd, T1 win the split, DWG/SB/KT/AFS 2nd

4 – finish 3rd, Gen.G win the split, DWG/SB/KT/AFS 2nd, T1 5th

5 – finish 3rd, DWG win the split, SB/KT/AFS 2nd, Gen.G 4th, T1 5th

DWG:

The 4th place finish in spring really hurts DWG's chances. Similarly to DRX, their great form could mean nothing in the end as there are only 4 scenarios in which DWG avoids the gauntlet:

1 – win the split

2 – finish 2nd, T1 win the split, Gen.G 4th/5th

3 – finish 2nd, Gen.G win the split, T1 5th

4 – finish 3rd, T1 win the split, AFS/SB 2nd, DRX 4th, Gen.G 5th

KT:

There are two dank timelines in which KT goes to Worlds as the 1st or 2nd seed. That is, if they make it to the summer playoffs in the first place. In order to do that they need to either win the split or hope for a following scenario: finish 2nd, T1 wins the split, Gen.G 5th, DRX 4th, DWG 3rd. The 10 points from spring can prove to be very important if the dank run somehow gets completed.

SB/AFS:

The only way for these two to qualify is to win the split. Otherwise they need to hope for a miracle gauntlet run.

Gauntlet:

If I'm wrong please correct me, but I believe that, except T1, DWG, DRX and Gen.G, KT is also already qualified for the gauntlet thanks to finishing 5th in spring. Afaik if they make it to playoffs in summer as well, we'll only see 3 teams in the gauntlet, but if AF/SB get the spot they'll also be here. Either way, unless something crazy happens, KT and AF/SB will start as the lowest seed.

LCS:

LCS format is very similar to the LEC one, but for some reasons there are 8 teams.

TL/C9:

TL and C9 will face one of TSM, FLY, EG or GG in the round 2 of the winner's bracket. If they win, they automatically qualify for Worlds. If they lose however, they drop to the loser's bracket and need to come out victorious against their round 2 and 3 opponents. Note that if both C9 and TL lose their round 2 winner's bracket matches, only one of them will have a chance at making it to Worlds as only one team from the loser's bracket can advance to the top 3.

TSM/FLY/EG/GG:

These teams have the exact same path, except there's one more round to play. They need to beat their round 1 winner's bracket opponent and then beat TL or C9. If they lose in round 2 of the winner's bracket, see above as they follow TL and C9's steps in case of a loss. If they lose in round 1 of the winner's bracket, they face one of DIG or 100T in round 1 of the loser's bracket and need to win 3 bo5's from that point.

DIG/100T:

They have by far the toughest way as they can't lose a single bo5 since it means elimination in their case. One of them will 100% not make it as even if both teams go through rounds 1 and 2, they will face each other in round 3. But, no matter what happens and how these two perform, we should already be thankful for them making it over CLG so we don't have to watch them anymore.

Let me know if I didn't get something wrong and which teams have, in your opinion, the best chance at making it to Worlds, be it directly or through the gauntlet.

Source: Original link


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