Sea of Thieves

Shark Research

Sea of Thieves 4 - Shark Research

combing through the Reddit and all the rumors I decided to pile on the data and for sure try to figure out the conditions in-game to cause the spawn of the megs and how it affects your crew.

first and foremost this is a theory continuing to be researched but it has been leading to promising results and maybe getting more boats trying this could lead to more Shroud-Ghost sightings.

  • Theory One: it is all luck and RNG (enough said we all know this it's everywhere in the game)
  • Theory Two: Spawn Rotation/Percentage

my crew has been monitoring the megs that we come across in a session and this theory is sound. the idea is to take on every meg that spawns on us and in doing so we have been seeing decreased times that the defeated meg has been spawning.

  • conditions:
    • server migration is listed as an error
      • there is enough evidence that when you migrate servers all your "crew" triggers have been reset. which is why when you migrate you could end up facing a threat instantly
      • (Kracken>server migration>Kracken again)
      • so Theory two can only work as long as you stay within a single server and not migrate.
    • Glitched servers lists as an error
      • a server where a variable is erroring out causing abnormal behaviors will throw off all data. with that being said anything funny in the server can cause the same shark to spawn over and over again.
      • (ship battles with no skellys on them) *prevous to spoils update*
      • constant spawning barrels with no items
      • massive ping spikes causing error data
    • Despawning Meg – listed as "escaped"
      • when you have a meg spawn on you and you are too close to an island that causes it to back off.
      • you do have a small window to re-engage but chances are it will physically despawn forcing you to re-trigger the shark
      • this officially does not change the math until you have defeated said shark and probably why you can't "re-roll" a shark as the same one will spawn on you
    • Spawn Vs Found – Found not listed
      • other spawned sharks will only affect the crew that it spawned on. so fighting a shark that spawned on another ship only helps that ship's percentage, not your crew's.
  • data
    • (single session / No server migration errors)
      • session one: (blu)-escaped / (blu)-defeat / (bla)-defeat
      • session two: (bla)-defeat / (blu)-defeat / (pur) defeat
      • session three: (blu) defeat / (pur)-defeat / (bla) defeat
      • session four: (blu)-escaped / (blu) esc / (blu) defeat / (pur) defeat / (yel) defeat / (bla) defeat / (blu) defeat
Read:  I must confess...

With the logic that the megs will have less likely chance to spawn if it been defeated within the session is not only sound but everyone I came across in discord supports Theory Two

  • now for the hypothetical let's just say that each meg has an equal chance of spawning
    • (blu) 20% (bla) 20% (yel) 20% (pur) 20% (whi) 20%+fog
      • "Rumor" (white) May Have a condition that you need to be near or within Fog creating a trigger (two twitch videos reviewed shows that the spawn was within fog areas…. more research needed)
      • every time you defeat a meg the Percentage is reduced by 10% on that meg
      • And have increased chances of seeing a different meg next time around.
    • (blu) 10% (bla) 22.5% (yel) 22.5% (pur) 22.5% (whi) 22.5%+fog
    • (blu) 12.5% (bla) 12.5% (yel) 25% (pur) 25% (whi) 25%+fog
    • (blu) 15% (bla) 15% (yel) 15% (pur) 27.5% (whi) 27.5%+fog
      • all the defeated points are adjusted into the other megs

The math suggests that if you attack all megs that come your way and travel into the fog, the theory suggests that you should have an increased chance at seeing this white shark. mind you the numbers above is hypothetical and the white shark could start with a measly 2% (the rest at 24.5%) at start meaning you may need to kill 8 sharks just to get it into a decent spawn chance.

TLDR: kill every shark to increase your chances of spawning the white.

if you think this theory has merit then share away. or if you wish to share your data and info we may be able to create the correct conditions to spawn this shark more accurately.

then again everything could just be RNG and we all just want to hunt down the white whale.

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