Aligulac Predictions for Group D tonight! (and for Super Tournament)

starcraft 9 - Aligulac Predictions for Group D tonight! (and for Super Tournament)

Tonight's Group D is a exciting, strong group with Dark, Innovation, Stats, and Patience. I used
aligulac - Aligulac Predictions for Group D tonight! (and for Super Tournament)Aligulac to predict the games and results.

Match Match Winner
Dark vs Patience Dark
Innovation vs Stats Innovation
Dark vs Innovation Dark
Stats vs Patience Stats
Stats vs Innovation Innovation

Aligulac predicts Dark vs Patience and Innovation vs Stats having Dark & Innovation win those games, with Dark advancing out of the group in 1st place 2-0. Stats & Patience then duke it out in the loser's match, with Stats being victorious. Stats then faces innovation again in the decider match, with innovation coming out on top. Here are the links for the Group D matches being predicted by Aligulac.

Will these predictions hold true to deny the 7/8 protoss many are dreading? We'll see tonight, I'm looking forward to the games! Stats fighting!

I made a post relating to PvT balance and GSL Super Tournament and Season 2, regarding whether PvT was going towards the favored players or not. As a follow up to that post, I have used aligulac's prediction feature to predict the matches to see who aligulac thinks would have won. Keep in mind that this is aligulac's prediction, which is not perfectly reliable, though it is an excellent resource. Also keep in mind that the prediction feature already includes the matches which were played during super tournament, and during GSL season 2, so this is skewed some amount.

Here is a table with the qualifier PvT matches.

Match Favorite Actual Winner Against Prediction?
Stats vs Alive 68.33% Stats Stats No
MC vs Alive 77.61% aLive aLive No
Stats vs Alive (again) 68.33% Stats Stats No
Zest vs Cure 61.62% Zest Zest No
herO vs TOP 94.25% herO herO No
KeeN vs arai 96.71% keen keen No
dear vs fantasy 76.76% dear dear No
dear vs keen 79.22% dear dear No
fantasy vs arai 97.18% fantasy fantasy No
sOs vs kas 92.30% sOs sOs No
sOs vs innovation 55.88% sOs sOs No
PartinG vs innovation 64.05% innovation PartinG Yes
Trust vs Special 56.77% special trust Yes
creator vs Dream 59.03% creator creator No
Trust vs GuMiho 67.67% GuMiho Trust Yes
GuMiho vs Creator 66.54% GuMiho GuMiho No
Trust vs Dream 57.46% Trust Trust No
Hurricane vs brat_ok 94.19% Hurricane Hurricane No
Patience vs Bunny 50.51% Bunny (50-50) Patience No Favorite
Hurricane vs TY 55.26% TY Hurricane Yes
Hurricane vs TY (again) 55.26% TY Hurricane Yes

5 matches standout as going against the prediction. Though Trust beats GuMiho, GuMiho still gets out of the qualifiers.

Here is a table with the actual matches (PvT only).

Match Favorite Actual Winner Against Prediction?
Maru vs Stats 64.24% Maru Stats Yes
GuMiho vs Stats 50.09% Stats (50-50) GuMiho No Favorite
GuMiho vs PartinG 60.05% GuMiho GuMiho No
GuMiho vs Classic 64.67% Classic Classic No

This gives 5 matches from the qualifiers and 1 match from the actual matches for a total of 6 matches which did not go as Aligulac predicted. Keep in mind that these predictions were made with the real matches played in the qualifier/tournament being included, so the prediction IS skewed. How much it is skewed, I cannot tell. These tables are NOT to show PvT balance, simply to assess whether favored terran players are losing matches against protoss players. In super tournament, qualifiers & matches, there were 6 total matches which a favored terran player lost.

Aligulac is a fantastic website and resource. I have nothing but gratitude for those who run the site, and I suggest you check it out.

Source: Original link

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