Looking at map win rates in TvP, is it a race design or map design issue?

starcraft 4 - Looking at map win rates in TvP, is it a race design or map design issue?

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To preface this, I will say that I am a ~5500 mmr protoss player, just getting my potential biases out of the way.

Hey r/starcraft,

I was poking around recent tournaments for matchup win rates, and I found something pretty interesting that I think warrant’s discussion. Map Balance. I had a feeling that recently the map pool was very strong for protoss against terran, so I decided to take a look at the win rates. I was curious, was the map pool as a whole imbalanced, or was it a few select maps damaging the matchup?

I decided to look at three recent premier tournaments:

  • GSL 2019 Season 1

  • GSL Super Tournament

  • IEM Katowice – Offline only

I figured that these being some of the most recent tournaments, and most densely populated with top players would give the best insight on the highest level of PvT

Win Rates

Here is the aggregate data of the tournaments:

MapProtoss win%Win – Loss
Automaton72.22%13 – 5
Cyber Forest52%13 – 12
Kairos Junction62.16%23 – 14
King’s Cove45.45%10 – 12
New Repugnancy36.36%4 – 7
Port Alexander50%12 – 12
Year Zero33.33%2 – 4

I am not here to make any large balance claims, nor say what the solution is. However here are a few interesting things from the data:

  • Protoss overall win rate is 53.85% (77 – 66)

  • The most imbalanced map with a decent sample size, is Automaton (Year Zero is lacking on data)

  • If you remove automaton from the pool, the win rate is 51.2% (64 – 61)

Rush Distance

Additionally, I looked at map rush distance, main base to main base, Here is the data, in number of seconds it takes a worker to cross the map

MapTime in seconds
Cyber Forest42
Karios Junction40
King’s Cove45
New Repugnancy40
Port Alexander44
Year Zero49

Average: 44.1 seconds

Now let’s rank them based on rush distance and include win rate data

MapTime In SecondsProtoss win %
Karios Junction40 sec62.16%
New Repugnancy40 sec36.36%
Cyber Forest42 sec52%
Port Alexander44 sec50%
King’s Cove45 sec45.45%
Year Zero49 sec33.33%
Automaton50 sec72.22%

The sweet spot seems to be around 44 seconds for rush distance. The larger deviation from this time, the more extreme the win rates get. Interestingly Both races have a short map that favors them, and a long map that favors them (though, I will state again, year zero has very little data)

Final Thoughts

I don't have any solid conclusion for this data. I am just hoping it sparks an interesting discussion. To me, the numbers seem to show that there is a fairly well balanced match-up that is being obscured mainly by Automaton. Karios Junction might need to be looked at.

What do you think? Is PvT a balance problem? A map problem? Does anybody have any good data to add to the discussion? I would love to get some other people’s input

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