Looking at map win rates in TvP, is it a race design or map design issue?

starcraft 4 - Looking at map win rates in TvP, is it a race design or map design issue?

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To preface this, I will say that I am a ~5500 mmr protoss player, just getting my potential biases out of the way.

Hey r/starcraft,

I was poking around recent tournaments for matchup win rates, and I found something pretty interesting that I think warrant’s discussion. Map Balance. I had a feeling that recently the map pool was very strong for protoss against terran, so I decided to take a look at the win rates. I was curious, was the map pool as a whole imbalanced, or was it a few select maps damaging the matchup?

I decided to look at three recent premier tournaments:

  • GSL 2019 Season 1

  • GSL Super Tournament

  • IEM Katowice – Offline only

I figured that these being some of the most recent tournaments, and most densely populated with top players would give the best insight on the highest level of PvT

Win Rates

Here is the aggregate data of the tournaments:

Map Protoss win% Win – Loss
Automaton 72.22% 13 – 5
Cyber Forest 52% 13 – 12
Kairos Junction 62.16% 23 – 14
King’s Cove 45.45% 10 – 12
New Repugnancy 36.36% 4 – 7
Port Alexander 50% 12 – 12
Year Zero 33.33% 2 – 4

I am not here to make any large balance claims, nor say what the solution is. However here are a few interesting things from the data:

  • Protoss overall win rate is 53.85% (77 – 66)

  • The most imbalanced map with a decent sample size, is Automaton (Year Zero is lacking on data)

  • If you remove automaton from the pool, the win rate is 51.2% (64 – 61)

Rush Distance

Additionally, I looked at map rush distance, main base to main base, Here is the data, in number of seconds it takes a worker to cross the map

Map Time in seconds
Automaton 50
Cyber Forest 42
Karios Junction 40
King’s Cove 45
New Repugnancy 40
Port Alexander 44
Year Zero 49
Read:  GSL Code S 2019 S2 | Ro16 | Group D | Quick Recap

Average: 44.1 seconds

Now let’s rank them based on rush distance and include win rate data

Map Time In Seconds Protoss win %
Karios Junction 40 sec 62.16%
New Repugnancy 40 sec 36.36%
Cyber Forest 42 sec 52%
Port Alexander 44 sec 50%
King’s Cove 45 sec 45.45%
Year Zero 49 sec 33.33%
Automaton 50 sec 72.22%

The sweet spot seems to be around 44 seconds for rush distance. The larger deviation from this time, the more extreme the win rates get. Interestingly Both races have a short map that favors them, and a long map that favors them (though, I will state again, year zero has very little data)

Final Thoughts

I don't have any solid conclusion for this data. I am just hoping it sparks an interesting discussion. To me, the numbers seem to show that there is a fairly well balanced match-up that is being obscured mainly by Automaton. Karios Junction might need to be looked at.

What do you think? Is PvT a balance problem? A map problem? Does anybody have any good data to add to the discussion? I would love to get some other people’s input

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