Something is not right with the data from the the sc2replaystats

starcraft 7 - Something is not right with the data from the the sc2replaystats

I thought about posting this in that thread, but I figured that this would just get lost amongst all the posts that are using the data to justify racial imbalances. This is intended as a message for everybody to calm the fuck down and look at the actual evidence. I know everybody has a hard on for stats driven science, but you really need to know that a prerequisite is to prove that your model is saying what you think it is saying.

I'm just going to point out these other matchups:





For me, mirror matchups are the ultimate proof of pure skill, not racial imbalance. Technically, speaking they should look roughly like 50:50 if we are to say that these any win percentage imbalance from Player 1 to Player 2 proves racial imbalance. However, it does not. If you click on any one of thse its even more imbalanced: roughly 60:40 for each or even higher, except curiously TVT grandmaster which is the reversed, for unknown reasons. For me, there is no clear reason why ZVZ imbalance should be regarded any differently than PVT imbalance. Therefore, I'm not entirely sold that this can be used to prove PVT is imbalanced.

I can guess a couple of ways why this is the case:

  1. I read that these percentages are based off people submitting replays: People submitting replays are inherently biased, they aren't submitted for the purposes of justifying racial imbalance
  2. Player 1 is more likely to be the higher ranked player maybe? I have no idea how matchmaking works. Based on the mirror matchups findings, this seems to be the case.
  3. This is an error that only happens with mirror matchups specific to the way the data is arranged. i could accept that, but I can't prove that. I have no idea how Team 1 vs Team 2 is arranged.
  4. The sc2 replaystats algorithm is stuffed up and is not working as intended.

I guess what I'm trying to say is that using sc2replaystats may be no better than us pointing out observed difficulties in matchups, there are too many questions right now with how they collated the information to say its definitive unfortunately.

I'm open to anybody who is willing to do a deep dive into this and prove me wrong and that this statistical model can be used to look at matchups.

Full disclosure: I think PVT is actually imbalanced, lol.

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