The Elder Scrolls

Analysis of Expected Content and Card-Buying Strategy for Moons of Elsweyr

TheElderScrolls7 - Analysis of Expected Content and Card-Buying Strategy for Moons of Elsweyr
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TL;DR If the numbers pan out like I expect them to, I will buy 30 Moons of Elsweyr packs with gold and that’ll be it. The content of pre-made decks, if indeed they are available at release, may reduce the number of packs you need to buy.

According to the information we have, 75 cards will make up this latest expansion (MoE). So as a budget player (not entirely F2P but I do spend slightly where there is good value – maybe the equivalent of $5 a month), I ask myself how I should handle my buying strategy and figured I’d also share with you.

First assumption made: when they say 75 cards, I take it to mean they essentially refer to playsets. 1 playset = 3 identical cards or 1 unique legendary, depending on the case. Compared to Alliance War (AW), MoE is a smaller expansion because AW had 104 cards (aka. playsets).

I also looked at the expected breakdown of common, rare, epic, legendary and unique legendary cards, based on the three previous pack expansions: Skyrim, Morrowind and Alliance War. Here’s the average of what I’ve found:

Common: 37%

Rare: 29%

Epic: 19%

Legendary: 15% (about half are unique legendaries)

Total: 100%

This means that MoE’s card breakdown should go something like this:

Common: 28 x 3 = 84 cards

Rare: 22 x 3 = 66 cards

Epic: 14 x 3 = 42 cards

Legendary: (6 x 1) + (5 x 3) = 21 cards (maybe 1 unique per colour and for neutral)

Total: 213 cards

Again, when doing a similar breakdown, it’s clear MoE is a smaller expansion than AW, which has 286 cards. Or in other words, MoE is only 75% as large as AW.

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When AW was released, I had the impression that the pre-purchase of 50 packs was too much and you’d end up running into diminishing returns, where 5/6 cards in each additional pack would get soul trapped. For an F2P or budget player such as myself, that’s generally undesirable. I ended up buying 40 packs which was just right for me: I got all the commons, three quarters of the rares, about a third of the epics and 2-3 legendaries. After the 40th pack, 4/6 cards were duplicates (link: https://www.reddit.com/r/elderscrollslegends/comments/bdwpas/some_different_pack_stats_for_those_that_didnt/)

After the initial purchase, I earned an additional 20 AW packs or so, from the daily login rewards or Versus Arena. For context, I play an hour a day on weekdays and when I do Versus Arena, I get a 7-wins run about 1 out of 4 tries. Those packs got me an additional 30 cards I didn’t have when AW released. For me, this was just right.

So how many MoE packs should you buy? For me, it’ll be 30 packs based on 213 (MoE) divided by 286 (AW) = about 75% and 30 packs is 75% of the 40 I bought for AW.

There is a caveat: I’ve read (and not seen substantiated yet) that pre-made decks will be available at the release of MoE. Depending on their content, it may be worthwhile to buy those first (especially for the legendaries) and then buy a reduced number of packs afterwards.

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