This is based on more than 143,000 rounds from 25,000+ Ranked matches I’ve analysed. All these matches were played in the last two months. I have access to this dataset as the developer of the
I’ve been diving through this dataset, looking for some tasty nuggets of information. And I have found some interesting stuff that I thought I’d share! Last week I shared an analysis on 'Orange vs Blue starting team', which you can find here.
This week I wanted to share some information regarding spawnpeeking. A more in-depth description of the analysis, with additional data, can be found in
the in-depth article.
Defining Spawnkills and Spawnfails
For this analysis, I made the following definitions. These are just my own invention, you may have other opinions:
- I considered any kills within the first 18 seconds of the Action Phase as a spawn-related kill.
- A spawnkill is a kill a defender makes on an attacker.
- A spawnfail is when a defender is killed by an attacker, also known as an ‘early pick’.
- A spawndeath is any death in the first 18 seconds, on either side.
A note on the graphs
The graphs in this article deal with very small numbers. Please keep in mind the Y-axis! I hoped to strike a balance between readability of the graph, and representation that the events that the bar graphs describe are not present in the majority of Ranked rounds.
How prevalent is Spawnpeeking?
My data seems to suggest that the average Siege player is likely to die within the first 18 seconds of the Action Phase in approximately 0.66% of rounds. Your rank does not appear to have any statistically significant effect on the prevalence of spawnpeeking. Whether you're a Copper or Platinum player, you're almost just as likely to get a spawnkill or die by it. (Not enough data for Diamond/Champion.)
Experiencing any sort of spawnpeeking personally (doing it and succeeding or failing, or dying to it or getting an early pick as an attacker) occurs in ±2.14% of rounds for each average player.
Note that, with 5 players on each team, the chance of anyone dying at the start of any particular round, is much higher.
Spawnpeeking per Map
Here’s a graph of every Ranked map, and the prevalence of spawnkills/spawnfails.
With the dataset split into twelve maps, a lot of data is needed to make any hard conclusions. However, as you can see, Bank appears to be the most dangerous Ranked map in terms of spawnpeeking, with an average player spawndeath event occurring in 3.11% of rounds. The safest map looks to be the reworked Theme Park, which has spawndeath events in only 1.40% of rounds.
It’s interesting to try and determine whether it is worth it for Defence to actually attempt a spawnpeek on any particular map. Of course, the preferred outcome is to get a ‘free’ kill early on. The map that comes closest is Theme Park, where Defenders had 1.75x more spawnkills than Attackers. Consulate and Chalet are also contenders, with ±1.5x more spawnkills than spawnfails. However, the dataset is not large enough to verify this holds true overall with a statistically significant amount of certainty. More data is required to determine this.
The dataset is not (yet) big enough to make statistically significant conclusions on individual Spawnpoints, but I still thought it’d be fun to show the top 5 most dangerous Spawnpoints, as seen in the 22,278 tracked rounds that contained spawnpoint data:
|Map||Spawn||Spawnkilled in % of Rounds|
I personally expected Kanal Sailboats to have the top spot, but it’s actually near the very bottom!
In total I regret to say that, with the exception of some spawnpoints (like Clubhouse: Construction Site and all Bank: Alley Access), you’ll probably come out on top as a defender, if you do decide to spawnpeek.
However, a very important thing to note here is that the data as tracked only takes into account kills and deaths in the first 18 seconds. There is much more going on. Any spawnpeek attempt that does not pan out for the defenders (no kill/death) is likely an advantage to the attackers. They can pin or pinch the defender and kill him easily afterwards.
Thanks for reading! Stay tuned for some more tidbits of information that I’m pulling from the dataset. Next topic: Overtime. If you have any questions or comments, or other burning questions you think the dataset might be able to help answer, feel free to ask them below!
Source: Original link
© Post "Spawnpeeking: 143,000+ Ranked rounds analysed" for game Tom Clancy’s Rainbow Six Siege.
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