In case anyone didn't know yet, shotguns now use a different formula than before, to determine what their status chance is.
It used to be that the status chance shown in the arsenal (before adding multishot) was the chance that any pellet procs status. This jumped up to all pellets proccing status effects at 100%, due to how statistics work. (For the interested: in order to guarantee at least one proc regardless of what pellet is flying, you have to guarantee that all pellets apply a proc, so that's where the 100% dip came from.)
Now after the patch, shotguns use a formula of SC*3/PC where SC is the old status chance from the arsenal and PC is the pellet count. So far so good, some shotguns got nerfed a bit, but overall this still works fine with the Exergis or Kohm hitting 100% status easily still, right?
Well, not quite. Weapons like the Arca Plasmor (1 pellet, but I think no change to status chance), Exergis (3 pellets, so no change actually), and Kohm (1 pellet default, so a 3x buff) only profited from the buff, right? Alright, let's take a look at our favourite top dog, the Tigris. Normal Tigris had a status chance of 28% over 5 pellets, now changed to 16.8% per pellet. Sancti Tigris also used to have a 28% status chance over a spread of 6 pellets, resulting in a status chance of 14% per pellet. And the Tigris Prime used to have 30% over 8 pellets, resulting in a status chance of 11.3% per pellet now.
THE TIGRIS PRIME HAS A LOWER STATUS CHANCE PER PELLET THAN THE NORMAL TIGRIS BY ALMOST 30% (relatively speaking). Unless DE changed how probability works in Warframe (don't recall that from the devstream, correct me if I'm wrong), the Tigris Prime has a chance of 0.1138 (0.00000000266 or 0.00000266%) of proccing all its status procs, which is lower than the normal Tigris (0.1685 or 0.00134%) – or at least that's what's being communicated. Granted for the normal Tigris it's only 5 procs per shot, but with multishot you can easily bump that up to 8 pellets, which lets you still have a higher status chance than the Tigris Prime.
For reference, my fully modded Sancti Tigris with 2x 60/60 mods and a 72% riven hits 41% status per pellet at 16.8 pellets, whereas my Tigris Prime (3x 60/60 mods and 72% riven) hits 39% over 17.6 pellets. On average, my Sancti Tigris with fewer status mods and (roughly) the same amount of multishot should proc more consistent status effects than my Tigris Prime. Even more so, since I can leave out the Heat Proc in favour of it having more Viral and Slash procs more consistently.
Going into some proper testing here to try and confirm what I suspect. For the following I equipped the following mods on both my Sancti Tigris and Tigris Prime: Hell's Chamber, Shotgun Savvy, Vigilante Armaments and my Tigris Visidex. The resulting stats are: 16.8 multishot, 36.8% status pp (Sancti); 22.4 multishot, 28.9% status pp (Prime). From there I spawned in 20 lvl 155 gunner eximus units and started blasting, recording the amount of status procs on a spreadsheet. I shot 64 times each (to get a rough estimate on how much variation there is). Average Procs TigrisP: 12.75385 (Median 12) Average Procs STigris: 12.78125 (Median 13)
Now, from this testing, it seems that both the TigrisP and Sancti Tigris have roughly the same amount of average procs, with the Sancti Tigris hitting the mid-range (11-15) way more consistently than the Tigris Prime. A small graph for those who appreciate graphs (Ninjaedit: it would seem my laptop which I used for the graph has a different colourscheme than my PC screen, so the "blue" graph line might or might not be "black" actually.)
Conclusion of my little rant: It seems that the way shotgun status works now is super inconsistent for our lovely go-to top-tier shredders named Tigris. The Tigris Prime has around 30% more multishot than the Sancti Tigris, which in turn has around 30% more status chance, making it that these two weapons are now practically the same – albeit that the Sancti Tigris can hit the same status chance with 1 combined element, whereas the Tigris Prime needs to add 2 elements to the pool (3x 60/60 mods) with my riven. Without the Riven the Sancti Tigris would be the only one of the two where I'd recommend running Viral/Fire, since the Tigris Prime loses out on a BUNCH of status chance when leaving out a mod compared to the STigris. The only advantage Tigris Prime has as of now is that it has significantly higher base damage (again, roughly 30%) meaning that the few Slash procs you do get compared to the Sancti hit a bunch harder at least.
TL;DR: After some testing, it would seem that the Sancti Tigris is now indeed better at applying status effects than the Tigris Prime, especially if you're trying to do it consistently.
(PS: If anyone who read this could drop a like or comment to give this post a little more traction, that'd be very much appreciated; there's roughly 1.5h of work in the testing alone, since lining up to the same distance from target every shot is a pain in the ass.)
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© Post "“Tigris line is broken now” (Warning: long post and a little maths ahead)" for game Warframe.
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