All the data and all the explanations are given in the table. In short, it would take about 4100 hours for a very good player to get all red items in a best-case scenario, and 2-3 times more (8200-12300) hours for an average player. Yes, there is a worst-case scenario. The exact red items droprates are unknown, but there are 2 numbers: one number comes from data mining, another from a cheater opening 3k chests. The optimistic number is based on the data-mined value. The statistical value is about 3 times worse, and the evaluated farm time is 14670 for top players, and 29340-44010 hours for average ones. I don't know which number is correct, it can be any of them.
Also after playing for some time and after reading the forum, most noticeably this topic, I am not sure any more that 2-3 times is a realistic multiplier. It might be 5, 10 or even 20 (5 or 6 seems more accurate). But using a multiplier of 3 we are guaranteed to not exceed the actual grind time. And a big multiplier is somewhat irrelevant, since then Champion becomes a better alternative. One more important thing: these are average numbers. They might differ for each individual player from 2k hours to 8k hours (compared to 4k), and this deviation is based purely on luck, a player can not affect it in any way.
In 1.0.5 the devs said to DRASTICALLY increase droprates for red items, but without the actual numbers this data is worthless. "Drastically" could mean anything from a 5% increase to a 500% increase. Btw even a 500% increase is not enough, especially for bad numbers.
Now let me explain the reasoning behind writing this post. After playing for 200 hundred hours and realizing, that getting red items will take me forever, I dropped the game. After patch 1.0.5 I came back, hoping the problem to be fixed, but it turned out to still persist. So I calculated the time it would take me to get all the loot, and I was shocked. And I decided to share it with you guys, also I wrote my "suggestions", on how to fix this grindfest, though I think of them more like of must-have immediate changes, since according to recent SteamCharts data people are leaving Vermintide 2, and leaving fast. And I think this is the main reason. You can check my thoughts on necessary changes here.
And here is a repeat link to the table. The formulas are working, you can play with the numbers: maybe you have your own vision on them, maybe your want to change them to fit your stats or maybe you just want to check if I messed up the numbers, which is a good thing to do.
Let's make a statistical verification of the theoretical calculations, btw you can do it too. So there is 54 weapons. Considering duplicates, I need to roll 3 times the weapon pool (the reasoning can be found in the second page of the spreadshit), which means I need to roll 162 weapons on average. I have 322 hours in the game. Let's say 100 hours were spent leveling up the characters, which means I have 222 hours of active playing. During that time I rolled 4 red weapons, so I get 1 red weapon per 222 / 4 = 55.5 hours. Then I need 55.5 * 162 = 8991 hours on average to get all red items. Considering that I play Legend and Champion 50/50, the resultant number would be about 1/3 lower, if I played exclusively Legend, which results in 5994 hours.
The deviation is horrible on such a low sample, but the actual value should fall into about x3 /3 interval. The most important thing is that the order of magnitude fits, which means that theoretical calculations are likely correct, at least not that far from the truth.
© Post "At least 4122 hours to get all red items prior 1.0.5. Likely much more." for game Warhammer: Vermintide.
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