Recently, a group including me, luxl, Kempy145, /u/Mad_Baz and on occasion /u/SneakyPanda_ (twitch) have been doing speedruns of various maps with the intention of posting some good times on the speedrun leaderboards. We mostly focused on getting 2, 3, or 4 player Full book runs of Against the Grain, Athel Yenlui and The Screaming Bell, Legend difficulty. (This is where your group pick up as many books as possible, and get them all registered on the ending scoreboard, aka going down, but not dying, when someone is in the dome counts)
Now, when you're speedrunning, getting a boss that projects an (usually) uncross-able wall is a wipe and start over, and after a couple of runs that ended this way, one of us; Baz iirc; noted that we had gotten an early concentration potion (in the first or second area, before a boss spawn point) in both cases. We then wondered whether getting a concentration potion caused the AI director to throw a wall spawning boss at us. Thus I started making a note of when we got a concentration pot, and whether we also got a boss that projected a wall, using my highly sophisticated pen and scrap paper. So far I have recorded 70 runs of all 3 maps; from my personally playing or watching Kempy's or Sneakypandas stream; and here are the totals so far:
Null Hypothesis: The finding of a concentration potion has no effect on whether the group got a boss that spawned a path blocking wall.
|Concentration Potion?||Wall Spawning Boss||Frequency|
Comparing various results one can see some rather interesting points:
If a wall boss spawns, the group had a concentration potion in twice as many cases
There were plenty of runs that didn't get a wall spawning boss when we had a concentration potion
It really likes giving the group a Bile troll on Athel Yenlui if they get an early concentration potion (most of these were recorded from sneakypandas stream. I may or may not have cursed them by mentioning the fledgling concspiracy)
A particular run of note where the group got a Stormfiend after an early concentration potion on Against the grain, Luxl threw a bomb at it as it climbed over the wall/gate at the first barn, and it promptly despawned/died instantly. (There is a video in mad_baz' comment below)
I also recorded which boss it was, and by and large they were evenly split; 5 Bile trolls, 6 Stormfiends for "Not Seen;" 3 Bile Trolls, 4 Stormfiends for "later;" But for the early concentration potions there were 7 Bile trolls to only 3 Stormfiends!
There is certainly enough of a bias to keep the Concspiracy alive so far
There are several things that must be mentioned as any good scientist should:
Just because the group didn't see a concentration potion, does not mean that one didn't spawn in that run.
due to the guaranteed barn boss in Against the grain not spawning a wall, no matter the boss, I disregarded which boss that was as it had no impact on our run. This skews the later concentration potion with NO boss value, but this is fine as our focus was really on that early concentration potion-wall spawning boss link.
The noting of concentration potions only noted if at least one such potion was discovered, and didn't differentiate between one or more than one.
I did not make note of which map the run took place on, (probably the biggest fault with the data) or on how many people were in the run. Most took place on Against the grain, about 10 or so took place on The Screaming Bell and Athel Yenlui, and most again were 4 people runs with 10 or so 3 and 2 people runs.
70 for total frequency is pretty shit from a statistical standpoint so running any deep level mathematics on this when 5% is 3.5 runs seemed excessive. I really need more data
Thanks for reading this little slice of science!
Credit to twitch user MarmaladeDuck for coming up with the name Concspiracy.
I've included links to those of our groups who stream on twitch in their names, and to the speedrun website, should anyone be interested.
© Post "Do Concentration Potions spawn bosses with walls? The concspiracy" for game Warhammer: Vermintide.
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