Warhammer: Vermintide

Red Drop Redemption

chivalry screenshot1 - Red Drop Redemption

I know this is a topic near and dear to our hearts. I know some people seem to have more luck with the system than others. I have a proposition that I'm unsure has been offered up before.

Psudo Random Distribution

Taken from DOTA 2 wiki:

The uniform or true random distribution describes the probability of random event that underlies no manipulation of the chance depending on earlier outcomes. This means that every "roll" operates independently

The probability of an effect to occur (or red drop in this case) on the Nth test since the last successful proc is given by P(N) = C × N. For each instance which could trigger the effect but does not, the PRD augments the probability of the effect happening for the next instance by a constant C. This constant, which is also the initial probability, is lower than the listed probability of the effect it is shadowing. Once the effect occurs, the counter is reset


Example: Reds have a 10% chance drop. On the first chest, however, it only has an ~3.5% probability to drop. Each subsequent chest you open without a red increases the probability by ~3.5%. So on the second chest, the chance is ~7%, on the third it is 10.5~%, etc. After a drop occurs, the probability resets to ~3.5% for the next chest. These probabilities average out so that, over a moderate period of time, you get one red 10% of the time. Even if your luck was really bad, you'd be guaranteed to get one by your 28th game.

I feel that this solution offer a fair return on time investment. What do the rest of you think?

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