So I do stats work as my job and thought I'd apply some here to my boxes for interest. The sample size I have is relatively small but I still think you can draw some interesting conclusions from it.
- Boxes bought: 150 (total cost: £171.10)
- Cost per box: £1.14
- Total gold: 44,750
- Total silver: 11,400,000
- Total premium days: 119
- Total tanks: 20 (7 M4, 6 KV220, 3 Turan, 2 LEFH, 2 IS3-A)
- Gold from duplicate tanks: 33,390
- I received all 4 unique skins in boxes 6, 14, 50 & 91)
- I received 1 unique crew member
Average received per box:
- 298.3 gold
- 76000 silver
- 0.793 days of premium
- 0.046 M4 Improved (1 in 21.43)
- 0.040 KV220 (1 in 25)
- 0.020 Turan (1 in 50)
- 0.013 LeFH (1 in 75)
- 0.013 IS3-A (1 in 75)
I also broke it down by each 25 I opened and looked at the maximum variation between them.
- Gold ranged from 7000 to 8000
- Silver from 800,000 to 2,900,000
- Prem time from 9 to 35
- M4 from to 2
- KV-220 from to 2
- Turan from to 1
- IS3-A from to 1
- LeFH from to 1
The gold I received stayed reasonably static, ranging only from 7000 to 8000. (except for the fact that I started receiving gold for duplicate tanks later on which I didn't include because it's only relevant if you either own a lot of the tanks already or buy a lot of boxes)
Silver and premium time received varies wildly so that's complete pot luck. These two (and gold) are what I really wanted so the wild oscillations are concerning.
If you are after tanks then thats where the biggest gamble is. I got the IS3-A on boxes 14 & 150 and the LeFH showed it's face at 28 & 111. If you want these tanks (and I think the general consensus on both is that the game would be better of without them), you could easily find yourself sinking a lot of money without reward.
If you really want to do this for gold, silver and premium time then an argument could be made for it but honestly it look's like you'd be better of buying them specifically from the store. The variation that I had in my sample is just too wide to justify it.
If you want the tanks (without my passing judgement on whether you should or shouldn't want them) then set yourself an amount to buy and then stick to it. I had a gap of over 100 between the two IS3-As received and you could easily sink more and more money into 25 loot boxes with no reward.
TL:DR – A little statistic breakdown to my conclusions of: be wary about the value of buying these boxes and don't get sucked into the gambling process trying to get what you want. You'll potentially be left with nothing to show for it.
Three comments to add:
- Yes I also shouldn't have bought these but I fancied some retail therapy and it gave me a chance to do this.
- I won't be using the LeFH or IS3-A.
- The statistical validity is far from perfect with a sample size this small. Just wanted to have something to break it down.
© Post "150 box breakdown – if you’re interested" for game World of Tanks.
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