Note that this is for the North & South American Servers only.
Sorry for the massive delay in getting this posted. I was on vacation for the first week of 2019, and then had the flu. And yeah, I did see what the January On-Tracks were when they were posted, and as usual, they're nonsense.
First we get the T57 Heavy which we had less than 10 months ago. This tank is only the 36th most due tank & line. This makes no sense. There are 52 Tier X tanks, soon to be 53, and with the current rotation of only starting a new On-Track once every 3 weeks, we will be waiting ~3 years for a new rotation to start. When there are unnecessary repeats, it becomes even longer. That said, in last month's predictions, I did pencil in the T57 Heavy for the end of June, just so we'd have an American tank to cover July 4th, as WG like to do that, but there's really no reason to have it On-Track in January.
Then we get the STB-1 for the second January On-Track. While Japan was the most overdue nation, the STB-1 was not the most overdue Japanese tank. Why not the Type 5 Heavy? We haven't seen that line go On-Track in well over 2 years, and it's the 2nd most overdue! The STB-1 was the 18th most due tank, or 22nd most due line. Plus you're going to have a Japanese tank for the Chinese New Year? Ironically, a couple of months ago, u/windsoxx said:
I still think a Japanese tank anywhere near that time period is in poor judgement. If WG does it, I'd be surprised.
Congrats WG, still surprising the player base.
Most Overdue (excluding SPG's)
- Nation: China, France, UK
- Class:: Light, TD
- Nation/Class Combo: Japan/Heavy, France/TD,
/Light, China/Medium, UK/Heavy, German/TD
- Tanks: Grille 15, Type 5 Heavy, Strv 103B, E 50 Ausf. M, T110E4, T-100 LT, WZ-132-1, Rheinmetall Panzerwagen, AMX 13 105
(not much new here)
It's now 636 days since the Light Tanks were released. It's hard to understand why we saw the Sheridan over a year ago in December 2017, and haven't seen any other Light Tanks yet. There have been plenty good opportunities to have one represent a nation, event, etc. I know I've been predicting one for a while, and it hasn't happened yet, but you'd have to think that with each month that goes by, it gets more likely! I'm not giving up!
We've seen the Object 277, K-91, and Progetto be On-Track closer to their release date than any tank that's come before. At this point, we could label that a trend, and expect more of the same. The next most likely candidate is the 60TP, and I could see that being On-Track at any time now. Going back a bit further, we have the Object 705A, Object 268 v.4, and Object 430U. All of those would feel far too soon, but at this point in time, no longer a surprise. I'm going to go as far as listing the 60TP in my predictions, but consider it interchangeable with any of these 3 Russian tanks as well. There will be a curve ball for sure…. more curve balls.
STILL STILL STILL waiting on the Grille. 964 days since it was released, and 1120 days since this line was last On-Track, almost a year more than any other tank. Wow, this is fun. This is a record for a non-SPG. It sounds like the Grille re-work is off the table, so there's no reason to hold off having this line be On-Track! Oh, you've read this paragraph before? Of all paragraphs I've ever written, this is the one I'm most looking forward to never having to look at again! I'm stubborn. I'm leaving it in my predictions.
I'd been saying the Strv 103B needed to be On-Track, because it never has been and is certainly overdue, and so was Sweden, but after December's Kranvagn On-Track, we'll probably have a wait a while longer. It's still the 3rd most overdue overall, so you'd think it still can't be that long. Also, by the dates alone, 6 of the next 17 On-Tracks should be TD's, so they really need to start knocking these out. I know a lot of players had the 2016 Christmas discounts on this line, but that's over 2 years ago, and a lot of new players have joined since then, making those discounts irrelevant to a lot of players.
There won't be any SPG On-Tracks in 2018 or 2019, and if there are, I'll probably just quit writing these. As they're so controversial, expect to wait twice as long for them as any other tank class, and with the current schedule, that could be a really long time. I'm no longer listing them in the most overdue Tanks section.
After the Kranvagn On-Track, the Type 5 is truly now the only Heavy that's due any time soon, but that doesn't mean it will be. France and the UK both need representation, so we could see the AMX M4 54 or Super Conqueror respectively. The still somewhat new Object 705A is another candidate, as is the recently released 60TP. Also, after the Type 5, the IS-4 is the next most due Heavy Tank, even though I don't necessarily think it will be the next. For now, after having seen the STB-1 On-Track, I'll push the Type 5 just beyond the list.
In February, the first line of wheeled vehicles will be released. Since this is something entirely new, I'm sure WG will have some missions associated with their release, perhaps discounts equivalent to an On-Track. There may even be an On-Track, if not for the wheeled vehicles, perhaps for the French Light line which they branch off from. Either way, we need French representation, and the LT line is the best candidate.
With the current scheduling, we will often only see one On-Track in a calendar month, and I've accounted for that below.
- Feb: Grille 15
- Mar: AMX 13 105 (or other LT)
- Apr: E 50 Ausf. M, FV217 Badger
- May: 121
- Jun: 60 TP, T110E4
- Jul: Strv 103B
Honestly, these are getting harder and harder to predict. There used to be a pattern, and there isn't any more. We used to feel like On-Tracks were for the players, and now it feels like they're a comedic social experiment. The rewards have gotten worse, the scheduling has gotten worse, and obviously, the logic of the tanks that are On-Track is practically non-existent. I've done this for almost two years, and in year one, I got almost all my predictions right, in year two, not so much. I'd quite happily get them all wrong if they would just be logical, and if I felt like WG were doing these with nothing but the players best interest in mind, or even if they were basing them off good business decisions, we'd understand, but neither seem to be the case. No, I'm no quitting this yet, because even though a part of me does feel like it's more and more of waste of time, I still enjoy parts of it too…. and I know some of you guys love it 🙂
PSA: It might be worth waiting to see what the one and only On-Track is that starts in February, before applying your Christmas Ops discount. Presumably, the February "Preview" will be posted on or around February 4th. This will prevent you from applying it to tanks and lines that might be about to be On-Track. The discount must be applied by Patch 1.4, which is tentatively scheduled for an early February release. Even beyond that, you might want to avoid applying the discount to anything I'm predicting to be On-Track in the near future. Even though, yeah, it seems anything can be On-Track these days, and these predictions should maybe be used in inverse 🙂
Anything you'd like to see me do differently with these? Any questions? What tank are you waiting to see On-Track? I'll reply to all comments below!
Hopefully these help your planning and you can save a bunch of credits! Good luck grinding!
© Post "On-Track Predictions: February & Beyond!" for game World of Tanks.
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