World of Tanks

On-Track Predictions: June & Beyond!

WorldofTanks3 - On-Track Predictions: June & Beyond!
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Note that this is for the American region only. The European server has an equivalent called Top of the Tree.

 

Sorry for the delay, but I'll make up for it, I promise! 🙂

Before we get to the analysis of the May On-Track (spoiler: it's stupid), I have some interesting info to share. Last month, my son and I were picked to attend an early preview of a World of Tanks event at the American Heritage Museum in Massachusetts. Not only did we get do see dozens of incredible tanks up close before the general public could (Cromwell B was my favorite), we also got to meet lots of wonderful people from Wargaming including TragicLoss, CabbageMechanic, The_Chieftan, KRZYBoop, and Steve (from behind the camera on WoTWeekly – do you have an IGN, Steve?)….. but that's not all! I also got a few little nuggets of insider info about On-Tracks!

  • All On-Tracks have to be approved by HQ, so the final decision is not in the hands of the American team.
  • They have tried, but cannot get permission to have the Grille be On-Track
  • They admit they have made recent mistakes with On-Tracks, and one example is when they thought it would be a good idea to have the Italian line be On-Track in March, since the Tier VIII is popular for Frontlines, but they admit they forgot they already had it On-Track in October.
  • None of the people I listed are responsible for On-Track selections. I didn't get a name, but they referred to him as "the On-Track guy" 🙂

With that out of the way, well, yes, you can certainly expect one big change in my predictions this month.

Let's look at May though. After April's picks were quite good, it's not a huge surprise that the May Preview shows us that we're back to back to being….. fairly bad. I won't say terrible, but it's certainly not good. It's the Sheridan. Again. So the Sheridan was actually 19th on the due list, which isn't so awful, but there's two very strange elements to this On-Track. After going OVER A YEAR without a Light Tank On-Track, why would we now have back to back ones?!?! What's more weird is that this is the Sheridan's second On-Track, while the T-100 LT and Rheinmetall Panzerwagen have yet to see even one, despite all these Light Tanks being released at the exact same time.

That said, in last month's predictions, I actually had some thoughts on the Sheridan:

If WG do still want to have an American Tank represent Independence Day, the best option is actually the Sheridan. Yes, that would put the Sheridan On-Track twice before some of the Light Tanks are On-Track even once, but I just don't see what else they could do that's half way sensible from the American Tanks

…. but the crazy part is, they didn't even wait for Independence Day, as this Sheridan On-Track will finish 1 month before! There was really no good reason to have it be On-Track now. Independence day could have been represented by the T110E4, but instead we got it in April, and then it could have been represented by the Sheridan, but instead we get it in May. Feels like they missed the boat on that one.

In terms of On-Track mechanics, it seemed they were making a change where you now had to buy at full price then play 10 battles to get the discount, but you could actually play any tank in the line, even ones you hadn't bought as part of the on-track, to get this discount. There were mixed feelings about this, certainly some pros and cons, and I posted my thoughts last month in the comments section. People started planning for this, but then they changed it back to the old format, and because both changes were unannounced, there was a LOT of frustration. For now, it looks like we're back to old format.

Read:  Estimated battle count to get the TS-5 through commitment Mission

 

Most Overdue (excluding SPG's)

  • Nation: UK, Czech, Russia
  • Class: Heavy, Medium
  • Nation/Class Combo: Japan/Heavy, France/TD, /Light, China/Medium, UK/Heavy, German/TD, France Heavy
  • Tanks: Grille 15, Type 5 Heavy, Strv 103B, E 50 Ausf. M, T-100 LT, Rheinmetall Panzerwagen, AMX 30 B, 121, Jagdpanzer E 100

 

Analysis

Just when I was thinking they were trying to have the first On-Track for all Light Tank lines, we start getting repeats, before some get their first. It's a bit hard to figure out, but I feel like the remaining two are still going to pop this year, and the Sheridan was maybe just a mistake (they forgot they already had it On-Track?). The AMX 13 105 spanned Feb/Mar, the WZ-132-1 spanned Apr/May, and the Sheridan will span May/Jun. 3 consecutive months of Light Tanks. Could we expect more?

So we got the SPG update in 1.5, but no SPG On-Track to coincide with it, and I doubt there will be one. Maybe they want the T92 to be the tank that now represents Independence Day, and from a due date perspective, it makes the most sense, but it's an SPG, so I doubt it. 2020 is more likely for SPG's, but I wouldn't even put money on that.

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Toward the end of 2018, we saw the Object 277, K-91, and Progetto be On-Track closer to their release date than any tank that's come before. At this point, we could label that a trend, and expect more of the same. There's a few likely candidates, and I had been saying the 60TP was #1, but now we've had the Swedish Mediums released, although there is some redundancy with the Kranvagn line, and that was just On-Track in December. Going back a bit further, we have the Object 705A, Object 268 v.4, and Object 430U. All of those would feel far too soon, but at this point in time, no longer a surprise.

Random stat (updated), and somewhat following on from the above paragraph, we have 13 Tier X tanks which have never been On-Track. Of those, 3 are entire lines which have never been On-Track, 4 are where only the Tier X of the line hasn't been On-Track, and the other 6 have one or more new or moved tanks in their line which also haven't been On-Track. We should expect some of these, particularly the newer releases to be wild cards.

Well, here it is. We will finally stop hoping/expecting/scratching our heads over a Grille On-Track. If you didn't read it above already, I found out the the American office cannot get permission to from HQ to have an On-Track for it. That said, gotta keep the stats going! 1076 days since it was released, and 1232 days since this line was last On-Track; a record for a non-SPG.

I'd been saying the Strv 103B needed to be On-Track, because it never has been and is certainly overdue, and so was Sweden, but after December's Kranvagn On-Track, we'll probably have a wait a while longer. It's still the 3rd most overdue overall, so you'd think it still can't be that long, unless they decide to already give us an On-Track for the new Medium line first, and make us wait even longer. I know a lot of players had the 2016 Christmas discounts on this line, but that's over 2 years ago, and a lot of new players have joined since then, making those discounts irrelevant to a lot of players.

After the Kranvagn On-Track in December, the Type 5 is truly now the only Heavy that's due any time soon, but that doesn't mean it will be. As always, logically, you'd think the recent changes to the guns would be enough of an incentive for players to want to play it (even though some players hate the changes). France and the UK both need Heavy representation, so we could see the AMX M4 54 or Super Conqueror respectively. The still somewhat new Object 705A is another candidate, as is the recently released 60TP. After the Type 5, the IS-4 is the next most due Heavy Tank, even though I don't necessarily think it will be the next. Also, now that they've shot themselves in the foot a bit, by eliminating the two best options to represent Independence Day (T110E4 & Sheridan), and if not the T92, the T110E5 is the next best option, even though it's only 32nd on the due list. They've been pretty consistent throughout the years by having something American On-Track around Independence Day, and they haven't been shy about having weird repeats.

We're due for a Russian tank soon, and besides the T-100 LT, one of the Medium lines might be the best candidate. The T-62A is up to 14th on the list, and while the Object 140 isn't close to due, I think they will combine these into one On-Track when the time comes. I could also see the 430U appearing soon. The tank itself has never been On-Track, and it's ~2.5 years since the line was last On-Track. I don't have them listed in my predictions at the moment, but I think we'll see one of these this year.

Despite having the AMX 13 105 On-Track in February, and despite being only a medium sized tech tree, France still have as many upcoming due tanks as any other nation. The 30 B, Foch B, and AMX M4 54 could all appear in the near future.

Not that it's anywhere close to due, but we could see the Czech line On-Track at some point this year, to coincide with the release of the Tier VIII Czech Medium Autoloader.

We also have some Tier X tanks being re-balanced this year, the E 100, IS-4, Leopard 1, STB-1, AMX 30B, and the Kranvagn was just updated in the last patch. We've already seen most of those On-Track quite recently, and it would be a shock to see them On-Track again. The exceptions are the AMX 30B & IS-4, which are already approaching overdue territory. While I always think people will play something if it's new and shiny, and there doesn't need to be an extra incentive to play it, WG have often gone in the opposite direction, and might throw in an On-Track on top of everything else.

 

Predictions

With the current scheduling, we will often only see one On-Track in a calendar month, and I've accounted for that below.

 

  • Jun: E 50 Ausf. M, T110E5
  • Jul: T-100 LT or Rheinmetall Panzerwagen
  • Aug: Strv 103B, Type 5 Heavy
  • Sep: Super Conqueror
  • Oct: 60 TP, M48 Patton
  • Nov: AMX Foch B

…..and 5 more: 121, IS-4, AMX 30 B, FV217 Badger, AMX M4 54

 

Hopefully these help your planning and you can save a bunch of credits! Good luck grinding!

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