World of Tanks

On-Track Predictions: May & Beyond!

WorldofTanks2 - On-Track Predictions: May & Beyond!
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Note that this is for the American region only. The European server has an equivalent called Top of the Tree.

 

A rare month with some solid On-Track picks from WGA. April's Preview informs us that we'll have the T110E4 & WZ-132-1 be On-Track. I think players will be reasonably happy with these, and I think WG have been paying attention to the complaints in the comments here and on the official forums. Let's break down the good and the bad for April:

T110E4 – The Good

  • 5th most overdue non-SPG
  • 273 days since last TD On-Track started
  • 6 of the next 13 On-Tracks were due to be TD's, so we needed to get some on the board

T110E4 – The Bad

  • Would have made sense to wait until Independence Day to have USA tank represent. There aren't any other USA tanks in the top 20, so it will now be a stretch to have one represent Independence Day.
  • Even having it represent on Memorial Day would have made more sense.
  • It's not the Grille

WZ-132-1 – The Good

  • 6th most overdue non-SPG
  • Most overdue nation
  • Never been On-Track before

WZ-132-1 – The Bad

  • Besides the Sheridan, it's very odd that they waited two years before having the new Light Tank's be On-Track, and now they've essentially had two On-Track in back to back months (the AMX 13 105 ran to mid-March).
  • This should have represented the Chinese New Year in February
  • It's not the Grille

In my predictions last month, I had the T110E4 penciled in for the end of June, so that it would represent Independence Day for the USA. We knew it should have been coming soon, but that certainly seems like a missed opportunity. On the Light Tank front, I said "ideally we'll see a couple more in 2019, but it will probably be a few months before we see another one." I certainly never expected to see another one this soon, and it's hard to see the logic, but it's still not a bad pick in the grand scheme of things.

 

Most Overdue (excluding SPG's)

  • Nation: UK, Czech, Russia
  • Class: Heavy, Medium
  • Nation/Class Combo: Japan/Heavy, France/TD, /Light, China/Medium, UK/Heavy, German/TD, USA/Light
  • Tanks: Grille 15, Type 5 Heavy, Strv 103B, E 50 Ausf. M, T-100 LT, Rheinmetall Panzerwagen, AMX 30 B, 121, Jagdpanzer E 100

 

Analysis

Did someone wake up and realize they forgot to put 4 of the Light Tank lines On-Track? Are they trying to catch up now, and we'll have all 4 in quick succession? Just two to go now. I think we'll get them all in 2019, and at this rate, maybe we'll see them all in the first half of the year. If WG do still want to have an American Tank represent Independence Day, the best option is actually the Sheridan. Yes, that would put the Sheridan On-Track twice before some of the Light Tanks are On-Track even once, but I just don't see what else they could do that's half way sensible from the American Tanks, unless……

…..unless we get a surprise SPG, the T92! I could only see them doing this to coincide with the SPG rework that's coming this year. I haven't seen any timelines, but I suppose it's possible the release could align with Independence Day. Seems like a long shot though, and I'd lean toward going with what I always say, that they're so controversial, expect to wait twice as long for them as any other tank class, and with the current schedule, that could be a really long time. I'm no longer listing them in the most overdue Tanks section. 2020 is probably the earliest we'll see them go On-Track again.

Toward the end of 2018, we saw the Object 277, K-91, and Progetto be On-Track closer to their release date than any tank that's come before. At this point, we could label that a trend, and expect more of the same. The next most likely candidate is the 60TP, and I could see that being On-Track at any time now. Going back a bit further, we have the Object 705A, Object 268 v.4, and Object 430U. All of those would feel far too soon, but at this point in time, no longer a surprise. I'm going to go as far as listing the 60TP in my predictions, but consider it interchangeable with any of these 3 Russian tanks as well. There will be a curve ball for sure…. more curve balls.

Random stat (updated), and somewhat following on from the above paragraph, we have 13 Tier X tanks which have never been On-Track. Of those, 3 are entire lines which have never been On-Track, 4 are where only the Tier X of the line hasn't been On-Track, and the other 6 have one or more new or moved tanks in their line which also haven't been On-Track. We should expect some of these, particularly the newer releases (so not the Grille!) to be wild cards.

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STILL STILL STILL STILL STILL STILL waiting on the Grille (yes, I have started adding an extra "STILL" each month). 1037 days since it was released, and 1193 days since this line was last On-Track, almost a year more than any other tank. Wow, this is fun. This is a record for a non-SPG. It sounds like the Grille re-work is off the table, so there's no reason to hold off having this line be On-Track! Oh, you've read this paragraph before? Of all paragraphs I've ever written, this is the one I'm most looking forward to never having to look at again! I'm stubborn. I'm leaving it in my predictions. Starting to wonder if this is a standoff I'm having with WG. They'll put it On-Track as soon as I stop predicting it for the next month (which I'll never do!). There might be some reverse psychology going on this month….. or is it reverse reverse psychology?

I'd been saying the Strv 103B needed to be On-Track, because it never has been and is certainly overdue, and so was Sweden, but after December's Kranvagn On-Track, we'll probably have a wait a while longer. It's still the 3rd most overdue overall, so you'd think it still can't be that long. I know a lot of players had the 2016 Christmas discounts on this line, but that's over 2 years ago, and a lot of new players have joined since then, making those discounts irrelevant to a lot of players. Another interesting element here is the upcoming Swedish Medium tanks. I say this because they are going to have the Siege Mode like the top three Swedish TD's do, so I wonder if they could end up branching off the TD line, rather than the existing Light > Medium > Heavy line. Perhaps that will be an opportunity for a Strv 103B On-Track.

After the Kranvagn On-Track in December, the Type 5 is truly now the only Heavy that's due any time soon, but that doesn't mean it will be. France and the UK both need representation, so we could see the AMX M4 54 or Super Conqueror respectively. The still somewhat new Object 705A is another candidate, as is the recently released 60TP. Also, after the Type 5, the IS-4 is the next most due Heavy Tank, even though I don't necessarily think it will be the next. Despite what I said above about the Sheridan being the only half way sensible tank to represent Independence Day, I have a feeling they'll go with the E5. Yes, they might have nothing at all, but they've been pretty consistent throughout the years by having something American On-Track around Independence Day, and they haven't been shy about having weird repeats.

We're due for a Russian tank soon, and besides the T-100 LT, one of the Medium lines might be the best candidate. The T-62A is up to 14th on the list, and while the Object 140 isn't close to due, I think they will combine these into one On-Track when the time comes. I could also see the 430U appearing soon. The tank itself has never been On-Track, and it's ~2.5 years since the line was last On-Track. I don't have them listed in my predictions at the moment, but I think we'll see one of these this year.

Despite having the AMX 13 105 On-Track in February, and despite being only a medium sized tech tree, France still have as many upcoming due tanks as any other nation. The 30 B, Foch B, and AMX M4 54 could all appear in the near future.

Not that it's anywhere close to due, but we could see the Czech line On-Track at some point this year, to coincide with the release of the Tier VIII Czech Medium Autoloader.

We also have some Tier X tanks being re-balanced this year, the E 100, IS-4, Leopard 1, STB-1, and Kranvagn. We've already seen most of those quite recently, and it would be a shock to see them On-Track again. The exception is the IS-4, which is already approaching overdue territory. While I always think people will play something if it's new and shiny, and there doesn't need to be an extra incentive to play it, WG have often gone in the opposite direction, and might throw in an On-Track on top of everything else.

 

Predictions

With the current scheduling, we will often only see one On-Track in a calendar month, and I've accounted for that below.

 

  • May: Super Conqueror
  • Jun: Grille 15, T110E5
  • Jul: E 50 Ausf. M
  • Aug: Strv 103B, Type 5 Heavy
  • Sep: T-100 LT or Rheinmetall Panzerwagen
  • Oct: 60 TP, M48 Patton

…..and 5 more: 121, IS-4, AMX 30 B, AMX Foch B, FV217 Badger

 

PSA: We have the anniversary of the American release of WoT this month, so there's a good chance of some discounts then. Save those credits!

Hopefully these help your planning and you can save a bunch of credits! Good luck grinding!

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