World of Warcraft

No, you don’t NEED to be 38 on Mythic Release, and if you actually do NEED it, you will be 38 when it comes out anyway.

wow5 - No, you don't NEED to be 38 on Mythic Release, and if you actually do NEED it, you will be 38 when it comes out anyway.

Seen so much complaining on this subreddit recently about being forced to "farm" azerite because they "have" to be neck level 38 for mythic release. This is a horrible complaint.

First off, you'll have the AK increase on heroic release that'll lower that requirement by 30%, and you'll get one on Mythic Tuesday/Wednesday as well to finish it off by whenever your first mythic raid starts if you somehow really need it.

Second, let's look at the math a little. To even NEED 38 on mythic release would require that you get a mythic shoulders drop in the first week of mythic. Unless you are a mail class, you will thus need to kill at least 2 mythic bosses in the first week to NEED 38. You have about a 3/10 chance of getting a loot drop at all. Multiply that by the 1 in 4 chance you actually get the right piece, and you come out to a 7.5% chance of getting a mythic shoulders piece if you kill the boss that drops your piece, or about 15% if you roll on it (I'm not sure if bonus rolls have same loot drop rate as regular drop). You must also have more time left in your raid week for it to matter, if you get a mythic shoulders drop on your last boss kill of the raid week and don't have time for a serious push onto the next boss, by definition it doesn't matter whether or not you can immediately unlock the trait.

Third, lets look at what would be lost by not having these traits, assuming you meet the above conditions and got your drop. The largest possible amount one trait in the ring in question can give right now is 378 dps, Overwhelming Power for Shadow Priest. This is on 385 gear, so we need to increase this by about 30% to estimate how much dps it would give on a 415 piece. Comes out to 491.4 dps. Now, sims for 8.1.5 aren't out yet, but, for the purpose of this exercise we will conservatively estimate overall dps sim in optimal gear to go up 20%. This means a shadow priest in BoD will sim in the neighborhood of 23-24k dps. Let's use 23k as the conservative estimate once again. Divide 491.4 into 23k and you get 2.136%. This number is the maximum possible dps any one class could be missing from not having their mythic shoulder trait available, but in practice it will be even lower for most classes.

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Now that we have our numbers, which again, are at best a ~15% chance of getting a mythic shoulder drop first week and the missing trait on it being worth at best 2.136% dps increase, let's explain why it isn't worth your time to farm out. Unless you perform up to 95% of your sim on a patchwerk fight, said 2.13% increase is more than attainable through refining your rotation, improving how you move in fights, etc. which can be easily done through decent analysis of your own logs. If you spent even half as much time analyzing and refining your play as it takes to get to 38 neck level, you would see a much better payoff. Unless you parse 95+ for your ilvl consistently, your play can absolutely be improved 2.1%, no matter how "sure" you are that you're doing it right. So the only people who can possibly "have" to be 38 are people who are killing AT LEAST 2 bosses in the first mythic week, and if they don't wear mail then at least 3 bosses. Last tier there were 473 guilds who killed Zek'voz before the first reddit. So, for this to even possibly apply, you must be in a top 500 world guild. I cannot possibly believe that every single person complaining about "having" to be 38 on release is both in a top 500 world guild, but doesn't play enough to get 38 through their normal play. That is literally the entire sector of the playerbase that really has a leg to stand on when they argue that they are "forced" to farm to 38 before mythic release, yet somehow the complaint is pervasive throughout the subreddit and game.

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