TLDR; You have to take the time to analyze your toon. Hopefully the information below helps.
Let’s get right down to it.
A random piece costs 1725.
A specific piece costs 7150.
So a random piece costs around 24% of a specific piece. This means in the time you save up for a specific slot, you could have purchased four random pieces, right?
Wrong. Well, it’s not entirely correct that is.
It is (basically) five. If you do not get your BIS, you are going to scrap. Scrapping 415 gives you 365 Titan residuum. Doing that 4x in itself should get you right on the edge of being able to buy a 5th random piece in that time frame.
In the time you save up for a specific piece, you could have bought ~5 random pieces.
There are 6 pieces that each random piece can roll. If you are aiming for that single piece of BIS gear, that gives you a 16.667% to get that piece per random purchase. So, using the info above, and the Bernoulli process, if you buy 5 random pieces, that puts you at about a 40% of success on getting that targeted BIS.
I know statistics is tricky, I am by any means not a expert in the field, and I know there are a lot of ways to calculate this. Hell, I’m not entirely sure if I even calculated it right. But I know one thing…
Which is my #2:
Chances are against you to get that piece you’re targeted item faster if you go the random route. You have a higher chance of getting that BIS quicker via saving up for the specific.
Okay, so save up for the specific. Simple, right?
You’re going to save for specific slots, possibly 3x, in the span of season 2?
Let’s say, on the quicker side, it takes 6 weeks to get a specific piece. You are talking about 18 weeks to get three BIS Azerite pieces. By the time you get them, Azshara will be within near sight. (18 weeks from now is June-July). Shooting for two pieces will take you 3 months.
Crucible is probably 2ish months away, possibly dropping better Azerite gear for you?
You be the judge.
That BIS Azerite piece won’t be BIS forever. How you can get it, meaningfully utilize it needs to be a part of the decision making process for it.
It comes down to you.
Personally, I thought I was going to take the route of saving up for specifics, but then quickly realized that by the time I did that, pieces would either be out of season or BIS for a short period.
There is no clear cut answer on which route you should take. My advice would be to analyze a few things;
- Pick one route, don’t do both.
- Your current gear, how much of an upgrade is a 415 piece? Bloodmallet can be a good resource. Also raidbots.
- Going for one specific 415 is feasible. Going for 2-3 in a season is a stretch.
- Does Mythic champion drop a good Azerite piece for you? Even if you are casual, the fight is simple on Mythic. (Ret pally here, the chest is good for us) If she does, don’t go for that specific piece on the vendor.
- Are there numerous pieces in a specific slot off the vendor that would be very good for you? If there are 2/6 that are the top tier of Azerite in that given slot, I would go the random route for them.
With all of this said, it looks like I’m jumping on the RNG wagon. I thought the “wise” route would be to save, but after further analyzing the situation and my current gear, it looks like I will be rolling the dice every other week.
Hope this helped!
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