World of Warships

2+ Months of Data: Where we were, where we are, and what happens next

WorldOfWarships1 - 2+ Months of Data: Where we were, where we are, and what happens next

First off: Why the $(#^& did I do this?

Anyway, some of you may have noticed that I've been collecting data for a while now.. A few less might remember that I compared server stats before and after the rework a while back. Well, I've done it again, but this tracks the game over months.

I have data from the week before the rework (week of Jan. 19, 2019) and weekly data from April 20th until now. I've stripped the numbers down to only include tiers 4, 6, 8, and 10. I then reduced it further by taking a weighted average against the total number of battles played per ship and the total battles of the respective class per tier. This will reduce the effect that a little played, but exceptionally good or bad ship will have on the final results.

This was done for NA, as I had most of the data on hand, and previous analyses have shown little difference between the servers on an overall scale. The trends tend to be the same.

Two important notes before we get started: First, the Azur Lane collaboration happened in the middle of the dataset. It was a massive success in that it brought a TON of people into the game. It was a massive flop if you consider that they all left afterwards. It also succeeded in heavily screwing with population and battle count data. Second, T10 ranked is ongoing. That further lowers the T10 population statistics for the latest week.

Now that you have that in mind, here is some of the data in graphical form:
Ci1ciaa - 2+ Months of Data: Where we were, where we are, and what happens nextimgur link

Here is the full analysis on Google Docs. Note, the comparison page does not have the formulas included. Those can be found in the weekly tabs.

Edit: data from our maple syrup covered angel

What I've found since the rework:

Population data

  • T10, T8, and T6 player counts for all classes except CV have dropped by 41% on average since the rework
  • T4 player counts have risen across the board
  • CV population has at least tripled at each tier
  • Battle counts changed accordingly

Damage Output

  • T10 damage output for all but CVs has barely fluctuated
  • BB damage output has risen overall
  • DD damage output has been almost completely unaffected by the CV rework (it has actually risen in most cases overall)
  • Outside of CVs, cruiser damage has taken the largest hit dropping at T10 (-2.3%), T8 (-7.1%), and T6 (-10%)
  • CV damage has dropped over 20% at T10 and T4
  • CV damage output has stayed fairly steady at T8 (that's a problem)
  • CV damage output has risen at T6 by 11% (that's a big problem)

Kills per match

  • BB kills per match rose slightly
  • CA kills per match dropped slighty at T10, significantly at T8 and T6, and remained unchanged at T4
  • DD kills per match dropped slightly at T10, T8, and T6, but rose by a similar amount at T4
  • T10 CV kills have dropped by 40% (note: pre-rework was almost always 1 CV per match)
  • T8 CV kills remained the same (that's a problem)
  • T6 CV kills rose by 6% (that's a big problem)
  • T4 CV kills have dropped by 24%

Base Capturedoes anyone know if the numbers here are representative of successful captures, or all points accrued?

  • DD base capture points have actually risen since the rework at all but T4
  • Values remain basically unchanged for other classes (the values are so low that even one extra point is a massive % change)

Base Defense

  • Values for all but CVs are basically unchanged
  • CV base defense points have at least doubled at each tier

Survival Rate

  • BB survival rate remains largely unchanged
  • CA survivability has risen slightly at T10 and T6, but fallen slightly at T8 and T4
  • CV survivability has risen slightly at all tiers
  • DD survivability has remained basically unchanged at all but T4 (where it dropped 17%)

Spotting Damage

  • BB spotting dropped slightly
  • CA spotting dropped slightly at each tier
  • CV spotting has "dropped" by 10% or more at all but T4
  • DD spotting is mostly unchanged outside of T4 (where it dropped 12%)

What the numbers say:

  • First: multiple CV matches are much much more common now. That has to be considered in the stats.
    • That might be why CVs were allowed in ranked. The data from before the rework is almost exclusively single CV matches.
  • DDs are not dying any more than they used to
  • DDs are still doing just as much damage and spotting
  • T8 and T6 CVs need a nerf
  • BBs don't care about the rework
  • CAs saw the biggest hit overall

My take:

  • Getting focused by a CV sucks. It's a slow death now as opposed to the instant deletion that it used to be, and that's more frustrating
  • There are a ton of CVs around now, so that's more likely to happen than it used to be
  • The rework was a step towards fixing something people didn't like. Unfortunately, there were two parts to that:
    • People largely didn't like playing carriers (addressed)
    • People don't like playing against carriers (exacerbated)
  • It doesn't matter if you nerf carriers if there is no way to combat them in the first place (read: reliable AA and slingshot abuse)

People aren't leaving because the game is imbalanced; they are leaving because they don't like playing against carriers with little to no counterplay. It's broken. Carriers haven't crushed the other classes, but they have made gameplay annoying. You simply can't rely on your defenses, no matter how much you invest and how much combat ability you sacrifice to purchase that safety.

Honestly, it probably would have been in WG's best interest to simply remove carriers outright. I enjoy the style of the rework, and I would love a version in which they are balanced properly and not a pain in the ass to fight against. Unfortunately, that isn't where we are right now.

Now I'm afraid that WG is in damage control. The AL collab failed to keep anyone around, and the population continues to drop. They are going to have to do something quickly to try to reverse this trend. Hell, we just had a new ship line release, and the numbers dropped.

To me, a CV should have to be very careful in how it approaches targets. Planes should be fragile. Planes should be hard to replace. DefAA should be a realistic threat. Play a T6 CV in a mostly T8 match, and you have my preferred situation. It's not easy, nor should it be. Running out of planes should be a serious issue, even when top tier.

I don't know how WG is going to pull this one off. I hope they do. I enjoy this game, and I think it can be done right with all classes. It's just going to take time, and I hope they can make it until then.

Source: Original link

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