I recently asked people here what results they got from the european lootboxes.
Using only the replies where people opened the boxes individually I got an average result of 42,8 with an uncertainty of plus/minus 13,2 with an about 95% certainti that the real rate is within that window.
Using all the available data, I had to do a bit of trickery to get a confidence interval. (I assumed that the two data sets had the same variation). This got an average rate of 35,8 +/-8,6.
Since people like round numbers (they are easier to put into the spreadsheet да) I would guess that the drop rate is either 40 or 35, with 30 as an unlikely third option.
Lets look at what these drop rates would look like after completion of the first directive (4 containers), after the second (9 from directives and 1 from daylies) after the third (18 total) after the event (25 total).
|rate is 30||rate is 35||rate is 40|
|4||120||no ship||140||no ship||160||no ship|
|5||150||no ship||175||no ship||200||tier V (barely)|
|10||300||tier V (100)||350||tier V(150)||400||tier V(200)|
|18||540||tier V(340)||630||tier VI(30)||720||tier VI (120)|
|25||750||Tier VI(150)||875||tierVI(275)||1000||tier VI (400)|
In conclusion: By just playing the event, you are guaranties to get the tier V (you will atleast get 250 tokens), you are also likely to get the tier VI. After that the ships become meore and more unlikely, with a less than 50% chance (but not super unlikely) to get the tier VII and the tier IX being possible, but highly unlikely.
There might be a bias for extraordinary results, as those are most memorable, this should have little impact on the averages, as it includes both good and bad crate drops, but may make the confidence interval larger than it actually should be.
Finally I would like to apologise to
buckethed_joe who set up a survey earlier than me. I only made a quick search to check if there were others who were doing statistics, and managed to miss theirs. I highly sugest everyone to answer their (frankly more profesional survey)
I also asked people which server they play on and whether they had premium or not. Other than saying that it does not appear to have an impact on the drop rates, I did not have enough data to make any conclusions.
u/Leo_Apollo11 brought https://forum.worldofwarships.eu/topic/132296-your-eu-tokendrop-for-the-first-4-containers this forum thread to my attention, using thenumbers there as well, we get a drop rate of 38 +/- 5. So the drop rate is likely 40.
Additionally it appears that 10 has about twice the drop rate of 20,30,40 and 140.
Source: Original link
© Post "European tokens (preliminary) drop rates" for game World of Warships.
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