Good Afternoon folks!
This post is just my analysis on the problem which has been increasingly observed by the community where Teir 10 matches are more frequently ending in blowouts. I define a blowout as a battle where the winning side only looses a few ships at most, while the opposing tea is annilated often times quickly.
First I would like to refute some common suggestings on why this occurs as a whole.
Player Skill: The player skill level at teir X is a very improbable cause. When you consdier a sample of battles of lower teir, including their IX, it is not reasonable to assume that the teir X population is considerably less skilled. There may be a greater skill imbalance, but over the course of a larger sample this should be normalized and your just as likely to have the same distribution of skilled players on your team as the other.
X Ship is OP: While you can easily identify that this is in fact part of the problem, it is not the whole problem unto itself. Both sides are just as likely to have the same ships, especially since the match maker actually tries to do that. Furthermore the strongest of these ships are still unlikley to consistantly dominate a match. The results of most blow outs that I have reviewed generally don't show an increase in the matches where one player dominates the game alone. This seems close to the distribution available prior to this problem's emergence.
An abstract overview of the problem (as I see it)
The root of the problem as I see it is the change in meta towards generally fast, rapid firing, fire starting ships which is most prevalant at Teir X where the majority of the extreme cases reside.
While HE spam alone is manageable with skill, the way players are managing this threat is changing battle behaviours in a way that encourages a blowout meta. In particular with the way it has influenced the playstyle of two core ship classes.
HE metta Influence on Destroyers
Destroyers have arguably the most important role in the game. They are spotters, their presence stalls pushes with a torp threat, and we also depend on them for caps. In today's meta this has changed their behavior so they are far more cautious (or dead) because mistakes are almost always fatal now. Since DD's often scout ahead for the push, this puts the breaks on that happening early game and that causes other people to be more cautious, or band together in a lemming train. Lemming trains either end up steam rolling, or massacured causing a game to snowball quickly. It is common for DD's change their playstile in one of two ways.
- The DD will stay more closely to the fleet, and excercise extreme caution.
- Why? Spotting has always been a destroyer players greatest fear. Even gunboats don't want to be visible when in a cap normally. In the past, a dd could get away with being spotted, even if a bit maimed. HOWEVER so many rapid fire HE spam ships with low detectability being spotted in a forward position is fatal the majority of the time. Instantly there will be spam comming from all directions.
- How? The ones that survive will stay close to the fleet if a CV is around until they have done their initialy DD hunting passes with the rocket planes. This means they are not near the caps, and will normally avoid them in the early phases. Later they will float around and only enter when they are sure its safe. If they get caught by radar then with the abundance of HE spam ships likely around they will likely be dead if not usless.
- The dd will push the cap early and try to stay safe at the edge. That works sometimes. However if they get surprised by a CV plane, or an enemy dd with better concealment, then its lights out. A There almost always seems to be one per game that will die in this way. The smart ones will take caution and try to view which ships are where on the map, and take note of the ones missing assuming they are opposite to them and only push if they think they can manage it. This meta is simply too unforgiving for doing this, and mistakes are more painful than before often being fatal due to the massive amount of dps available.
HE metta Influence on Battleships
Battleships often where the ones that held the line, or added punch to the push. Prior to the change it was clommon for some battleships suitable to the task to be a bit more fowrad, but not push. They would hold that general position and shoot until an opportunity presented itself. These where key battleships because when an opportunity arose they often did the pushing. Some battleships where better at this than others because they could handle the damage they needed to absorb.
Since the HE metta has become so extreme, they have been pushed further back almost to the rear line of battleships. While they venture forwrad at times, they can't stay there unless its with great protection from islands. The reason is once visible they will be subject to extreme HE spam DPS which breaks their tank too quickly. You cannot stay exposed like this too long, so you often end up doing a cycle of poke and retreat. While it was always the case that if you over extend your dead, the boundries of overextension have pushed further back with the Smolinsk since it can confortably fire at the edge of its ranges, and from open water with their smoke and difficult to kill ship model.
The overall result
With destroyers not providing the same inteligence as before, each team will have more difficulty re-positioning to meet incomming threats. They simply don't see them comming like they did before. With battleships unable to hold forward defensive positions for significant lengths of time, it makes a breakthrough almost impossible to stop or reverse. Additionally its easier to find yourself out of position if you poke and run from the HE spam (attempting to go dark).
This makes a very effective model when you "lemming train" by pushing blindly (since your not likely to have as much intel from DD) as a group. Each time this happens its likely to result in absolute annilation if you run into a well fortified position, or complete obliteration of the enemy if you catch them in bad positions (Speed and Aggression are huge factors in CQC in real life and for winning battles). The end result is that one team is going to get routed, and the other bairley scathed.
My 2 cents
Source: Original link
© Post "Observation on State of Game: Teir X blowout frequency" for game World of Warships.
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