Spinfoil hats on everyone!
So remember how we were all worried about balancing the population for Guardian Games, being that Hunters make up an estimated slightly more than half the population? We received this message from Maurice, the CM for Germany: "In the Guardian Games, the excess number of hunters is statistically taken into account when determining the results. All three classes have the same chances!" So there’s confirmed to be some form of balancing mechanic at play, something that Bungie at large has yet to discuss exactly how this gets calculated.
Yesterday, we watched as Hunters rose to first place and then stayed there all day. It appeared that Titans and Warlocks has some back and forth, but right at the end the Titans prevailed, mind you still far beneath the Hunter flagmark. Now today, which should theoretically be almost no different from yesterday, we see Titans rise to the top and Hunters sitting in second place? Why? How? Heir Apparent, even if you’re running all three classes all medals and bounties every day, is still as of yet unobtainable, so theoretically roughly the same population playing yesterday should be playing today. Are you saying there’s a big enough player change in effort to allow for yesterday’s landslide victory to mean nothing today?
Or did Bungie’s hidden mechanic kick in?
Now we get into my conspiracy theory here: The Games are rigged, and rigged for a tie. I know what you’ll say: “Bungie specifically said they won’t monkey with the numbers to have another class win!”. Yeah, and they also said they’d be toning down on Eververse. Hear me out on this:
First off, the winner is based off of number of daily wins. From the TWAB: “At the end of the event, your daily placements will be combined for a final score.” Being that the event is running for 3 weeks, this means that the number of available days is perfectly divisible by 3. Seems awfully convenient that a 3-way battle for a winner could result in a 3-way tie. Combine that with the fact that it appears that there’s some influence already happening based on the major shift on the second day, it wouldn’t be hard at all for Bungie to manipulate this into every class evening out. I’m not saying it will evenly rotate every day with a new winner, but over the course of the next 19 days it could pan out.
Second, look at the rewards. Not the dismantle junk you get for doing medals, but the winners rewards: “a permanent reminder of which class wins being added to the Tower for the rest of the year” and “your item’s metallic appearance locks … for the rest of the year”. Bungie has avoided directly stating that one class is better than the others up to this point, instead saying that they each have their own value (just ignore the favoritism in treatment). Why would they attempt to polarize the community by having a quantifiable “we’re better” added to the tower? It’s a YEAR, and that’s assuming that in a year we’re actually getting another guardian games. What makes more sense; having a winner that then causes gloating an infighting amongst the community over the next year OR having a tie so that they can say that we’re all great and no one is better than anyone else? Plus, the class items all have the default icon as the gold winners style. Not a smoking gun, but an interesting point.
In summary: GGames is rigged, nothing matters, get Heir Apparent and then who cares about farming kills for medals?
Edit: I'm not saying that I think it should be rigged, I'm just saying it's likely in Bungie's self interest and the clues point that direction.
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