I know I'm not the first to do this, but since I still see a ton of questions on this subreddit about lost sectors I thought I'd make a post going over my findings from doing more lost sectors than any reasonable person ever should.
First of all, some general assumptions that apply to all of my runs:
- All runs were done on Legend difficulty
- I killed all champions on every run and didn't use any cheese/skips
- All runs were done this season on my hunter after I had got the new exotic (Omnioculus)
- I play on PC, though I doubt the platform makes a difference to drop rates
With that out of the way, let's get into it.
What is the drop rate for legend lost sectors?
This is what most people are probably interested in. I tracked a total of 604 lost sectors and got 138 exotic drops for a total drop rate of 22.85%. Using some statistical analysis in R based on this article we can say with 95% confidence that the true drop rate is between 19.7% and 26.4%.
How many runs do I need to do to get an exotic?
I see a lot of people that have a bit of a misunderstanding about how drop rates work in practice. Even though we can be fairly confident that on average you will get an exotic drop for every 4 to 5 runs that you do, this doesn't mean that you will only need to do 5 runs to get an exotic. Over a very large number of runs you will most likely see a similar drop rate, but because we're working with random chance you can see very inconsistent rates over a small number of runs. For example, I went as many as 20 runs without an exotic. Using some more statistics we can get an idea how many runs you will probably have to do.
Assuming the worst case scenario of a 19.7% drop rate, there is only a 66% chance that you will have an exotic after 5 runs. On average most people will get an exotic within their first 5 runs, but a large portion won't. After 10 runs this jumps up to an 89% chance of at least one exotic drop. Finally, after 20 runs there is a 99% chance you have gotten an exotic drop. The takeaway here is that there is a fairly good chance that you'll need to do 10-15 runs to get an exotic drop so don't get too discouraged if you haven't got one after your first few runs. This also works in reverse. I had times where I got as many as 5 exotics in a row. End of the day, RNG gonna RNG.
Are there any factors that affect lost sector drop rate??
Reading through posts I've seen a lot of questions around what affects drop rate. I'll do my best to look at several factors based on my data, but more research is needed to give a definite answer on most of these.
One thing I've wondered while doing this is if there was any sort of effect from completing lost sectors too fast, such as a loot lockout. I'm definitely not the fastest out there, but I can consistently run Veles Labyrinth in around 2 minutes. If we compare my average times and drop rate between Veles and a sector I'm much slower at (Bunker E-15) there doesn't seem to be any significant effect from the time it takes. That said, I don't have enough data to rule it out. At the very least, I wouldn't worry about speedrunning unless you are much, much faster than I am.
|Lost Sector||Avg Overall||Avg Exotic||Avg No Drop||Exotic Drops||Total Runs||Drop Rate|
Unfortunately I did not keep track of my score per run. I did make sure to get platinum status every time and would recommend doing so because it doesn't really take any extras time and I've heard a number of anecdotes that it makes a difference. I may try to collect a dataset of non-platinum finishes to see if it makes a difference, but no promises. I don't have any reason to believe that the actual value of the score has any effect, but since I don't have data to analyze here, I can't say for sure.
Your light level when farming is important in that farming at a higher light will go faster, but I don't believe that it has any affect on drop rate directly. I started farming at ~1300 and have continued up to ~1330. I've seen no difference in overall drop rate throughout that time. I haven't tested with a LL below the recommendation though, so there is some chance that has an effect. Even if it did though, it would have to be significant to make up for the greater speed from running at or over level.
Which lost sector is best for farming?
This will partially be down to personal preference, but there are definitely some that are better than others. I saw no significant difference in drop rate between sectors, but there is a marked difference in how fast they can be completed. My personal favorites are Veles Labyrinth, Exodus Garden 2A, and Perdition as these can all be easily done in less than 5 minutes even with a non-meta loadout. With some practice and optimization you can get the runs down to between 2 and 3 minutes. As a general idea, here are my personal fastest runs and average times for each sector:
|Sector||Best Time||Average Time|
|Exodus Garden 2A||2:16||4:30|
|K1 Crew Quarters||06:00||8:10|
Do keep in mind that I ran the moon sectors significantly less than the rest (<15 runs each), so I could likely get faster times with some more practice. Nonetheless, I wouldn't really recommend any of them for farming except K1 Crew Quarters as they just take too long for my liking.
This is already probably far more than anyone wants to read about lost sectors, so I'll end here. Please don't hesitate to let me know if you have any questions about my data, loadouts used, or lost sectors in general. Happy to answer anything that I can. Now get out there and get some exotics. Happy hunting Guardians!
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© Post "I’ve completed 600+ Legend Lost Sectors this season. Here are some stats and analysis (plus Lost Sector FAQ)" for game Destiny 2.
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