Over the course of 40 days I tracked armor focused Umbral engrams for a total of 1000. Having not much else to do in the extended season , I figured having a little project like this would help.
Solstice helped with this and I also opened 1000 solstice packages and the results are presented in a separate post.
It was also to verify that those feelings of "mostly res/str pieces" or "its mostly class items" were simply short-term streaks and confirmation bias and validate that the RNG is working "as expected".
Note this is different than "as intended" as we don't know what sort of manipulation may or may not be done with RNG rolls in different areas. I noticed a marked increase this season of posts about powerful/pinnacle drops streaks. I myself was the victim of a 6 energy slot in a row streak. We simply don't have enough community data on that one.
Now, the results!
Stats about armor slot and and stat distributions
The rest of the stats are based on the 787 non class item stat rolls.
Total stat roll distribution:
|Total||Count||%||% Total or higher|
The last column can be used to determine the chance off getting that total or higher. For example: 26% of the rolls were at least 60 stat total.
Number of individual stats with a 2, the minimum for a single stat:
|Number of 2 stat||Count||Rate %|
Averages for individual stats:
Number of times a stat showed as the highest in it's group (ties separate):
|Top 3 tie||24||3.0|
|Bot 3 tie||23||2.9|
Number of times a stat was 20 or greater:
Summary and miscellaneous musings
TL/DR; The armor focused umbrals offer a reasonable chance at getting a good build before the end of the season. They are rolling consistent with RNG expectations and within the theories developed by
/u/Testifye abut a year ago.
Overall the distributions look consistent with expectations for RNG. Very close to 20% for each piece, and the averages and number of times a certain stat is the highest in its group (mob/res/rec)(dis,int,str) is also fairly equal.
These were all done with the recaster fully upgraded and the perk which gives a chance at a higher stat roll. Unfortunately, I don't know of a way to determine on which pieces the perc proc'd as there is overlap in the stat totals.
Compared to the Solstice armor drops which I evaluated in another post, you can see the effect of the "high stat roll" flag. The Solstice pieces have an overall higher stat distribution, a better chance at a 60+, higher averages and higher rates of 20 or over stats.
For farming high stat gear, raids and dungeons are your best bet for number of opportunities per time spent. However, as a solo player , Umbrals are an alternative that is still not too bad. Some armor crafting sources have suggested a 20/15 piece is a piece worth keeping. Note that means that one stat will be in the top group (mob/res/rec) and one in the bottom (dis,int,str). I've never seen a piece with more than 12 with a 20+ in a "competing" stat, even in "high stat" pieces.
I had 178 pieces meet that criteria or 17.8% chance of an armor focused umbral dropping a "decent" piece. There are 9 combinations of top/bottom stats, 18 if the order is important (ie, the 20 must be in the top or the bottom). So, this reduces the chances to about 2% if order is not important or 1% if it is. At 20 umbrals a day, that's an average 5 days to have a decent chance of a 20/15 piece in the stat distribution you want.
Given that umbrals are dropping from everything and some are complaining about it filling up their inventory and postmaster , 20/day isn't too difficult to get. On the flip side, for some the umbral pool is still being shared with the god roll weapon chase which would cut into it. Overall though, I would say that just playing the game and using some of the passively obtained umbrals for armor should result in a decent build over the course of the season.
I'd like to further analyze the stats according to the "4-block" theory as posted by u/Testifye here. His post contains a link to the original theory by u/JpDeathBlade. Thanks to both of you for pioneering the way to understanding how stats are generated.
I've never seen a piece that has more than the 34 theoretical maximum in a group (cluster). "High stat roll" pieces get an adjustment but I don't believe its in the form of a "bonus block" as that should result in clusters over 34. It seems to be as bonus stat points but I haven't found a pattern as to how they are allocated.
Source: Original link
© Post "Results of 1000 Armor focused Umbral engrams." for game Destiny 2.
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